Blake Daniels, June 23, 2022

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The Houston Astros and New York Yankees open a four-game series on Thursday night at Yankee Stadium. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 P.M. ET.

Houston is 43-25 on the season and they are 10 games above the Texas Rangers in the AL West Division. The Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 games played and have won their last three games. They swept the Mets 2-0 in their most recent series, including a 5-3 win on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are the best team in baseball and are the only squad in the big league to reach the 50-win plateau at this stage of the season. At 51-18, New York has established a big 12-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East Division.

Houston is 23-14 on the road this season while the Yankees are 29-7 at home this campaign. This is the first meeting between these two teams this season.

Houston Astros

The Astros head to the Bronx with a three-game winning streak. Houston leads the American League with 23 road wins this season. They are third behind the Dodgers and Yankees in the latest World Series betting boards at +700 odds.

Houston defeated the New York Mets 5-3 on Wednesday behind two home runs by Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez is having an MVP-type season with a .315 batting average, 21 home runs, 51 RBIs, and 45 runs scored.

Framber Valdez will open on top of the mound for the Astros. The 28-year-old left-hander from the Dominican Republic has started in a total of 13 games this season and has a record of 7-3 with an ERA of 2.78 and a WHIP of 1.15. Valdez has allowed 25 earned runs on 25 hits with 68 strikeouts and 28 walks in a total of 81.0 innings pitched.

In his last start, Valdez allowed three earned runs on eight hits in six innings pitched. He picked up the win as the Astros beat the White Sox 13-3 last Friday. Houston has a 7-1 record in his last eight starts.

New York Yankees

The Yankees have the best record in the majors and they are the only team with at least 50 wins so far this season. New York currently has the second-best odds to win the World Series at +450 with only the LA Dodgers ahead of them on the betting boards.

New York came back to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays 5-4 on Wednesday behind two home runs from Aaron Judge. Judge leads MLB with 25 homers this season. He is also ranked 6th with 50 RBIs in the year. Meanwhile, Anthony Rizzo ranks 5th with 19 home runs and 8th overall with 49 RBIs.

Jameson Taillon will oppose Valdez on Thursday night. The 30-year-old right-hander is 8-1 with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.05 in a total of 13 starts this season. Taillon has conceded 22 earned runs on 68 hits with 60 strikeouts and 9 walks in a total of 73.1 innings pitched this season.

Taillon got the win in his last start as he threw 5.2 scoreless innings during a 4-0 win over the Toronto Blue Jays last Saturday. The Yankees are 11-1 in Taillon’s last 12 starts including wins in each of his last five outings.

Astros vs  Yankees Betting Prediction

The Astros are 2-4 in their last six games against the Yankees. Houston is also 5-11 in their last 16 head-to-head games versus the Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

The Astros are:

• 35-16 in their last 51 games played overall.
• 8-2 in their last 10 road games.
• 22-6 in their last 28 Thursday games.
• 16-5 in their last 21 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 20-8 in their last 28 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 27-11 in their last 38 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 41-18 in their last 59 Game 1s of a series.
• 25-11 in their last 36 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 6-0 in their last 6 against a team with a winning record.
• 5-0 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 13-3 in their last 16 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 35-16 in their last 51 games on grass.
• 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog.
• 1-4 in their last 5 versus the American League East Division.
• 1-4 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

The Yankees are:

• 43-12 in their last 55 overall.
• 52-19 in their last 71 home games.
• 7-2 in their last 9 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 41-12 in their last 53 games as a betting favorite.
• 39-12 in their last 51 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 38-13 in their last 51 Games 1s of a series.
• 50-19 in their last 69 games as a home favorite.
• 38-15 in their last 53 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• 38-15 in their last 53 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 5-2 in their last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 87-36 in their last 123 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 38-17 in their last 55 home games versus a left-handed starter.
• 36-17 in their last 53 games against a left-handed starter.
• 5-0 in their last 5 Thursday games.
• 4-0 in their last 4 against the American League West Division.
• 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• 0-5 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Framber Valdez has completed six innings in 11 out of his last 13 starts. He brings a solid 2.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and 68/28 K: BB ratio in 81 innings pitched this season. However, Valdez has not faced a lineup as formidable as the Yankees this season. The left-hander only has one career start at Yankee Stadium and although that came way back in 2019, he was battered for five runs in 3 ⅓ innings pitched

Meanwhile, Jameson Taillon shut out the Blue Jays in a win during his last start. He is also having a good season with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.05. The Yankees have been victorious in 11 out of his last 12 starts.

These are two very good pitchers on the mound and it won’t be a surprise if both pitch well in this matchup. However, the Yankees have displayed much better offense than the Astros. New York is on a roll right now and maybe playing the best baseball among all MLB teams. I’ll take my chance on the Yankees here.

Prediction: New York Yankees

Astros vs Yankees Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in two out of the last three head-to-head meetings between these two teams. However, the over is 3-1-1 in their last five meetings in New York.

Houston Astros over/under betting trends:

• Under is 38-17-1 in the Astros’ last 56 games played overall.
• Under is 25-10 in the Astros’ last 35 road games.
• Under is 29-12-1 in the Astros’ last 42 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 36-16-1 in the Astros’ last 53 on grass.
• Under is 7-2 in the Astros’ last 9 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 6-2 in the Astros’ last 8 games as an underdog.
• Under is 6-2 in the Astros’ last 8 versus a team with a winning record.
• Under is 14-5-1 in the Astros’ last 20 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 8-3 in the Astros’ last 11 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 4-1 in the Astros’ last 5 against the American League East Division.
• Over is 4-1 in the Astros’ last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 5-1 in the Astros’ last Game 1s of a series.
• Over is 5-1 in the Astros’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

New York Yankees over/under betting trends:

• Over is 6-4 in the Yankees’ last 10 games played.
• Over is 4-2 in the Yankees’ last six games played at home.
• Over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 10-3 in the Yankees’ last 13 Games 1s of a series.
• Over is 6-2 in the Yankees’ last 8 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Under is 34-30-2 in the Yankees’ last 66 games against the American League
• Under is 18-15 in the Yankees’ last 33 home games against the American League.
• Under is 4-0 in the Yankees’ last 4 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 versus American League West.
• Under is 24-8-1 in the Yankees’ last 33 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
• Under is 12-4-2 in the Yankees’ last 18 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 34-14-3 in the Yankees’ last 51 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

The Yankees and Astros are two of the best offensive teams in baseball but both teams have made their mark this season with elite pitching. New York’s pitching staff has the best team ERA and WHIP while allowing the lowest batting average entering Wednesday’s schedule. Meanwhile, the Astros rank third in ERA at 3.04 and fourth in WHIP at 1.13. Houston’s bullpen is the best in MLB with a 2.55 ERA while the Yankees are third at 2.96

The two starting pitchers have also been very good this season with Valdez having a 2.78 ERA and Taillon at 2.70. The under is also 20-16 when the Yankees are at home while the Astros have seen the under go 26-11 in their road games this season. With these, I’ll take the under in Game 1 of this series.

Prediction: Under 8.5