A crucial AFC North contest will be the feature of NFL’s Thursday Night Football as the Indianapolis Colts visit the Tennessee Titans at the Nissan Stadium on November 12, 2020.
The Colts head to this game after suffering a 24-10 home loss to the Baltimore Ravens. That defeat dropped them to 5-3 on the season and one game behind the Titans in the team standings. Tennessee defeated the Chicago Bears 24-17 in their last outing. The win improved their record to 6-2 on the year and tops in the AFC North. However, the Colts can tie the Titans on top of the division with a road win here. Indianapolis has won seven out of the last eight games between these two teams in Tennessee.
The Colts offense turned sour last weekend against the Baltimore Ravens. They scored only 10 points while their defense allowed Baltimore to score 24 on them. Philip Rivers completed just 25 of 43 passes for 227 yards. While he didn’t turn the ball over, Rivers also didn’t have a passing touchdown. He has thrown 10 scores with 7 picks this season.
Rivers has played well against the Titans. He’s 7-2 against Tennessee and has thrown for 2,410 yards with 17 touchdowns and only four interceptions against them. Aside from his track record, the Titans defense is also allowing 275.0 passing yards per game, 27th in the league this season.
Defense has been the key for the Colts this season. They rank 1st in the league in total yards allowed and are third overall in defending the pass, run, and points allowed. Despite losing to Baltimore, Indianapolis held them to only 266 yards of total offense including just 110 on the ground, which is Baltimore’s favorite weapon.
The Titans picked up a nice 24-17 home win over the Chicago Bears the last time out. Tennessee improved to 4-1 SU at the Nissan Stadium this season but against Chicago, they were outplayed 375-288 in total yards. Tennessee currently has a one-game lead in the division and look to increase it against the team directly behind them in the standings.
Ryan Tannehill threw for only 158 yards last week but had two touchdowns and no interception. He will have to throw well this week against a very good rush defense. The Titans rank 6th on the ground and Derrick Henry has been the reason why. He ranks second in the league with a total of 843 yards on the year but is coming off a 68-yard effort last week.
The Tennessee defense ranks just 25th in total yards allowed and 27th against the pass this season. They are also just 16th in scoring defense and 17th against the pass. The Titans hope to get Jadeveon Clowney back in this game as he is still listed as questionable as of now.
Indianapolis is 5-2 SU in their last seven games played. The Colts are 2-2 SU in four road games played this season, and 2-4 SU in their last six games played in November. Tennessee is 9-3 SU in their last 12 games played. The Titans are 4-1 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Colts are 7-3 SU in their last 10 meetings against the Titans. Indianapolis is also 7-1 SU in their last eight road games against Tennessee.
Indianapolis’ wins this season have come against Jets, Vikings, Lions, Bengals, and Bears. The Colts have a top-ranked defense that is allowing just 20.0 points per game this season but that defense has conceded 21 or more points per game in their last four outings. Veteran receiver Ty Hilton missed their last game with a groin injury but was a full participant in Monday’s practice and could return to this game. Hilton will be much needed as the Colts have a tough three weeks ahead.
After putting up 30 or more points in four consecutive weeks, the Titans have not scored more than 24 points in each of their last three games. Tennessee gained only a total of 228 total yards but still won 24-17 against the Bears. Derrick Henry has struggled in the last three weeks, averaging just 85 rushing yards per game and just 4 yards per carry during that period. He will be facing the third-best run defense against Indianapolis so that could be a problem.
The Colts are coming off a terrible home loss to the Ravens but despite that, their defense performed well in that game. Although their defense hasn’t been as good as it was at the start of the season, Indianapolis should be able to put the clamps on a Tennessee team that only had 228 total yards last week. Philip Rivers is 7-2 in his career against the Titans with 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions. The Colts have won the last two at Nissan Stadium. I expect them to win a third behind their defense. I’ll take the plus money here.
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are 4-4 ATS in eight games played this season and they are 2-2 ATS in four road games played this year. Indianapolis is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played against the AFC. The Titans are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games played. Tennessee is 3-2 ATS in five home games played this season, 2-5 ATS in their last seven Thursday games, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as the betting favorite. Head to head, the Colts are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games played against the Titans.
The Colts have bounced back after a poor home outing during Frank Reich’s tenure. Indianapolis is 5-0-1 ATS in six such games. They are also 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at Tennessee. Meanwhile, The Titans are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played as the betting favorite. Both these offenses have struggled as of late so I will have to go with the team that plays better defense.
Prediction: Colts +1
The total has gone over in five out of the last eight games of the Colts against the AFC South Division. The over is 3-1 in their last four games played on the road. The total has gone over in five out of the last seven games played by the Titans. The over is 4-1 in their last five games against the AFC, and also 5-1 in their last six games against the AFC South. Head to head, the total has gone over in six out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
The Titans don’t play good enough defense and their offense has been decent. However, they are a running team which chews up the clock. Also, the Colts have one of the best rushing defense in the league so it’s not going to be easy scoring points for them here. The Colts will force Tannehill to throw on third and long situations and with the 11th best sack average in the league, they should be able to get the job done on defense. The Colts ran 11th in the NFL in time of possession. With Indianapolis’ ball-control style, I like this game to hit the under despite the trends.
Prediction: Under 48.5
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