Blake Daniels, February 14, 2023

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The Boston Celtics visit the Milwaukee Bucks at the BMO Bradley Center on Tuesday night.

The Celtics are 41-16 SU on the season. They have the NBA’s best record and are also number 1 in the Eastern Conference and Atlantic Division. Boston has won its last four games played including a victory over the Memphis Grizzlies last weekend. They are 18-9 SU when playing on the road this season.

The Bucks are the best team in the Central Division at 39-17. Milwaukee is just 1.5 games back of Boston both in the East and in the league standings. The Buck have won their last 10 games played and their last 7 at home. Overall, the Bucks are 23-5 SU when playing at home this season.

Boston Celtics

Boston is on a four-game winning streak. The last time out, the Celtics defeated the Memphis Grizzlies 119-109. In that game, they outscored the Grizzlies 35-20 in the second quarter and never looked back. Derrick White led the Celtics with 23 points while Sam Hauser added 20. Al Horford and Jayson Tatum added 16 apiece while Robert Willams IIII had 10 points and 16 rebounds.

Jayson Tatum leads Boston in scoring at 30.5 points per game and rebounding at 8.6 boards grabbed per contest. Marcus Smart is scoring 11.1 points per game while leading the Celtics with 7.2 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Jaylen Brown is putting up 26.5 PPG this season while shooting at a 48.7% clip.

Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee ended a three-game road trip the last time out with a 119-106 win over the L.A. Clippers. The Bucks have not lost since January 23 and have won 10 in a row heading to this game. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 35 points while Brook Lopez posted a double-double with 22 points and 15 boards. Jrue Holiday added 19 points while Jevon Carter had 13 points off the bench.

Antetokounmpo is 4th in the league in scoring at 32.4 points per game. Holiday is averaging 19.1 points per game while leading the team in passing at 7.2 assists per game. Bobby Portis is contributing 14.4 points and 10.1 rebounds per game this season for the Bucks. Brook Lopez leads the Bucks with 2.5 blocks per game while also grabbing 6.6 rebounds per outing.

Celtics vs Bucks SU Prediction

The Celtics are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against the Bucks. Boston is also 2-1 SU in their last three games played in Milwaukee.

Boston Celtics SU trends:

• The Celtics are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played.
• The Celtics are 18-9 SU in their last 27 games played on the road.
• The Celtics are 12-5 SU in their last 17 home games against the Eastern Conference.
• The Celtics are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Celtics are 16-3 SU in their last 19 February games played.

Milwaukee Bucks SU trends:

• The Bucks are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Bucks are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games played at home.
• The Bucks are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Bucks are 12-4 SU in their last 16 home games against the Eastern Conference.
• The Bucks are 35-9 SU in their last 44 games played as betting favorites.

The Celtics and Bucks are the top two teams in the East and they have the two best records in the league. Boston is 14-16 SU and the Bucks are 1.5 games behind at 39-17 SU. The game will also feature a match-up between two of the best players in the NBA.

Milwaukee is led by Giannis Antetokounmpo who is 3rd in scoring at 32.4 points per game while also grabbing 12.3 boards per contest. Boston’s main man is Jayson Tatum who is putting up 30.5 points per game, 6th in the NBA while grabbing 8.6 rebounds per outing.

Tatum led the Celtics with 41 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals during their 138-119 win over the Bucks last December 25 in Boston. In that game, Giannis had 27 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists in the loss.

The Bucks beat the Clippers 119-106 in their most recent game last Friday. The win was their 10th straight victory. It’s the team’s first double-digit winning streak since winning 18 in a row in 2020. Giannis led the Bucks with 35 points while Brook Lopez had 22 points and 15 rebounds and Jrue Holiday added 19. The Bucks have won 12 out of their last 13 games played.

The Celtics defeated the Grizzlies 119-109 last Sunday despite Tatum shooting just 3-16 from the field with 16 points. Boston got a lift from Derrick White who scored 23 points and issued 10 assists. Sam Hauser made a career-high 6 three-pointers with 20 points scored.

Jayson Tatum is listed as doubtful with a non-covid illness. Boston played without Jaylen Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, and Marcus Smart due to injury. Brown and Smart could be out until after the All-Star break. Boston is still also without Danilo Gallinari while Robert Williams III and Grant Williams are questionable.

#NEBHInjuryReport (2/2):

Jayson Tatum (illness, non-COVID) – DOUBTFUL
Grant Williams (right elbow swelling) – QUESTIONABLE
Robert Williams (left ankle soreness) – QUESTIONABLE

— Boston Celtics (@celtics) February 13, 2023

Milwaukee will be without Bobby Portis while Khris Middleton and Jae Crowder are uncertain to play.

This would have been a great playoff preview if both teams were complete but they are not. Between the two, Boston has more names on the injured list including their top two best players in Tatum and Brown. Without those two, the Celtics are a different team. Against the red-hot Bucks team, Boston is at a huge disadvantage here.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

Celtics vs Bucks ATS Prediction

The Celtics are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 games played against the Bucks. Boston is also 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games played in Milwaukee.

Boston Celtics ATS trends:

• The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.
• The Celtics are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
• The Celtics are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 Tuesday games.
• The Celtics are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Milwaukee Bucks ATS trends:

• The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up win.
• The Bucks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 Tuesday games.
• The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The Bucks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• The Bucks are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games versus a team with a winning road record
• The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

Given Boston’s long injury list for this game, the Bucks have a big advantage. Tatum and Brown combine to score an average of 57.0 points per game this season. Imagine taking that number from the Boston score. This isn’t a good time for the Celtics to be short-handed.

The law of averages will soon catch up with the Bucks. If Boston were complete, this would have been the game. But they are not. I like the Bucks to cover this double-digit spread against a short-handed Boston team.

Prediction: Bucks -10

Celtics vs Bucks Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in three out of the last five games played between the Celtics and Bucks. The over is 7-2 in their last 9 meetings in Milwaukee.

Boston Celtics over/under trends:

• The under is 3-2 in the Celtics’ last 5 games played overall.
• The under is 20-8-1 in the Celtics’ last 29 road games.
• The under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 games played against the Central Division.
• The under is 13-4 in the Celtics’ last 17 road games against the Eastern Conference.
• The under is 10-1 in the Celtics’ last 11 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
• The under is 16-5 in the Celtics ‘last 21 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The over is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Milwaukee Bucks over/under trends:

• The under is 5-1 in the Bucks’ last 6 overall.
• The under is 13-6 in the Bucks’ last 19 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The under is 6-0 in the Bucks’ last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• The under is 5-1 in the Bucks’ last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the Bucks’ last 6 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the Bucks’ last 6 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 19-7 in the Bucks’ last 26 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 5-1 in the Bucks’ last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the Bucks’ last 6 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 14-5 in the Bucks’ last 19 home games.
• The over is 8-3 in the Bucks’ last 11 Tuesday games.
• The over is 10-4 in the Bucks’ last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record.
• The over is 5-2 in the Bucks’ last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• The over is 5-0 in the Bucks’ last 5 home games against a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

These teams hit the over the last time they played. But given the players that are absent on Tuesday, the scoring will be compromised. Both teams rank in the Top 5 in defense. Boston is 18-8-1 to the under this season and they are just 23rd in pace.

Without the 57.0 points per game of Tatum and Brown and the other absences from both sides, it’s hard to imagine these teams going over.

Prediction: Under 225