Blake Daniels, February 9, 2023

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he Kansas City Chiefs play the Philadelphia Eagles at Super Bowl LVII on Sunday night at the State Farm Stadium in Arizona.

Both teams finished the regular season with identical 14-3 SU records and they were the top seeds in their respective conferences heading to the playoffs. The Chiefs had two tough games in the postseason so far while the Eagles breezed past their first two playoff opponents.

The Chiefs are known for their high-powered offense which is driven by the passing game of QB Patrick Mahomes. The Eagles are a powerhouse running team with QB Jalen Hurts one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL today.

Both Mahomes and Hurts suffered injuries very recently. Mahomes suffered an ankle sprain in the Divisional Round while Hurts was sidelined by a shoulder injury in mid-December.

With plenty of similarities between these two teams, one of the major differences is their head coaches’ experience, which we will discuss.

Super Bowl LVII Coaches’ Betting Trends

Experience has always been a highly debated topic in the Super Bowl. When it comes to the coaches on Sunday, the question is even amplified.

Nick Sirianni is in his second season as NFL head coach and will be making his first Super Bowl appearance this weekend. Meanwhile, the veteran Reid will be making his fourth trip to the Big Game on Sunday.

However, when it comes to the Super Bowl, coaches who have 1+ more Super Bowl appearances than the opposing head coach are just 18-17 SU overall. When the experience gap is increased to +2, the record is even worse at 10-14 SU.

We’re not saying that Sirianni will beat Reid on Sunday. However, the difference in coaching experience may not matter in Super Bowl LVII. Instead, let’s take a look at some interesting SU and ATS trends for both coaches:

Here are some Nick Sirianni ATS and SU trends:

• Sirianni is 16-17-1 ATS (48.5%) and 23-11 SU (67.6%) as a head coach in regular-season games
• Sirianni is 2-1 ATS (66.7%) and 2-1 SU (66.7%) as a head coach in playoff games
• Sirianni is 13-10-1 ATS (56.5%) and 21-3 SU (87.5%) as a head coach as a favorite (regular season and playoffs)
• Sirianni is 4-0 ATS and 4-0 SU as a head coach when the spread is pick ’em, and a one- to three-point favorite
• Sirianni is 0-1 ATS and 0-1 SU as a head coach vs. the Chiefs in his career losing in a Week 4 matchup in the 2021 season

These are a few of Andy Reid’s ATS and SU trends:

• Reid is 28-23-4 ATS (54.9%) and 25-30 SU (45.5%) as a head coach as a one- to three-point underdog (regular season and playoffs)
• Reid is 20-16-1 ATS (55.6%) and 21-16 SU (56.8%) as a head coach in all playoff games in his career (Chiefs and Eagles)
• Reid is 9-8-1 ATS (52.9%) and 11-7 SU (61.1%) as the Chiefs’ head coach in the playoffs
• Reid is 6-3-1 ATS (66.7%) and 3-7 SU (30%) as a head coach when an underdog in the playoffs (Chiefs and Eagles)
• Reid is 0-1-1 ATS and 0-2 SU as the Chiefs head coach when an underdog in the playoffs
• Reid is 2-1 ATS (66.7%) and 1-2 SU (33.3%) as a head coach in the Super Bowl (Chiefs and Eagles)
• Reid is 3-0 ATS and 3-0 SU as a head coach vs. the Eagles in his career

Now back to our regular programming – the teams’ betting trends and predictions. Read on.

Chiefs vs Eagles SU Prediction

The Chiefs are 4-3 SU in their last 7 games played against the Eagles. However, Kansas City has won its last three head-to-head meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs SU trends:

• The Chiefs are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games played.
• The Chiefs are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played on the road.
• The Chiefs are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games played against the NFC East Division.
• The Chiefs are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played against the NFC.

Philadelphia Eagles SU trends:

• The Eagles are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games played.
• The Eagles are 5-1 SU in their last six games as the home team.
• The Eagles are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games played against the AFC.
• The Eagles are 8-2 SU in their last 10 Sunday games as the home team.

The Chiefs are riding high on a seven-game winning streak heading to Sunday. If that was any other team, they would have not liked taking the long layoff heading to the Super Bowl. But for the Chiefs, the long layoff means more time for Patrick Mahomes to recover from the sprained ankle he played with during their hard-earned 23-20 win over the Bengals.

