Blake Daniels, September 27, 2022

0 COMMENTS

The Miami Dolphins look to keep their unbeaten slate when they travel to the Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals.

Miami is one of the two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL with a 3-0 record and is the only team to win and cover its first three games of the 2022 season. The Dolphins are coming off their biggest win so far, a 21-19 upset of the Super Bowl LVII betting favorites Buffalo Bills last weekend.

Cincinnati finally got on board last weekend. After getting upset by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys in their first two games of the season, the Bengals picked up a 27-12 win over the New York Jets. Cincinnati hopes to keep the momentum going as they try to bring Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins back to earth on Thursday Night Football.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are off to a strong start. Miami and Philadelphia are the only two unbeaten teams in the NFL after Monday’s game. They opened the season with a 20-7 win over the New England Patriots and then pulled off a stunning 21-point comeback to beat the Baltimore Ravens the following week. Miami then defeated the Super Bowl betting favorites Buffalo Bills last weekend to emerge as the early division leader.

Tua Tagovailoa has risen in the MVP betting boards as he is off to a great start. Tua has converted 71.3% of his passes for 925 yards with 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert are each averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Meanwhile, wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have caught a combined 650 yards after three games played

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals entered the 2022 season with high expectations after making it all the way to Super Bowl LVI last season. However, Cincinnati’s season has not started out as planned. In Week 1, they were upset by the Pittsburgh Steelers in an overtime contest. The following week, the Bengals suffered another upset loss to the Dallas Cowboys who were quarterbacked by Cooper Rush. The last time out, the Bengals picked up a 27-12 win over the New York Jets with Joe Burrow throwing 275 yards.

Burrow has completed 64.0% of his passes for 812 yards with six passing touchdowns and four interceptions. His offensive line has been terrible with 15 sacks conceded. The Bengals’ rushing attack hasn’t been able to get going either, averaging just 2.8 yards per carry on 58 carries. Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has caught 21 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns while Tee Higgins has 13 catches for 191 receiving yards.

Who Wins?

The Dolphins are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games played against the Bengals. However, Cincinnati has won two out of their last three home games against Miami.

Miami Dolphins SU trends:

• Dolphins are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games played.
• Dolphins are 3-5 SU in their last 8 road games.
• Dolphins are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games against the AFC.
• Dolphins are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the AFC North Division.

Cincinnati Bengals SU trends:

• Bengals are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played.
• Bengals are 4-1 SU in their last five games played at home.
• Bengals are 6-1 SU in their last 7 Week 4 games.
• Bengals are 4-2 SU In their last 6 Thursday games.

The Dolphins have been airing the ball out through three weeks with Jaylen Waddle accounting for 19 catches on 30 targets for 342 receiving yards while averaging 18 yards per catch with three TD grabs. Last Sunday, he went without a TD catch but finished with 102 receiving yards on four catches in six targets. However, Waddle is dealing with a groin injury and that could be bad on a short week.

Miami’s defense has allowed just 21.3 points per game on 426 yards of total offense. They allowed the Bills to pick up 382 passing yards and 115 rushing yards while also letting Buffalo covert 11-18 third down attempts and 2-3 on fourth-down tries. The defense will need to step up as they will try to stop Joe Burrow.

Ja’Marr Chase is off to a slow start as he has caught 21 passes on 35 targets for 212 receiving yards on 10.1 yards per catch with two TD grabs. Last weekend, Chase had another quiet night with six catches on 10 targets for 29 receiving yards with one TD catch and a lost fumble. If the Bengals want to win, Chase has got to step it up.

The Bengals have allowed just 18.3 points per game this season on 324 total yards per game conceded. The last time out, they allowed only 328 yards to the Jets, 252 through the air, and 76 on the ground. Cincinnati’s defense forced four turnovers, including two fumble recoveries. If that defense shows up on Thursday, the Bengals should be in good shape here.

I think this is going to be a competitive game between two very good young teams. However, the Dolphins are dealing with a litany of injuries and that could be the difference in this game. Cincinnati’s defense has also looked good so far this season, they should be able to compliment Joe Burrow and the offense.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals

Dolphins vs Bengals ATS Prediction

The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games played between these two teams. The home team is also 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.

Miami Dolphins ATS trends:

• Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Dolphins are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
• Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.
• Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
• Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up win.
• Dolphins are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win.
• Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Dolphins are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Dolphins are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 4.

Cincinnati Bengals ATS trends:

• Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Bengals are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
• Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
• Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win.
• Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4.
• Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf.
• Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Give the Dolphins their props for opening the season with a 3-0 mark. However, they barely got past the Steelers and pulled off a once-in-a-lifetime comeback against the Ravens in their first two games. Sure, they beat the Buffalo Bills the last time out, but that victory was more of Buffalo’s inability to execute rather than how good the Dolphins played.

The Dolphins are also dealing with injuries to Tagovailoa and Waddle, and even if the two play on Thursday, both may not be 100%. With both Tua and Waddle compromised, I expect the Miami offense to struggle as well.

The Bengals are coming off their first win of the season and they would want to keep the momentum going. Miami does not have the defensive front to take advantage of Cincinnati’s poor offensive line. With Joe Burrow getting good looks here, I expect the Bengals to win the game and cover the betting spread.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5

Dolphins vs Bengals Over/Under Predictions

The under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams. The total has gone under in each of their last five meetings in Cincinnati.

Miami Dolphins over/under trends:

• Under is 9-4 in the Dolphins’ last 13 games overall.
• Under is 5-1 in the Dolphins’ last 6 road games.
• Under is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• Under is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last 5 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
• Under is 9-3 in the Dolphins’ last 12 games in September.
• Under is 8-3 in the Dolphins’ last 11 games against the AFC.
• Under is 9-4 in the Dolphins’ last 13 games versus a team with a losing record.
• Under is 37-17 in the Dolphins’ last 54 games on field turf.
• Under is 6-1 in the Dolphins’ last 7 games in Week 4.
• Under is 10-2-1 in the Dolphins’ last 13 Thursday games.
• Over is 5-1 in the Dolphins’ last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Cincinnati Bengals over/under trends:

• Under is 8-0 in the Bengals’ last 8 games overall.
• Under is 6-0 in the Bengals’ last 6 games following an ATS win.
• Under is 5-0 in the Bengals’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• Under is 6-0 in the Bengals’ last 6 games in September.
• Under is 5-0 in the Bengals’ last 5 games on field turf.
• Under is 6-0 in the Bengals’ last 6 games versus the AFC.
• Under is 4-0 in the Bengals’ last 4 games against a team with a winning record.
• Under is 6-1 in the Bengals’ last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in the Bengals’ last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Under is 13-3 in the Bengals’ last 16 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2-1 in the Bengals’ last 8 Thursday games.
• Over is 4-0 in the Bengals’ last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Over is 6-0 in the Bengals’ last 6 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.

These two defenses haven’t been forcing many turnovers to start the year. Miami’s defense has forced just four turnovers after three games, as has the Cincinnati defense. Both punters have also been excellent with the Bengals averaging 41.1 yards per punt and the Dolphins at 9.5 yards per punt. The Bengals’ defense has allowed only two TDs so far this season while the Dolphins have surrendered just 6 TDs this year.

Let’s also factor in the news that Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle have minor injuries and even if the two suit up in this game, both may not be 100%. Because of the injuries on their side, I expect some regression in the Dolphins’ scoring production.

These two teams have combined to score an average of just 41.9 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings and only 47.67 points per game in their last three encounters. I don’t think this game is going to be any different. Give me these teams to go under the total.

Prediction: Under 47.5