Blake Daniels, August 16, 2022

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers will play Game 2 of their current set on Tuesday night at the American Family Field.

Julio Urias helped the Dodgers blank the Brewers 4-0 in Game 1 of the series last Sunday. With the win, the Dodgers returned to the winning column after the Kansas City Royals snapped their 12-game winning streak. Los Angeles has the best record in the majors and leads the New York Mets by six games in the race for the best record in baseball.

Meanwhile, the Brewers have surrendered the lead in the NL Central to the St. Louis Cardinals after losing six out of their last 10 games played. Milwaukee is currently two games behind the San Diego Padres in the NL Wild Card race. However, they are also only just two games behind the NL Central Division team standings so they are still very much alive in the playoff race.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers will continue their seven-game road trip with Game 2 against the Brewers. Los Angeles saw its 12-game winning run snapped by the Kansas City Royals two games ago. They bounced back nicely behind Julio Urias and shut out the Brewers 4-0 on Sunday. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball and are the odds-on favorite to win the 2022 World Series.

Rookie Ryan Pepoit will open for the Dodgers in Game 2. Pepoit is 1-0 with an ERA of 3.92 and a WHIP of 1.45 while conceding 9 runs in 20.2 innings pitched. The right-hander had some trouble in his last outing, giving up four runs in 4.1 innings against the Twins. Los Angeles lost that game but he did not factor in the decision.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have struggled as of late and they have surrendered the lead in the NL Central to the St. Louis Cardinals. Milwaukee has ceded their division lead to the Cardinals but that lead is just two games so they can still catch up, especially since they still have seven more games against their rivals.

Brandon Woodruff will make his 18th start of the season for the Brewers. The veteran right-hander is 9-3 with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.15 in 92.2 innings pitched this season. Woodruff pitched well in his last outing, conceding only three runs in seven innings pitched versus the Rays, in a game which Milwaukee won.

Dodgers vs Brewers Betting Prediction

The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last five games played against the Brewers. Los Angeles is also 6-4 in their last 10 road games against Milwaukee.

The Dodgers are:

• 41-10 in their last 51 games played overall.
• 39-17 in their last 56 road games.
• 81-36 in their last 117 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 44-21 in their last 65 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 35-17 in their last 52 road games versus a right-handed starter.
• 41-10 in their last 51 games on grass.
• 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning record.
• 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 4-1 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 48-13 in their last 61 Game 2s of a series.
• 49-14 in their last 63 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 39-12 in their last 51 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 39-12 in their last 51 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 45-14 in their last 59 games following a win.
• 44-14 in their last 58 games versus a right-handed starter.
• 47-16 in their last 63 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 38-13 in their last 51 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• 50-18 in their last 68 Tuesday games.
• 38-14 in their last 52 versus theNational League Central.
• 57-23 in their last 80 games against a team with a winning record.
• 8-0 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Brewers are:

• 4-9 in their last 13 overall.
• 8-3 in their last 11 home games.
• 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• 5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 5-1 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 6-2 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 5-2 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.
• 7-15 in their last 22 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 4-9 in their last 13 games on grass.
• 2-6 in their last 8 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• 1-7 in their last 8 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

Of the three games in this series, this one is where the Brewers have a good shot at beating the Dodgers. Starting for L.A. will be rookie Ryan Pepoit who gave up four runs in 4.1 innings pitched in his last start. But Pepoit isn’t anything special and has a 3.92 ERA. However, he has pitched well on the road, with an ERA of 1.23. The Dodgers are 4-0 in his last four starts with the offense providing him with at least five runs scored in those games.

Woodruff has been elite when pitching at home and the Dodgers have seen him only once in the last two years which is to his advantage. There is no question that the Brewers have the better starting pitcher on Tuesday night. However, the Seattle offense has scored only seven runs in their last four games played.

The Mariners are ranked only 23rd in scoring at 4.03 runs per game while the Dodgers are the top scoring team in the majors at 5.40 runs per game. Los Angeles scored at least 7 runs nine times during their recent 12-game winning streak. I think that the Dodgers’ offense will make up for the Mariners’ edge in pitching.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers vs Brewers Over/Under Trends

The total has gone over in five out of the last six meetings between these two teams. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee.

Los Angeles Dodgers over/under trends:

• Over is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 overall.
• Over is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games following a win.
• Over is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 on grass.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 6 against a team with a winning record.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 19-7 in the Dodgers’ last 26 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 7-3-1 in the Dodgers’ last 11 games versus National League Central.
• Over is 3-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 4 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 3-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 4 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 4-0 in the Dodgers’ last 4 Tuesday games.
• Over is 4-0 in the Dodgers’ last 4 Games 2s of a series.
• Over is 9-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Under is 7-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 road games versus a team with a winning record.
• Under is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 road games against a right-handed starter.
• Under is 18-6-2 in the Dodgers’ last 26 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 18-6-2 in the Dodgers’ last 26 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 35-17-4 in the Dodgers’ last 56 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Milwaukee Brewers over/under trends:

• Under is 4-1-2 in the Brewers’ last 7 overall.
• Under is 2-0-2 in the Brewers’ last 4 home games.
• Under is 4-0-1 in the Brewers’ last 5 games following a loss.
• Under is 2-0-2 in the Brewers’ last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 4-1-2 in the Brewers’ last 7 on grass.
• Under is 4-1-2 in the Brewers’ last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 3-1-1 in the Brewers’ last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 5-2-3 in the Brewers’ last 10 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 11-5 in the Brewers’ last 16 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 5-2-1 in the Brewers’ last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 3-1-2 in the Brewers’ last 6 Tuesday games.
• Over is 15-5-1 in the Brewers’ last 21 Game2s of a series.
• Over is 4-1 in the Brewers’ last 5 games against the National League West.
• Over is 5-1-1 in the Brewers’ last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

I expect the Dodgers’ offense to carry them to victory here but I don’t expect them to score tons of runs against Woodruff, who has conceded two or fewer runs in four out of his last five starts and has been pitching deep into games.

On the other hand, the Brewers’ offense hasn’t been in synch as of late and hasn’t been elite all season. Milwaukee is a team that relies on pitching to win its games. With Pepoit pitching better on the road than at home, this should not turn into a high-scoring game.

Prediction: Under 8