The Miami Dolphins will travel to Jacksonville on Thursday, looking for their first victory of the season.
The 0-2 Dolphins lost their first road game of the season to the New England Patriots 21-11 in Week 1 and they were 2-6 SU on the road last season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have split their last two games but have covered the spread in both games. Gardner Minshew threw for 173 yards on 19-20 passing in their first home game of the season. Jacksonville was 3-4 SU at home last season.
Miami is coming off a 31-28 loss as 2.5 underdogs to the Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, Jacksonville heads home after a 33-30 loss to the Tennessee Titans as seven-point underdogs The Jaguars won the last meeting between these two teams 17-7 on December 23, 2018, in Miami.
Brian Flores is 0-2 in his second season as head coach of the Dolphins. Last season, he led the team to a 5-11 record so it’s not really a surprise why Miami dropped its first two assignments. The Dolphins used the 5th pick of the 2020 NFL draft to select Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He is expected to be the future of the Dolphins. However, since he is coming off an injury, Miami isn’t rushing him and they have decided to go with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starter.
Fitzpatrick threw three picks with no touchdowns in their loss to the Patriots in their season opener. He had a better outing the last time out, going 31-47 for 328 passing yards with two touchdowns. For the season, Fitzpatrick is completing 66.2% of his passes. He has one or no touchdowns in half of his last 10 starts.
Mike Gesicki and Davante Parker have combined for 250 receiving yards while Isaiah Ford has nine catches for the Dolphins. Miami’s ground game is putting up 93 yards per game after two weeks with Myles Gaskin picking up 86 yards on 16 carries. On defense, Jerome Baker leads the team with 22 tackles while Christian Wilkins has two pass deflections.
The Jacksonville Jaguars fell to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. The Jags trailed 24-10 at the half but they rallied back and were able to tie the game at 30 apiece. Tennessee regained the advantage with a 49-yard field goal with 1:45 left in the game. In their last play, Gardner Minshew was intercepted with 51 seconds to go and that sealed the victory for the Titans.
Gardner Minshew has completed 75.4% of his passes and has accounted for 512 passing yards, with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Minshew has thrown at least two touchdowns in four out of his last five starts. He threw for 339 yards with three scores and two picks against the Titans.
Laviska Shenault leads the Jaguars with six catches on the year. DJ Clark Jr and Keelan Cole Sr. have combined for three touchdowns and a total of 214 receiving yards. James Robinson has been their top rusher with 164 yards and one touchdown. The Jaguars are averaging 128 yards on the ground per contest. Defensively, Jacksonville’s Myles Jack leads the Jaguars with 22 tackles while Andrew Winger has one interception and K’Lavon Chaisson with one sack.
Miami is 5-15 SU in their last 20 games played. The Dolphins are 2-14 SU in their last 16 games played on the road and 0-7 SU in their last seven September games. Jacksonville is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played. The Jaguars are 2-5 SU in their last seven Week 3 games, and 4-2 SU in their last six Thursday games. Head to head, the Jaguars are 5-4 SU in their last nine games played.
Miami’s defense has looked bad early on. They gave up 217 rushing yards to the New England Patriots in week 1. Last week, they allowed Josh Allen to throw a career-high 417 yards and a career-best 4 touchdown passes. Star cornerback Byron Jones injured his groin against Buffalo and is expected to miss this game. Miami fans chanted “Tua” after the loss to the Bills but given a short turnaround, that will have to wait for at least another week.
Even though they are just 1-1, the Jaguars are one of the early surprises of the season. They beat the Colts in Week 1 as seven-point underdogs and they came back from a 14-point deficit last week, only to fall to the Titans. Minshew may not have one of his top protectors in this game as center Brandon Linder suffered a knee injury in their loss to the Titans. If Linder can’t play, veteran Tyler Shatley will replace him.
I was leaning on going with the over here but if you ask me to pick a winner, I will have to go with the Jaguars. The short price is tempting and Jacksonville should have no problem scoring against the Miami defense.
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played. Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the AFC, and 1-5 ATS in their last six Week 3 games. The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played. Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in their last five September games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the AFC. Head to head, the Jaguars are 2-1 ATS in their last three games played against the Dolphins.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have played better than expected in the first two weeks of the season. They are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS despite being 7-point underdogs in both games. Gardner Minshew has thrown three touchdowns in his last three games played, marking a first in Jacksonville franchise history. Miami has dropped all but two of their last 16 road games and it’s hard to trust them right now. The spread is less than a field goal and I don’t think it will matter much. Unless you give me the Dolphins at plus one touchdown or better, I’ll go with the home team here.
Prediction: Jaguars -2.5
The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by Miami. The Dolphins have seen the total go over in their two games played this season. However, the under is 4-2 in their last six games against the AFC South Division. The total has gone over in six out of the last nine games played by Jacksonville. The over is 4-1 in the Jaguars’ last five games played at home, and 6-1 in their last seven games against the AFC. Head to head, the total has gone under in six out of the last seven meetings between these two teams.
Miami’s defense was awful last season, allowing 30 points per game. They have given up an average of 26 points per game during the first two weeks of the 2020 season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have seen the total go 47 and 63 in their first two assignments of the year. With the way they have started the season, I expect Fitzpatrick and Minshew to throw enough scores to get this game over the total.
Prediction: Over 48
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