Blake Daniels, December 9, 2022

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The Kansas City Chiefs hit the road and travel to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos at the Empower Field on Sunday.

Kansas City is 9-3 SU on the season and top of the AFC Conference along with the Super Bowl favorites Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs are, however, coming off a 27-24 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in a game where they squandered a 24-17 lead in the fourth quarter. That defeat snapped a five-game winning run for Kansas City.

Meanwhile, Denver is 3-9 SU on the season and has the second-worst record in the Conference behind only the 1-10 Houston Texans. The Broncos will return home after failing to score a touchdown in two out of their last three outings. Last week, the Broncos lost to the Baltimore Ravens 10-9 to extend their current losing skid to four games.

The Chiefs have dominated this match-up as Patrick Mahome is 9-0 SU against Denver in his career. Kansas City has won its last 13 head-to-head meetings with Denver.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs looked invincible after winning five straight games entering last weekend. They looked on their way to victory with a fourth-quarter lead before collapsing and losing to the Cincinnati Bengals. Now Kansas City looks to get back on track and reassert its claim as the best team in the AFC.

Patrick Mahomes has completed 308-469 passes for a league-high 3,808 passing yards with 30 TDs and 8 INTs this season. Rookie RB Isiah Pacheco has rushed for 521 yards on 111 carries with 3 rushing TDs while tight end Travis Kelce has caught 968 yards on 77 receptions with 12 TD grabs.

Kansas City has the NFL’s top-ranked passing game at 306.5 yards per game this season. They are ranked just 17th in rushing with an average of 116.8 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs are also the top-scoring team in the NFL this season at 29.2 points per game and are 5th in scoring defense at 22.5 points per game allowed.

Denver Broncos

This has been a horrific season for a Denver Broncos team that was expected to contend for the playoffs after acquiring Russell Wilson during the offseason. Wilson has turned out to be a dud and the Broncos have struggled to generate offense all season long, ranking last in the league in scoring points. Now at 3-9, their playoff hopes are fading fast if not already gone.

Russell Wilson is just 215-358 on his passe with 2,558 passing yards, 8 TDs, and 5 INTs. Latavius Murray has 93 carries for 348 yards with 3 TDs to lead the Broncos. Meanwhile, Courtland Sutton is the team’s top pass catcher with 52 receptions with 688 yards and 1 TD catch.

The Broncos are 21st in passing at 212.3 yards per game this season. Denver is 24th on the ground with an average of 102.9 rushing yards per game. They are dead-last in scoring at just 13.8 points per game scored this season. Denver however has the 2nd best scoring defense in the league at 17.0 points per game conceded.

Chiefs vs Broncos SU Prediction

The Chiefs are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games played against the Broncos. Kansas City is also 7-0 SU in their last 7 road games played in Denver.

Kansas City Chiefs SU trends:

• The Chiefs are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Chiefs are 4-2 SU in 6 road games played this season.
• The Chiefs are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games played against the AFC West Division.
• The Chiefs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played in December.

Denver Broncos SU trends:

• The Broncos are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games played.
• The Broncos are 2-3 SU in their last 5 home games played.
• The Broncos are 0-7 SU in their last 7 games played against the AFC West Division.
• The Broncos are 2-5 SU in their last 7 December games played.

Kansas City is known for its high-powered offense but in recent weeks, the Chiefs have struggled to score after the halftime break. Those struggles were on display last week when they were beaten by the Cincinnati Bengals. For the second straight game, QB Patrick Mahomes failed to connect on a passing TD in the second half. In their last four games, the Chiefs have been outscored 31-20 during the final frame.

The Chiefs’ running attack has picked up the slack during that stretch. KC’s ground game has averaged 143.3 yards per game over their last four games played and has scored three TDs in the last two games. Rookie running back Isiah Pacheco has been given a bigger role and is averaging 81 rushing yards per game during that period while scoring a rushing TD in each of their last two games played.

However, the Broncos’ offensive woes are worse. Denver has failed to produce consistent offense all season long. The Broncos are averaging just 11.3 points per game in their last four games. For the season that scoring average is better at 13.8 PPG but Denver is 0-4 SU during that stretch and they are still at the bottom of the league in the scoring department.

Russell Wilson has struggled mightily in Denver and has found the end zone just one time in his last three home games and only four times in his last seven games played. Their woes got worse when top wide receiver Courtland Sutton suffered a hamstring injury that limited him to one target in their last game. Sutton is questionable for Sunday.

Ultimately, the Chiefs should figure out their fourth-quarter struggles. Mahomes and his offense are too good to struggle for too long. While Denver has an excellent pass defense, Mahomes has the better offense. Against a paltry Broncos offense, the Chiefs don’t need to be explosive offensively to win the game. That’s not too much to ask

The Chiefs have lost back-to-back games only thrice under Mahomes, including only once in the Chiefs’ last 64 games played. Denver has not won on U.S. soil since September 25th. Their current scoring average is the lowest in the NFL in more than two decades.

If the Chiefs win and the Los Angeles Chargers lose on Sunday, Kansas City will clinch the AFC West Division for the seventh consecutive season. I think that KC has more than enough motivation to win this one.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs vs Broncos ATS Prediction

The Chiefs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played against the Broncos. Kansas City is also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in Denver. The road team is also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

Kansas City Chief ATS prediction:

• The Chiefs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
• The Chiefs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 versus the AFC.
• The Chiefs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The Chiefs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
• The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against AFC West.
• The Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Denver Broncos ATS prediction:

• The Broncos are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
• The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 14.
• The Broncos are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
• The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC West.
• The Broncos are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. AFC.
• The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• The Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win.

Given their loss to the Bengals last week, the Chiefs need to bounce back strong in Week 14 to get back on track. Now, what better place to vent out all their frustrations than in Mile High? The Chiefs have the most high-powered offense in the NFL. The Broncos have the worst-scoring offense in the league. Now that’s a clear mismatch on offense right there. Give me the Chiefs to win by double digits.

Prediction: Chiefs -9.5

Chiefs vs Broncos Over/Under 

The under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The over is 3-2 in the last five games played in Denver.

Kansas City Chiefs over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games overall.
• The over is 8-2 in the Chiefs’ last 10 road games.
• The over is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 against the AFC West.
• The under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games on grass.
• The under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 versus the AFC.
• The under is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last 7 against a team with a losing record.

Denver Broncos over/under trends:

• The under is 48-21-1 in the Broncos’ last 70 games overall.
• The under is 5-0 in the Broncos’ last 5 home games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Broncos’ last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The under is 8-0 in the Broncos’ last 8 games following a straight-up loss.
• The under is 10-1 in the Broncos’ last 11 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 5-1 in the Broncos’ last 6 games in December.
• The under is 19-6-1 in the Broncos’ last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The under is 22-7 in the Broncos’ last 29 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
• The under is 23-9-1 in the Broncos’ last 33 against a team with a winning record.
• The under is 5-2 in the Broncos’ last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 40-16-1 in the Broncos’ last 57 versus the AFC.
• The under is 41-18-1 in the Broncos’ last 60 games on grass.
• The under is 18-8-1 in the Broncos’ last 27 games played against the AFC West.

Backing the under in a game involving the Denver Broncos continues to be one of the stronger trends in the NFL this season. The Broncos have gone under in each of their last 8 games played. Denver is the lowest-scoring team in the NFL and they play with one of the league’s top defenses.

When playing the Chiefs, the Broncos like to slow things down with their rushing attack and short-passing game. These have resulted in the under hitting six times in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these two teams.

Kansas City has a high-powered offense but they don’t need all of their offensive prowess to win this game.

Prediction: Under 43