The Kansas City Chiefs hit the road and travel to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos at the Empower Field on Sunday.
Kansas City is 9-3 SU on the season and top of the AFC Conference along with the Super Bowl favorites Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs are, however, coming off a 27-24 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in a game where they squandered a 24-17 lead in the fourth quarter. That defeat snapped a five-game winning run for Kansas City.
Meanwhile, Denver is 3-9 SU on the season and has the second-worst record in the Conference behind only the 1-10 Houston Texans. The Broncos will return home after failing to score a touchdown in two out of their last three outings. Last week, the Broncos lost to the Baltimore Ravens 10-9 to extend their current losing skid to four games.
The Chiefs have dominated this match-up as Patrick Mahome is 9-0 SU against Denver in his career. Kansas City has won its last 13 head-to-head meetings with Denver.
The Chiefs looked invincible after winning five straight games entering last weekend. They looked on their way to victory with a fourth-quarter lead before collapsing and losing to the Cincinnati Bengals. Now Kansas City looks to get back on track and reassert its claim as the best team in the AFC.
Patrick Mahomes has completed 308-469 passes for a league-high 3,808 passing yards with 30 TDs and 8 INTs this season. Rookie RB Isiah Pacheco has rushed for 521 yards on 111 carries with 3 rushing TDs while tight end Travis Kelce has caught 968 yards on 77 receptions with 12 TD grabs.
Kansas City has the NFL’s top-ranked passing game at 306.5 yards per game this season. They are ranked just 17th in rushing with an average of 116.8 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs are also the top-scoring team in the NFL this season at 29.2 points per game and are 5th in scoring defense at 22.5 points per game allowed.
This has been a horrific season for a Denver Broncos team that was expected to contend for the playoffs after acquiring Russell Wilson during the offseason. Wilson has turned out to be a dud and the Broncos have struggled to generate offense all season long, ranking last in the league in scoring points. Now at 3-9, their playoff hopes are fading fast if not already gone.
Russell Wilson is just 215-358 on his passe with 2,558 passing yards, 8 TDs, and 5 INTs. Latavius Murray has 93 carries for 348 yards with 3 TDs to lead the Broncos. Meanwhile, Courtland Sutton is the team’s top pass catcher with 52 receptions with 688 yards and 1 TD catch.
The Broncos are 21st in passing at 212.3 yards per game this season. Denver is 24th on the ground with an average of 102.9 rushing yards per game. They are dead-last in scoring at just 13.8 points per game scored this season. Denver however has the 2nd best scoring defense in the league at 17.0 points per game conceded.
The Chiefs are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games played against the Broncos. Kansas City is also 7-0 SU in their last 7 road games played in Denver.
Kansas City Chiefs SU trends:
Denver Broncos SU trends:
Kansas City is known for its high-powered offense but in recent weeks, the Chiefs have struggled to score after the halftime break. Those struggles were on display last week when they were beaten by the Cincinnati Bengals. For the second straight game, QB Patrick Mahomes failed to connect on a passing TD in the second half. In their last four games, the Chiefs have been outscored 31-20 during the final frame.
The Chiefs’ running attack has picked up the slack during that stretch. KC’s ground game has averaged 143.3 yards per game over their last four games played and has scored three TDs in the last two games. Rookie running back Isiah Pacheco has been given a bigger role and is averaging 81 rushing yards per game during that period while scoring a rushing TD in each of their last two games played.
However, the Broncos’ offensive woes are worse. Denver has failed to produce consistent offense all season long. The Broncos are averaging just 11.3 points per game in their last four games. For the season that scoring average is better at 13.8 PPG but Denver is 0-4 SU during that stretch and they are still at the bottom of the league in the scoring department.
Russell Wilson has struggled mightily in Denver and has found the end zone just one time in his last three home games and only four times in his last seven games played. Their woes got worse when top wide receiver Courtland Sutton suffered a hamstring injury that limited him to one target in their last game. Sutton is questionable for Sunday.
Ultimately, the Chiefs should figure out their fourth-quarter struggles. Mahomes and his offense are too good to struggle for too long. While Denver has an excellent pass defense, Mahomes has the better offense. Against a paltry Broncos offense, the Chiefs don’t need to be explosive offensively to win the game. That’s not too much to ask
The Chiefs have lost back-to-back games only thrice under Mahomes, including only once in the Chiefs’ last 64 games played. Denver has not won on U.S. soil since September 25th. Their current scoring average is the lowest in the NFL in more than two decades.
If the Chiefs win and the Los Angeles Chargers lose on Sunday, Kansas City will clinch the AFC West Division for the seventh consecutive season. I think that KC has more than enough motivation to win this one.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played against the Broncos. Kansas City is also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in Denver. The road team is also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
Kansas City Chief ATS prediction:
Denver Broncos ATS prediction:
Given their loss to the Bengals last week, the Chiefs need to bounce back strong in Week 14 to get back on track. Now, what better place to vent out all their frustrations than in Mile High? The Chiefs have the most high-powered offense in the NFL. The Broncos have the worst-scoring offense in the league. Now that’s a clear mismatch on offense right there. Give me the Chiefs to win by double digits.
Prediction: Chiefs -9.5
The under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The over is 3-2 in the last five games played in Denver.
Kansas City Chiefs over/under trends:
Denver Broncos over/under trends:
Backing the under in a game involving the Denver Broncos continues to be one of the stronger trends in the NFL this season. The Broncos have gone under in each of their last 8 games played. Denver is the lowest-scoring team in the NFL and they play with one of the league’s top defenses.
When playing the Chiefs, the Broncos like to slow things down with their rushing attack and short-passing game. These have resulted in the under hitting six times in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these two teams.
Kansas City has a high-powered offense but they don’t need all of their offensive prowess to win this game.
Prediction: Under 43
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