Blake Daniels, January 5, 2023

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The Boston Celtics look to get back on track by snapping a two-game losing streak. They will have to do it however in Dallas where they take on the red-hot Mavericks who have won seven straight games heading to Thursday’s contest.

Boston is 26-12 SU on the season and they own the best record in the NBA. However, their lead over the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets has been cut to just one game with their recent slump. The Celtics are just 5-7 SU in their last 12 games played.

 Meanwhile, the Mavericks are climbing the team standings after going 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played. Dallas is now 4th in the Western Conference team standings and they are just 2.5 games behind the top-seeded Denver Nuggets with their 22-16 SU record.

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics gave up 150 points to the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game and were blown out by 33 points on the road. Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 29 points while MVP candidate Jayson Tatum added 27. Payton Pritchard and Malcolm Brogdon each added 17 points off the Celtics’ bench.

Despite the loss, Boston is still the no. 1 team in the Eastern Conference but they are now just up by one game over the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets in the team standings. The Celtics are 11-7 SU on the road this season.

Boston is the top-scoring team in the NBA at 118.6 points per game this season. Tatum leads the team in scoring at 30.8 points per game while Brown is putting up 27.2 PPG. Brogdon is contributing 13.1 points per game while Marcus Smart is chipping in 11.1 PPG and Derrick White is the fifth player in double-digit scoring at 10 points per game.

Robert Williams is listed as day-to-day while Danilo Gallinari remains out for the Celtics.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are riding Luka Doncic’s torrid streak and have won their last seven games played. In their last game, Dallas came from behind to beat the Houston Rockets. The Mavs were led by Doncic who had 39 points and 12 rebounds. Christian Wood and Tim Hardaway Jr. each had 21 points while Spencer Dinwiddie added 11.

With the win, Dallas moved to 4th place in the Western Conference team standings and is now just 2.5 games off the leaders Denver Nuggets. The Mavs are 15-5 SU at home this season.

Dallas has the no. 6 best scoring defense in the league at 110.3 points per game allowed. Luka Doncic is the league’s top scorer at 34.3 PPG while leading the Mavs in assists at 8.9 dimes per contest, and rebounds at 8.8 boards per contest. Christian Wood is providing the chief support at 17.1 points per contest while Spencer Dinwiddie is averaging 16.1 points per game. Tim Hardaway Jr. is putting up 14.8 points per contest.

Celtics vs Mavericks SU Prediction

The Celtics are 1-3 SU in their last 4 games played against the Mavericks. Boston is also 3-9 SU in their last dozen games played in Dallas.

Boston Celtics SU trends:

• The Celtics are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Celtics are 11-7 SU in their last 18 games played on the road.
• The Celtics are 23-12 SU in their last 35 games played as betting favorites.
• The Celtics are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games played against the Western Conference.
• The Celtics are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the Southwest Division.

Dallas Mavericks SU trends:

• The Mavericks are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games played.
• The Mavericks are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played at home.
• The Mavericks are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Mavericks are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games as betting underdogs.
• The Mavericks are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played on a Thursday.

The Mavs have won seven in a row however, looking at their victims, only the New York Knicks have a winning record. Luka Doncic is red hot right now but the Celtics have plenty of good defenders to try and guard him. Dallas is just 19th in the league in scoring and with Doncic having a harder time, Boston’s no. 1 ranked offense will be too much to stop, even for a Mavs team that ranks 5th in scoring defense.

Boston is also coming off back-to-back losses and will have the extra effort to get back on track. Meanwhile, the Mavs have won seven in a row, mostly against low-tier opponents. With the Celtics among the best teams in the league this season, this game will be more difficult than what the Mavs have seen in recent games.

The Celtics are the more talented team. They are also the more physical team. Boston returns to the winning column with a win over the Mavericks.

Prediction: Boston Celtics -135

Celtics vs Mavericks ATS Prediction

The Celtics are 2-1 ATS in their last three games played against the Mavericks. Boston is also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played in Dallas.

Boston Celtics ATS trends:

• The Celtics are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• The Celtics are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• The Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
• The Celtics are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The Celtics are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The Celtics are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Celtics are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Dallas Mavericks ATS trends:

• The Mavericks are 10-22-2 ATS in their last 34 games overall.
• The Mavericks are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
• The Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Mavericks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
• The Mavericks are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Mavericks are 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 8-18-2 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight-up win.
• The Mavericks are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The Mavericks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

Boston’s offense hasn’t looked itself during this road trip as has their defense which has allowed 123 and 150 points in their last two outings. But f there’s a game where the Celtics can turn it around, it’s this one as they are staring at only their second three-game losing streak this season if they lose again.

Make no mistake, the Mavericks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now and Luka Doncic has been on a tear. However, Dallas hasn’t played a team as good as Boston during their current winning run. And the Celtics are trying to avoid a 3-game skid here.

Dallas has great defense but they do not have the offense to match the Celtics’ scoring here. Prediction: Celtics -2.5

Celtics vs Mavericks Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in four out of the last six games played between these two teams. The under is also 2-1-1 in their last four games played in Dallas.

Boston Celtics over/under trends:

• The under is 9-3-1 in the Celtics’ last 13 road games.
• The under is 7-1 in the Celtics’ last 8 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600.
• The under is 3-1-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 9-4 in the Celtics’ last 13 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 6-1 in the Celtics’ last 7 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The over is 8-2 in the Celtics’ last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The over is 6-2 in the Celtics’ last 8 Thursday games.

Dallas Mavericks over/under trends:

• The over is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 overall.
• The over is 4-0 in the Mavericks’ last 4 home games.
• The over is 4-0 in the Mavericks’ last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-0 in the Mavericks’ last 5 Thursday games.
• The over is 9-1 in the Mavericks’ last 10 games versus a team with a winning % above .600.
• The over is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 19-6-1 in the Mavericks’ last 26 home games against a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
• The under is 29-11-1 in the Mavericks’ last 41 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
• The under is 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last 6 games playing on 2 days’ rest.

The Mavericks don’t have the firepower to match Boston’s offensive weaponry. Dallas also has the second-lowest adjusted pace rating in the league and to be able to keep this game competitive, they need to slow this game down and hold down the Celtics’ scoring machine.

While Boston is the top-scoring team in the NBA, they also have the 10th-best adjusted defensive rating in the NBA. With Dallas only 19th in the NBA in scoring, I expect the Celtics to slow them even down as far as putting up points is concerned.

This should end up as a defensive battle with neither team looking to push the pace. I think this will be a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Under 231