Blake Daniels, January 27, 2023

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The Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Paycom Center on Friday night.

Cleveland defeated the Houston Rocket 113-95 on Thursday night to go 1-1 on their current road trip. The Cavs lost 105-103 to the Knicks at Madison Square Garden last Tuesday. They are 30-20 SU on the season and are 2 games behind the Milwaukee Bucks in the Central Division. The Cavs are 5th in the East team standings, 5 games behind the Boston Celtics.

Oklahoma City lost to the Atlanta Hawks 137-132 on Wednesday night. The Thunder are 23-25 SU on the season and although they are next to last in the Northwest Division, they are only one-half game behind the 10th-seeded Utah Jazz and a spot in the play-in tournament. The Thunder head to this contest having won seven out of their last 10 games played.

The Cavs beat the Thunder 110-102 in their first meeting of the season last November 12th.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs bounced back from a two-point loss to the New York Knicks last Tuesday with a 113-95 win over the Houston Rockets on Thursday night.

Darius Garland led the Cavs with 26 points and 9 assists while shooting 5-8 from the three-point distance. Evan Mobley had a double-double with 21 points and 10 boards while Jarrett Allen had 14 points,10 rebounds, and 3 steals.

Cleveland played without superstar guard Donovan Mitchell who sat out for the 4th time in five games. Mitchell played last Tuesday but he aggravated his groin injury and was held out of Thursday’s game. Mitchell was named as a starter for the Eastern Conference during next month’s NBA All-Star Game.

The Cavaliers are scoring 111.5 points per game this season. They are also grabbing 2.4 boards per contest and are issuing 24.0 dimes per contest.

OKC Thunder

The Thunder are coming off a loss to the Atlanta Hawks in their most recent game. Oklahoma City has however won four out of their last six games, including a 101-99 upset of the Denver Nuggets last Sunday.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 36 points with 5 rebounds and 7 assists in the loss to Atlanta. Jalen Williams added 24 points while Josh Giddey had 16 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 steals in an all-around effort.

OKC scored 132 points against Atlanta but they were unable to stop the Hawks from scoring 137 points and shooting 59.5% from the field. Despite their poor defensive effort, the Thunder were down just one at 133-132 with 15.3 seconds left. They fouled John Collins on the other end and he made two free throws and SGA’s shot ended up getting blocked.

The Thunder are averaging 116.9 points per game this season. They are pulling down 44.1 rebounds per game while also issuing 24.6 assists per outing.

Cavaliers vs Thunder SU Prediction

The Cavaliers are 4-0 SU in their last 4 games played against the Thunder. Cleveland is also 2-1 SU in their last 3 games played against Oklahoma City.

Cleveland Cavaliers SU trends:

• The Cavaliers are 2-3 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Cavaliers are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games played on the road.
• The Cavaliers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 Friday games.
• The Cavaliers are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games played as betting favorites.
• The Cavaliers are 5-8 SU in their last 13 road games against the Western Conference.

OKC Thunder SU trends:

• The Thunder are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played.
• The Thunder are 14-10 SU in 24 home games played this season.
• The Thunder are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games played against the Central Division.
• The Thunder are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games played in January.
• The Thunder are 6-5 SU in their last 11 home games played against the Eastern Conference.

The Cavaliers beat the Rockets last Thursday but played without Donovan Mitchell who sat out after aggravating his groin injury during Tuesday’s loss to the Knicks. Mitchell has missed four out of the Cavs’ last five games due to the injury and may be unable to suit up here.

Without Mitchell, Darius Garland showed out with 26 points. Garland is averaging 21.7 points per game this season while also issuing 8 assists per game. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen also posted double-doubles for the Cavs and if these two big men can replicate the same effort against an OKC team that is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league this season, they should be in good shape.

The Thunder will look to take advantage of Mitchell’s absence. They have scorers like SGA, Jalen Williams, and Josh Giddey who can put up big numbers However, OKC will be facing the Cavs who are no. 1 in the NBA in scoring defense at 107.2 points per game this season.

Without Mitchell, the Cavs will look for their defense to pull off this victory. If the Cavaliers can contain SGA, that’s likely winning half the battle. The Thunder have been an overachieving team this season but I think that the Cavs, even without Mitchell, are good enough to win this game on the road. The odds are close but I like the Cavs to pull off the win here.

Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavaliers vs Thunder ATS Prediction

The Cavaliers are 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Thunder. Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in Oklahoma City.

Cleveland Cavaliers ATS trends:

• The Cavaliers are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 road games.
• The Cavaliers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The Cavaliers are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up win.
• The Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win.
• The Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
• The Cavaliers are 6-7 ATS in their last 13 road games against the Western Conference.

OKC Thunder ATS trends:

• The Thunder are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Thunder are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Thunder are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Thunder are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The Thunder are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Thunder are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• The Thunder are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Thunder are just 2 games below the .500 mark and they are a fun team to watch with the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams. However, the Thunder are in the bottom 10 in scoring defense. They gave up 138 against the Hawks the last time out and 118 two games ago against the Kings.

The Cavaliers are just 2-3 SU in their last five games played. But the losses have come by an aggregate margin of only 9 points. Overall this season, the Cavs are 30-20 SU and have been a much better team than the Thunder.

Cleveland rank in the Top 10 in most rebounding categories while Oklahoma City is just 27th in rebounding percentage. Opponents are also shooting 36.6% from deep when playing at the Paycom Center.

Prediction: Cavaliers -1.5

Cavaliers vs Thunder Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played between these two teams. The over is 4-2 in their last 6 meetings in Oklahoma City.

Cleveland Cavaliers over/under trends:

• The under is 5-0 in the Cavaliers last 5 games playing on 0 days’ rest.
• The under is 7-2 in the Cavaliers’ last 9 vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The under is 5-2 in the Cavaliers’ last 7 overall.
• The under is 5-2 in the Cavaliers’ last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2 in the Cavaliers’ last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2 in the Cavaliers’ last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 7-3 in the Cavaliers’ last 10 games following an ATS win.
• The over is 7-3 in the Cavaliers’ last 10 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 4-0 in the Cavaliers’ last 4 Friday games.
• The over is 4-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 5 games against the Northwest Division.

OKC Thunder over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Thunder’s last 5 overall.
• The over is 4-1 in the Thunder’s last 5 home games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Thunder’s last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Thunder’s last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game
• The over is 7-1 in the Thunder’s last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The over is 11-3 in the Thunder’s last 14 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The over is 6-2 in the Thunder’s last 8 Friday games.
• The over is 19-7-1 in the Thunder’s last 27 home games versus a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The over is 5-2 in the Thunder’s last 7 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The over is 7-3 in the Thunder’s last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 9-4 in the Thunder’s last 13 games following an ATS loss.

The Cavs put up 113 points against the Knicks on Thursday and are playing on back-to-back nights. Donovan Mitchell suffered cramps in that game and the Cleveland coaching staff might take it easy on him against a beatable foe like the Thunder.

Cleveland is the NBA leader in rebounding and is allowing the fewest points per game this season. This is a team that can win with defense and given that they are playing on consecutive nights, they have the luxury of letting their defense win this game for them while giving their stars Mitchell and Garland more rest than usual.

Given Cleveland’s defensive prowess, I like the under here.

Prediction: Under 222.5