The Indianapolis Colts visit the Denver Broncos at the Empower Field at Mile High to open Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season.
Indianapolis is 1-2-1 SU on the season and they are in third place in the AFC South. The Colts finished in a tie with the Texans in Week 1, lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars the following week, and then upset the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3. They were, however, taken back down to earth by the Tennessee Titans who beat them 24-17 last weekend.
Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos are 2-2 U on the year and 2nd place in the AFC West Division team standings. The Broncos were upset by the Seattle Seahawks on opening week, but then picked up back-to-back victories against the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers before losing to the Las Vegas Raiders 32-23 the last time out.
The Colts have beaten the Broncos seven times in their last 10 games played but Denver has won two out of the last three meetings between these two teams.
The Colts have struggled with their rushing game as they are just 27th overall in rushing at 87.8 rushing yards per game. Indianapolis had just 38 rushing yards on 23 carries during their 24-17 loss to the Tennessee Titans last weekend. At 14.3 points per game scored this year, the Colts rank dead-last in the entire NFL when it comes to scoring.
Mat Ryan threw for 356 yards in a losing effort. Ryan has thrown for 1,125 yards this season and has only 5 TD passes. The Colts rank 10th overall in passing offense at 252.0 yards per game this season. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor has 328 rushing yards on 81 carries with one rushing TD this season and Michael Pittman leads the team with 224 receiving yards on 20 catches with one TD grab.
The Broncos saw their two-game winning streak end last week with a 32-23 defeat to the then-winless Las Vegas Raiders. Denver upgraded its offense during the offseason by adding QB Russell Wilson in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks. However, the offense has sputtered so far, ranking 29th in scoring at only 16.5 points per game this season. Their defense however has been excellent as the Broncos rank 5th in scoring defense at just 17.0 points per game allowed.
Wilson threw for 237 yards with two TDs while also leading the Broncos with 29 rushing yards. Wilson has a total of 980 passing yards this season with 4 TD passes. Meanwhile, Javonte Williams leads Denver with 204 rushing yards on 47 carries but he is out with a knee injury. Courtland Sutton has caught 24 passes for 24 receiving yards with one TD catch. Sutton had five catches for 52 yards last weekend.
The Colts are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played in Denver. Indianapolis is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played in Denver.
Indianapolis Colts SU trends:
Denver Broncos SU trends:
The Colts lost at home to the Tennessee Titans last weekend. Indianapolis fell behind 14-0 early on and spent the rest of the game trying to catch up with Tennessee. The Colts got to within one possession midway through the final quarter but they committed three turnovers that ended their chance of making a comeback.
If Indianapolis wants to pick up its first road win of the season, they need to protect the ball better. The Colts rank third from the bottom in the league when it comes to the turnover differential at -6 turnovers after four weeks. Facing a Broncos team that has not played well offensively but has displayed tremendous defense, Indianapolis cannot afford to give the ball away on Thursday.
Denver’s two-game winning streak was snapped by the Las Vegas Raider last weekend. The Broncos trailed by just three points heading to the second half but they could not get their offense going and were unable to chase down the Raiders. This week, Denver will have to overcome injury issues, especially from the running back position to win this game.
Javonte Williams suffered a knee injury that looks to affect the Broncos’ offense. That means that there will be more pressure on a struggling Russell Wilson to deliver. Russ has moved the ball decently with 980 passing yards but he only has 4 TDs versus 1 INT this season. Wilson is also dealing with a shoulder issue although that is considered minor.
Both these teams have struggled offensively this season but it’s clear that Denver has the more explosive weapons. The Broncos are averaging around half a yard more per play than the Colts this season and that means they will be the team that can move the ball better. Plug in Denver’s impeccable defense and I’m taking the home team here.
Prediction: Denver Broncos
The Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played against the Broncos. Indianapolis is also 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in Denver. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
Indianapolis Colts ATS predictions:
Denver Broncos ATS trends:
The Colts are just 1-3 ATS in four games played this season and 0-2 ATS in two home games played this year. Indianapolis has been outscored by an average of more than 10 points per game in their last three games played.
The Broncos’ defense has been solid this season. At home, they have even been more impressive at just 9.5 points per game allowed in two games here in Denver. They should find even more success against this Indianapolis offense which has not lived up to its expectations. I think Denver’s defense will be the key here.
Prediction Broncos -3.5
The total has gone over in 10 out of the last 14 meetings between these two teams. The over is also 5-2-1 in the last 10 games played between these two teams in Denver.
Indianapolis Colts over/under trends:
Denver Broncos over/under trends:
These teams are two of the low-scoring teams after four weeks of action. Indianapolis is last in the league in scoring at 14.3 points per game while the Broncos are just a little better at 29th with their 16.5 points per game scored this season.
The Broncos are allowing just 17.3 points per game this season while the Colts are conceding only 21.3 points per game this year. With two teams that have not scored well on offense and have played excellent defense to start the year, this should be a low-scoring ball game.
Prediction: Under 43.5
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