The LA Chargers visit the Las Vegas Raiders at the Allegiant Stadium on Thursday night in this battle of AFC West rivals.
The Raiders will be favored for only the second time in seven home games played at home this season. They are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS at the Allegiant Stadium. Las Vegas heads to this game after a 44-27 home loss against the Indianapolis Colts in their last game. The Chargers are coming off a 20-17 home win over the Atlanta Falcons but they are at the bottom of the AFC West at 4-9 SU. Las Vegas won the first meeting between these two teams 31-26.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been involved in nine games decided by one score or less. The Chargers lost the first seven of those games but have won the last two, including a 20-17 triumph over the Atlanta Falcons the last time out. Michael Badgely saved the day with a 43-yard field goal for the Chargers as time expired. LA won’t be heading to the playoffs this season at 4-9 but a win here will be good for their morale after they were blanked by the Patriots 45-0 one week earlier. The Chargers outgained the Raiders 440-320 and won the battle of first downs 26-16.
Justin Herbert has completed 66.3% of his passes and has thrown for 3,467 yards with 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Austin Ekeler leads the LA rushing attack with 407 rushing yards despite missing five games due to injury. However, Herbert leads the team with three rushing scores this season. Keenan Allen has caught 99 passes for 975 yards and 8 touchdowns to lead the receiving corps.
Los Angeles is in the Top 10 in offensive yards at 383.0 yards per game and passing yards at 270.4 per contest. They are also scoring just 22.8 points per game while allowing 27.8 points per game including 45 points to the Patriots in a game where the Chargers went scoreless.
The Las Vegas Raiders are still in the playoff hunt at 7-6. But they must win out to be able to have a chance at the postseason. The Raiders will host the Denver Broncos next and visit the Miami Dolphins to finish their regular season so they have a legit chance. But they will have to beat the Chargers first and LA is looking to avenge a 31-26 defeat earlier in the season. Las Vegas is looking to bounce back from a 44-27 home loss to the Colts which came after they needed a last-second pass by Derek Carr to get past the helpless Jets 31-28.
Derek Carr has completed 68.2% of his passes for 3,343 yards with 24 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Josh Jacobs leads the team with 831 rushing yards which are 8th best in the league. Tight end Darren Waller has been targeted 117 times with 84 catches for 817 yards with seven touchdowns. Daniel Carlson has made 38 of 39 extra points and 26 of 28 field goals including all four attempts from 50 yards or longer.
The Raiders are ranked 25th in the league against the run and it showed against the Colts as Las Vegas conceded 212 yards on the ground last week. They are also ranked 30th in scoring defense at 30.1 points per game allowed. Offensively, Las Vegas is scoring 26.9 points per game while gaining 369.3 yards of total offense per outing.
The Chargers are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games played. Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in their last five games played on the road, and 1-5 SU in their last six games played against the AFC. The Raiders are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played. Las Vegas is 1-4 SU in their last five games played at home, 4-12 SU in their last 16 December games, but 4-2 SU in their last six games played against the AFC West division. Head to head, the Raiders are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Chargers.
The Chargers edged the Atlanta Falcons 20-17 as one-point home favorites. The win was only their second in the last seven games. L.A. also snapped a six-game ATS skid in that game while hitting under for the third straight contest. Rookie QB Justin Herbert threw for 326 yards with two scores in their first meeting against the Raiders.
The Raiders promoted defensive line coach Ron Marinelli after firing defensive coordinator Paul Guenther after Sunday’s loss.
The Raiders have allowed 37.5 points per game in dropping three of their last four assignments. With Guenther gone, there are no more excuses for the Raiders if they want to make the playoffs.
Derek Carr has thrown five interceptions in his last four games after throwing just two in his first nine assignments. He will face the 7th ranked pass defense of the Chargers. I like LA to start by running the football. Once they get their ground groove, Herbert will have an easy time throwing the football, and the Los Angeles offense will get going. I like the Chargers to pick up the road upset here.
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played. The Chargers are 2-3-1 ATS in six road games played this season. Las Vegas is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Raiders are 2-3 ATS in their last five games played at home, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played against the AFC. Head to head, the Chargers are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played. Los Angeles is also 4-1 ATS when playing on the road against the Raiders.
The Chargers have their issues finishing games and all four of their wins have come against teams with losing records. Meanwhile, the Raiders have lost three of four games and have conceded 28 or more points per game in each of those games. Las Vegas has played terribly at home this season. There’s a chance that the Chargers will blow another lead and lose this game but given the Raiders’ current form, I won’t lay the chalk here. Nine of Los Angeles’ games this season have been decided by one score or less. I’ll take the Chargers and the plus points here.
Prediction: Chargers +3.5
The total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 games played by the Chargers. Los Angeles has seen the total go over in four out of their last five games played on the road. The over is also 4-2 in their last six games against the AFC West division. The total has gone over in 10 out of the last 13 games played by Las Vegas. The over is 5-1 in the Raiders’ last six games played at home. Head to head, the total has gone under in seven out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams but the over is 2-1 in their last three encounters.
The Chargers have struggled on the ground but the Raiders are ranked 25th against the run. The Raiders too, have not run the ball well as of late but they did put up 160 yards on the ground against the Chargers in their first meeting of the season. Las Vegas is just 25th against the pass and once the Los Angeles running game gets going, Justin Herbert will have his way against the Raiders secondary. Herbert is on track to win the AFC Offensive Rookie of the Year award and we’ll see why. Las Vegas won’t solve its defensive issues overnight and this should be a high-scoring game right from the start.
Prediction: Over 53
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