Blake Daniels, October 14, 2022

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The Carolina Panthers travel to the City of Angels to take on the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.

Carolina is 1-4 SU on the season and is at the bottom of the NFC South Division. The Panthers lost their first two games of the season to the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants by a combined margin of 5 points. They finally got on board when they defeated the New Orleans Saints 22-14. Carolina has since suffered back-to-back double-digit losses to the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers.

Los Angeles is 2-3 on the campaign and they are just 2nd in the NFC West Division. The Rams lost to the Bills in the NFL Kickoff Game but bounced back with back-to-back victories against the Atlanta Falcons and the Arizona Cardinals. However, the Los Angeles offense has scored a combined 19 points in their last two games which ended up as losses to the 49ers and Dallas Cowboys.

Carolina Panthers

Carolina looks like it’s headed to another disaster season. Not only are the Panthers 1-4 to start the season, their starting QB got hurt last week and their head coach was fired after their last loss.

Carolina ranks 28th in passing offense at only 181.6 yards per game. They are 27th in rushing offense at just 89.8 yards per contest. The Panthers are tied for 24th in scoring at 18.6 points per outing. They are also tied for 11th in scoring defense at 24.4 points per game allowed.

Baker Mayfield leads the team with 962 passing yards with 4 TDs but he won’t be playing in this game due to injury. Taking over will be PJ Walker who has completed just 5 passes with 60 passing yards this season. Christian McCaffrey leads the team with 324 rushing yards on 72 carries with 2 TDs. Robbie Anderson has caught 13 passes for 206 yards with 3 TD grabs.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are still trying to find the form that helped them win Super Bowl LVI last season. Los Angeles is just 2-3 SU on the season and they head to this home game with back-to-back losses.

Los Angeles ranks 18th in passing at 237.4 yards per game this season. They are dead-last in rushing at 62.4 yards per contest. The Rams are 29th in the league in scoring at just 16.0 points per outing. Los Angeles has the 16th-best scoring defense in the league at 23.2 yards per game allowed.

Matthew Stafford has thrown for 1,323 passing yards with 5 TD passes. Cam Akers is the team leader in rushing with 151 rushing yards on 51 carries with one TD run. Meanwhile, Cooper Kupp has caught 49 passes for 527 receiving yards with 4 TD catches.

Who Wins?

The Panthers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games played against the Rams. Carolina has also won three out of the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.

Carolina Panthers SU trends:

• The Panthers are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games played.
• The Panthers are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played on the road.
• The Panthers are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games played against the NFC.
• The Panthers are 1-9 SU in their last 10 October games.

Los Angeles Rams SU trends:

• The Rams are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games played.
• The Rams are 1-2 SU in 3 road games played so far this season.
• The Rams are 5-0 SU in their last five games played against the NFC South Division.
• The Rams are 5-1 SU in their last 6 Sunday games.

Carolina suffered yet another embarrassing setback the last time out as they were easily beaten by the San Francisco 49ers 37-15. That defeat dropped the Panthers to 1-11 SU and ATS in their last 12 games played. That game proved to be the final straw as head coach Matt Rhule became the first head coach fired this season. Rhule went 11-27 SU in his tenure as Panthers head coach.

Aside from losing their head coach after the San Francisco game, the Panthers also lost quarterback Baker Mayfield to a high-ankle sprain. With Mayfield out, PJ Walker is expected to get the start for Carolina with Sam Darnold and Matt Corral also sidelined by injuries.

Life has been rough for Matthew Stafford in the last couple of weeks. Stafford was sacked seven times during a 24-9 road loss to the San Francisco 49ers two weeks ago. He was sacked five times last weekend when the Rams lost to the Dallas Cowboys 22-10 for the second consecutive defeat for the reigning Super Bowl champs.

Los Angeles has a talented backfield led by Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson Jr. but despite that, they are last in the NFL in rushing, averaging just 62.4 rushing yards per game this season. There’s no question that the Rams’ offense faltered against the Cowboys, 49ers, and Bills. But those are three of the top defenses in the NFL. The Panthers are far from their level so it will be interesting to see how good Stafford does here.

The Panthers rank only 25th in the league in scoring and PJ Walker starting won’t help that. With a big problem on offense, Carolina will look to their defense to win this game, by taking the case of Stafford. On the other hand, the Rams don’t need to show their might on defense in this game. For as long as the offense shows up, this should be an easy win.

Prediction: Los Angeles Rams -10

Panthers vs Rams ATS Predictions

The Panthers are 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 games played between these two teams. The favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four head-to-head meetings between the Panthers and Rams. The home team is also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games played.

Carolina Panthers ATS trends:

• The Panthers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
• The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• The Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• The Panthers are 6-20 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• The Panthers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight-up loss of more than 14 points.
• The Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 6.
• The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Panthers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
• The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss.
• The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC.
• The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on field turf.

Los Angeles Rams ATS trends:

• The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The Rams are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• The Rams are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 6.
• The Rams are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
• The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
• The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.

I’m not the type who lays double-digit chalk in the NFL and the Rams are obviously not the same team they were last season when they won it all. However, Los Angele is a team that has the talent and experience and despite losing in the previous two weeks, they have played better. The Rams also have the defense that can turn things around in a hurry.

Carolina is below average on both ends of the field. They are expected to be worse with Baker Mayfield out and playing in their first game with a new head coach. Walker will be making only his third NFL start. He has thrown 2 TD passes with 8 INTs. The Rams’ defense will even make it harder for Walker.

I’m going with the Rams here as the Panthers are just 1-11 SU and ATS in their last 12 games played.

Prediction: Rams -10

Panthers vs Rams Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in five out of the last 7 meetings between the Panthers and Rams. The under is also 5-2 in their last seven games played in Los Angeles.

Carolina Panthers over/under trends:

• Under is 8-2 in the Panthers’ last 10 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in the Panthers’ last 7 vs. NFC.
• Under is 9-4 in the Panthers’ last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in the Panthers’ last 5 games on field turf.
• Under is 4-1 in the Panthers’ last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Under is 7-2 in the Panthers’ last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Over is 7-2 in the Panthers’ last 9 games in Week 6.
• Over is 6-2 in the Panthers’ last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Los Angeles Rams over/under trends:

• Under is 6-1 in the Rams’ last 7 games overall.
• Under is 20-7 in the Rams’ last 27 home games.
• Under is 4-1 in the Rams’ last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• Under is 4-1 in the Rams’ last 5 vs. NFC.
• Under is 4-1 in the Rams’ last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 5-2 in the Rams’ last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• Under is 5-2 in the Rams’ last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Under is 20-8-1 in the Rams’ last 29 games in October.
• Under is 4-0 in the Rams’ last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Under is 3-0-1 in the Rams’ last 4 games in Week 6.
• Under is 6-0 in the Rams’ last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Under is 6-1 in the Rams’ last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in the Rams’ last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• Under is 5-1 in the Rams’ last 6 games on field turf.
• Over is 4-1 in the Rams’ last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in the Rams’ last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in the Rams’ last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

These teams have combined to score an average of 42.1 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 41.66 points per game in their most recent three encounters. The issue with this game is that Carolina will be playing without its starting QB and will be with a new head coach after Matt Rhule was fired.

There are plenty of things going on in Carolina right now. They were already a low-scoring team even before all these issues popped up. Those are good reasons to pick that these teams aren’t going over the total.

Prediction: Under 41.5