Blake Daniels, March 27, 2023

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The Philadelphia 76ers look to right the ship on Monday night against the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center.

Philadelphia has dropped back to third place in the East at 49-25 SU. The Sixers had moved to second place but after losing two in a row and with the Boston Celtics winning their last three games played, Philly is back as the No. 3 team in their conference. The Sixers are, however, still 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played.

Denver is looking to hold on to the top seed in the Western Conference team standings. The Nuggets are currently three games up on the Memphis Grizzlies. They are just 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played but the Nuggets have won three in a row heading to this contest.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have lost back-to-back games and with games running out in the regular season, they need to regain their momentum back. In their last game, the Sixers were blown out by the Phoenix Suns 125-105. Tyrese Maxey led the team with 37 points and 7 rebounds while Joel Embiid finished with 28 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists in a losing effort.

Philly is averaging 115.2 points per game this season but scored just 106 in their most recent outing. The Sixers have also been a very good defensive team this year at 110.5 points per game allowed but gave up 125 points the last time out. James Harden is questionable with an Achilles issue.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are getting their swagger back. Denver has won three straight games and they head to this game after a solid 129-106 win over the Milwaukee Bucks. Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets with 31 points, 6 rebounds, and 11 assists while Jamal Murray added 26 points, 6 rebounds, and 9 assists. Michael Porter Jr. added 19 points and 7 rebounds for the Nuggets.

Denver is scoring 166.8 points per game this season. They scored 129 points in their previous game and shot 52.8% from the floor and 41.8% from deep in that game. The Nuggets allowed only 106 points in their previous game but are giving up 112.7 points per game this season.

76ers vs Nuggets 3/27/23 SU Prediction

These teams have split their last 10 head-to-head meetings but the Sixers have won two out of their last three meetings. Philadelphia is 1-3 SU in their last four games played in Denver.

Philadelphia 76ers SU trends:

• The 76ers are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games played.
• The 76ers are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games played on the road.
• The 76ers are 5-0 SU in their last five games against the Northwest Division.
• The 76ers are 19-9 SU in their last 28 games played against the Western Conference.
• The 76ers are 8-6 SU in their last 14 games played on the road against the Western Conference.

Denver Nuggets SU trends:

• The Nuggets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Nuggets are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games played at home.
• The Nuggets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played on a Monday.
• The Nuggets are 18-11 SU in their last 29 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Nuggets are 10-4 SU in their last 14 home games played against the Eastern Conference.

The Nuggets passed their first test when they beat the Milwaukee Bucks last Saturday. Denver outscored Milwaukee 66-40 in the second half with Jamal Murray scoring 26 points and the Nuggets playing good defense.

On Monday, they will face the third-best team in the East the Philadelphia 76ers. Philadelphia is coming off a 20-point loss to the Phoenix Suns last Saturday night. The defeat was their second straight and third, in their last four games played overall.

The main reason for Philly’s recent struggles is the absence of James Harden who has missed the team’s last three games with a sore Achilles. Harden leads the NBA in assists at 10.8 assists per game while also putting up 21.4 points per game this season. The Beard is traveling with the team and could play on Monday but head coach Doc Rivers says that they will be prioritizing his health over anything else.

A sidelight in Monday’s game is the matchup between Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid who are the top two candidates for the MVP award. Embiid leads the league in scoring at 33.3 points per game while Jokic is averaging a triple-double this year.

The last time these two teams met was in a nationally-televised game last January 28 in Philadelphia where the Sixers won 126-119 behind 47 points from Joel Embiid. You can be sure that Jokic wants to get back at his rival, although probably not for the MVP award but for the Nuggets to stay on top of the West.

Denver is currently 3.5 games up on the 2nd-seeded Memphis Grizzlies and the Nuggets are looking to enter the playoffs with homecourt advantage throughout the entire Western Conference playoffs. The Nuggets have won three in a row after losing four straight games.

The Nuggets are playing well right now and just decimated the Milwaukee Bucks who lead the East in their last game. Denver has won three in a row and has momentum here. Meanwhile, the Sixers are struggling right now and they will be without Harden again.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets

76ers vs Nuggets ATS Prediction

The 76ers are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games played against the Nuggets. Philadelphia is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games played in Denver.

Philadelphia 76ers ATS trends:

• The 76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• The 76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The 76ers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• The 76ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record.
• The 76ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The 76ers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.

Denver Nuggets ATS trends:

• The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Nuggets are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games.
• The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
• The Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
• The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Nuggets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Nuggets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
• The Nuggets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game
• The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

The Nuggets are showing their resilience when they need it most. Denver is just 5-5 in their last 10 games played but has won three in a row heading to this contest. Denver has a three-game lead over Memphis with 8 left to play so things are looking good for them right now.

During this current three-game streak, the Nuggets have scored an average of 118.2 points per game during that span while shooting a torrid 52% from the floor and 46% from downtown.

Meanwhile, the Sixers have a solid defensive unit but in their last two road games, they have allowed their opponents to score over 120 points. Despite having Joel Embid, they are not a very good rebounding team. Against Denver, they won’t get too many second-chance points here.

The Nuggets are playing much better on offense right now. They should be able to put up more than enough points for the Sixers to match. I think Jokic wins this round.

Prediction: Nuggets -5.5

76ers vs Nuggets Over/Under Prediction

The under is 6-2 in the last 8 games played between these two teams. The total has gone under in four out of the last five games played in Denver.

Philadelphia 76ers over/under trends:

• The under is 5-0 in the 76ers’ last 5 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The under is 6-1 in the 76ers’ last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 5-1 in the 76ers’ last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 3-1-1 in the 76ers’ last 5 Monday games.
• The under is 5-2 in the 76ers’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 7-3 in the 76ers’ last 10 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• The over is 4-1 in the 76ers’ last 5 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

Denver Nuggets over/under trends:

• The under is 5-0 in the Nuggets’ last 5 games played overall.
• The under is 5-0 in the Nuggets’ last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-0 in the Nuggets’ last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-0 in the Nuggets’ last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets’ last 4 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 4-1 in the Nuggets’ last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 4-1 in the Nuggets’ last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.
• The under is 10-3-1 in the Nuggets’ last 14 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The under is 6-2 in the Nuggets’ last 8 versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The over is 7-3 in the Nuggets’ last 10 home games.
• The over is 19-9-1 in the Nuggets’ last 29 home games against a team with a winning road record.
• The over is 4-1 in the Nuggets’ last 5 Monday games.

The Sixers are scoring 115.7 points per game on the road this season. But that number has dropped to 113 points per game in their last three games. Philly play at a slow pace, averaging just 101.1 possessions per game. They will be facing a Denver team that s allowing just 110 points per game at home

The Nuggets are a high-scoring team at home at 120.8 points per game. But against the Sixers, they are putting up just 107.3 points per game in their last three games played. Denver also plays at 101.6 possessions per outing. This should be a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Under 229.5