Kansas City also played without its top three receivers in Kadarius Toney, Juju Schuster-Smith, and Mecole Herman while Travis Kelce played with back spasms. The Chiefs’ secondary is also dealing with injuries as they played with three rookie cornerbacks and a first-year safety against the Bengals.

Aside from the time to heal up, head coach Andy Reid is also the master when coming off a bye week. Reid is 27-4 SU in his last 31 games after a bye week and 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 such games.

The Eagles proved that their 14-3 SU regular season was no fluke after defeating the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers by an aggregate score of 69-14. Linebacker Haason Redick was a force against the 49ers with one forced fumble, and one fumble recovery, while also recording two sacks.

Despite Philly’s dominating playoff performance so far, quarterback Jalen Hurts has not put up a big passing game since suffering a shoulder injury in December. Hurts threw for only 154 yards against the Giants and had only 121 passing yards versus the 49ers. Although the team hasn’t needed it yet, they might need it against an improving Chiefs defense.

Mahomes’ ankle health will be the key to victory. His mobility in the pocket will be huge against the Philadelphia pass rush that led the league in sacks during the regular season. Kansas City must also run the ball better and their 42 yards on 20 carries against the Bengals won’t work here.

The Eagles are 16-3 SU overall this season. They are even impressive at 16-1 SU with Jalen Hurts at the helm. With the Eagles holding big leads in both playoff games, Hurts has not needed to pass the ball as Mahomes has for the Chiefs. If Hurts is forced to pass, he might find success if the KC secondary is still hurting.

Philly’s ability to run the football has given them an average of 10 minutes more of possession time in their last 3 games played. That may be how they can stop a healthy Mahomes from throwing the entire arsenal at them.

The Chiefs have the run defense to match the Philadelphia rushing attack. They will force the Eagles to beat them with the passing attack, an aspect of their game that has not looked that good in the postseason, at least so far.

Given their experience, the rest, Andy Reid’s ability to prepare during the bye week, and a rush defense that can stop the Eagles’ run, I’m going with the Chiefs to win Super Bowl LVII.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs vs Eagles ATS Prediction

Kansas City Chiefs ATS trends:

• The Chiefs are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• The Chiefs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight-up win.
• The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game
• The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS against a team with a winning record
• The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.

Philadelphia 76ers’ ATS trends:

• The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.
• The Eagles are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• The Eagles are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win.\
• The Eagles are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

The Chiefs have faced adversity in the postseason and have been able to show they can play their game even while under pressure. The Eagles have had an easy run to the Super Bowl, dominating the Giants and 49ers. But with the Chiefs possessing the run defense to limit the Philadelphia rushing attack, this game could go down to the aerial battle between Mahomes and Hurts.

Make no mistake I love Jalen Hurts and to me, he should be the MVP this season. However, if Mahomes recovered from the ankle injury he suffered against the Jaguars, this one should be for the Chiefs to win. Mahomes is also 7-1-1 ATS in 9 career games as a betting underdog.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5

Chiefs vs Eagles Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played between these two teams.

Kansas City Chiefs over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games overall.
• The under is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 against a team with a winning record.
• The under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games on grass.
• The over is 7-2 in the Chiefs’ last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The over is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 6-1 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Philadelphia Eagles over/under trends:

• The under is 4-0 in the Eagles’ last 4 games overall
• The under is 5-0 in the Eagles’ last 5 games on grass.
• The under is 16-5-1 in the Eagles’ last 22 playoff games.
• The over is 8-3 in the Eagles’ last 11 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 5-2 in the Eagles’ last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 7-3 in the Eagles’ last 10 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 60-27 in the Eagles’ last 87 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

The total has gone under in four out of Kansas City’s last five games played. They have not gotten over the 51-point total mark in each of their last five games played. Meanwhile, the Eagles have allowed 30 total points in their last 3 games played. The total has gone over 51 points only once in the Eagles’ last six games played.

The under is 11-8 in the last 19 Super Bowls. The over has gotten public support 15 times during that stretch but the under went 6-9 in those 15 instances. Given that the Eagles will try to run the football as much as they can, I think this one goes under.

Prediction: Under 51