The defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs travel to the Raymond Jones Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV on February 7, 2021.
The Chiefs head to this game having won 25 out of their last 27 games played. Kansas City is the top seed in the playoffs and Patrick Mahomes is looking to become the third player in NFL history to win Super Bowl MVP in back-to-back seasons. Meanwhile, the Bucs are the first team to appear in a Super Bowl that is played at their home field. Tampa Bay last made it to the playoff in 2003 when they won it all. Tom Brady will be starting in a record 10th Super Bowl, and he will be looking to win his 7th Super Bowl ring and his 5th Super Bowl MVP award. The Chiefs defeated the Bucs 27-24 in their only regular season meeting this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs finished the regular season with a 14-2 record. They won their first four games before losing in Week 5 to Las Vegas. Kansas City won 10 straight games before losing to the Chargers in Week 17. The Chiefs defeated the Cleveland Browns 22-17 in the divisional round before routing the Buffalo Bills 38-24 in the AFC title game.
Despite coming off a concussion and playing with a toe injury, QB Patrick Mahomes threw for 325 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Tyreek Hill had nine catches for 172 yards while Darrell Williams had 52 yards and 1 TD on 13 carries. Travis Kelce had 13 catches for 118 yards and two TDs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had an 11-5 season and they were the 5th seed in the NFC. The Bucs also finished their regular season strong with four straight wins. The Bucs defeated the Washington Football Team 31-23 in the Wild Card round then took out the New Orleans Saints 30-20 in the Divisional Round before outlasting the Green Bay Packers 31-26 in the NFC championship game.
Six-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady threw for 280 yards with three touchdowns but also had three interceptions against the Packers. Leonard Fournette rushed for 55 yards and had a touchdown for the Bucs. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin caught five passes for 110 yards. Mike Evans and Scotty Miller combined for 87 yards on five total catches with two TD grabs.
Kansas City is 12-1 SU in their last 13 games played. The Chiefs are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games played away from home. Tampa Bay is 7-0 SU in their last seven games played. The Bucs are just 5-3 SU in eight home games played this season, and 5-2 SU in their last seven games against the AFC. Head to head, the Bucs are 5-1 SU in their last six games played against the Chiefs.
Mahomes played well despite the toe injury and if last week’s effort wasn’t enough to convince you, he will have two weeks of rest before playing in Super Bowl LV. That should be more than enough time to get healed. However, Mahomes and the Chiefs will be up against a Tampa Bay defense that just contained the Saints and Packers on the road.
The Tampa Bay offense has scored at least 30 points in their last six games. But while that’s impressive, it has been their defense that has been the star of the postseason. The Bucs defense sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and hit him eight times despite blitzing less than one-third of the time. Wide receiver Antonio Brown is expected to return after missing the Packers game. Brown caught five TD in four games prior to the injury.
The Buccaneers will play the Super Bowl in the comfort of their home field. That’s something no other team has enjoyed in the NFL’s biggest game. However, with only limited fans allowed, it remains to be seen how much of an advantage that will be, if at all.
It won’t be easy beating Tom Brady in a game where he has played more times than anyone. I think this will be a close game and it could go either way. The short price on the Chiefs who have lost just twice in their last 27 games is tempting. I won’t blame you if you go with the Chiefs. However, there’s plus money on the first team that’s playing the Super Bowl at their home field. And that team is led by the QB who has played the game more than anyone in history.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games played. Kansas City is 3-4-1 ATS in eight road games played this season, and 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games played against the NFC South division. The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played. Tampa Bay 5-3 ATS in eight home games played this season, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the AFC West. Head to head, the Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played against the Chiefs. Tampa Bay is also 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against Kansas City.
The key to this game will be the Tampa Bay defense which is playing at a very high level heading to Super Bowl LV. The Bucs defense ranked 5th in DVOA this season and they just knocked off the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road. Tampa Bay’s disruptive defense has recorded five takeaways and seven sacks so far in the playoffs. In their only meeting during the regular season, the Bucs sacked Mahomes twice and recorded seven QB hits in a three-point loss in Week 12. Kansas City is just 2-4 ATS when Mahomes has been sacked at least twice this season. The Bucs are 5-2 ATS since the loss to the Chiefs. Having said those, I like the idea of a home underdog on the other side of a FG.
Prediction: Buccaneers +3
The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by the Chiefs. Kansas City has seen the total go over in four out of their last five games after an SU win. The over is also 4-0 in their last five games after accumulating 250 passing yards in their previous game. The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by the Buccaneers. The over is 4-0 in their last four games after an ATS win, 4-0 in their last four games on grass, and 9-4 in their last 13 games as underdogs.
The Chiefs attack was on the groove last week, scoring 38 points, their highest output since Week 7 when they put up 43 against Denver. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire healthy and Darrell Williams also producing, this Patrick Mahomes led offense is even more lethal. The Bucs have scored at least 30 points in each of their three playoff games, all of which were played on the road. The KC defense loves to blitz but Tampa Bay has done well against extra rushers. This is the second-highest O/U total in Super Bowl history and is just a point lower than the largest one. However, we have two elite QBs, two offensive-minded coaches, plus a surplus of talented skill players on offense.
Prediction: Over 56
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