Blake Daniels, February 24, 2023

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The Miami Heat return from the All-Star Break with a visit to the Fiserv Forum and a date with the Milwaukee Bucks.

Miami is 32-27 SU on the season and they are in 7th place in the Eastern Conference team standings. The Heat are just one-half game behind the 6th-seeded New York Knicks for the final outright playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They are also only 4.5 games off 4th-seeded Cleveland and with still plenty of games left, the Heat can still climb the playoff ladder.

Milwaukee is in a better place right now. The Bucks are 41-17 SU on the season and they are just one game behind the Boston Celtics for the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Buck entered the All-Str break as the hottest team in the NBA with 12 straight wins. They look to keep the momentum going as they attempt to overtake Boston on top of the East mountain.

Miami Heat

The Heat have lost their last two games played and they are coming off a 116-105 loss to the Brooklyn Nets. Miami was up by four points at the half but was outscored 64-49 in the second half.

Bam Adebayo led the Heat with a double-double at 24 points and 13 rebounds while Gabe Vincent added 21 and Max Strus 18. Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin both had 13 points a the Heat were without Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Nikola Jovic.

Butler leads the Heat in scoring at 21.7 points per game while Bam Adebayo leads the team in rebounding at 10.0 rebounds per game while also scoring 21.6 points per contest. Herro is also scoring 20.6 points per game but he won’t be available for Miami on Friday.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks extended their winning streak to 12 games when they defeated the Chicago Bulls last Thursday. The win was costly however as Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a wrist injury. Giannis saw minimal playing time at the All-Star game and he is expected to be out of this game with a sprained ligament on his right wrist.

Milwaukee is 7-0 SU this month and they have lost a game since January 23. In their last game, Brook Lopez took over and scored 33 points while Jevon Carter added 22 to lead the Bucks. Jrue Holiday and AJ Green both scored 15 while Grayson Allen had 10 off the bench.

Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks in scoring at 31.8 points per game while Jrue Holiday is putting up 19.4 points per outing. Lopez is scoring 14.5 points per game while Bobby Portis is a walking double-double at 14.4 points and 10.1 rebounds per game.

Heat vs Bucks SU Prediction

The Heat are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bucks. Miami is 0-4 SU in their last four games played in Milwaukee.

Miami Heat SU trends:

• The Heat are 3-2 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Heat are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played on the road.
• The Heat are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games played in February.
• The Heat are 5-10 in their last 15 road games against the Eastern Conference.
• The Heat are 15-17 SU in their last 32 games played overall against the Eastern Conference.

Milwaukee Bucks SU trends:

• The Bucks are 12-0 SU in their last 12 games played.
• The Bucks are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games played at home.
• The Bucks are 4-1 SU in their last 5 Friday games.
• The Bucks are 23-13 SU in their last 36 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Bucks are 13-4 SU in their last 17 home games played against the Eastern Conference.

Right before the All-Star break, the Bucks suffered a scare when Giannis Antetokounmpo hurt his right wrist during their Thursday game against the Chicago Bulls. Antetokounmpo played in just 9 minutes and did not return to action. But Milwaukee still prevailed behind 33 points from Brook Lopez and 22 from Jevon Carter.

During last weekend’s All-Star game, Giannis scored on a dunk early and did not return to action. He had his wrist checked and the Bucks are lucky that he avoided serious damage. Still, Antetokounmpo will not play in this game because of a sprained ligament. He will underdog treatment and return once the pain subsides.

On the other hand, the Heat lost to the Brooklyn Nets 116-105 in their final game before the All-Star break. New acquisition Mikal Bridges unloaded 45 points on Miami along with 8 rebounds and 5 assists. Bam Adebayo was the high man for the Heat with 24 points and 13 rebounds while Gabe Vincent added 21 markers.

The Heat played without Kyle Lowry, Victor Oladipo, Tyler Herro, and Nikola Jovic when they lost to the Nets. Lowry isn’t expected to return until the end of the month while Oladipo is dealing with an ankle issue and Herro a left knee contusion.

Meanwhile, the Bucks are expected to have Bobby Portis and Jae Crowder back on Friday. Portis has not played since January 23 while Crowder has yet to see action for his new team. Their presence should help the Bucks deal with Antetokounmpo’s absence.

Aside from Giannis, Khris Middleton and Pat Conaughton are unsure about Friday’s game. Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks in scoring at 31.8 points per game while also grabbing 12.2 boards per contest.

Miami is built differently with six different players scoring in double digits. They are led by Jimmy Butler’s 21.7 PPG and Adebayo’s 21.6 points per contest. I think this balanced scoring attack helps Miami in this game. Miami is hungrier for this win right now and they should show up more determined on Friday night. Give me the Heat here.

Prediction: Miami Heat

Heat vs Bucks ATS Prediction

The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Bucks. Miami is also 1-3 ATS in their last four games played in Milwaukee.

Miami Heat ATS trends:

• The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Heat are 37-16 ATS in their last 53 games playing on 3 or more days of rest.
• The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
• The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.

Milwaukee Bucks ATS trends:

• The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up win.
• The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The Bucks are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 Friday home games played.
• The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games played.

The Heat are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played while the Bucks have covered the betting spread in five out of their last six games. Looking at the teams’ ATS trends, the Bucks have the edge. Milwaukee has also won 12 in a row.

However, I think that the law of averages is going to catch up with the Bucks, especially with Giannis out. Sure, there’s a chance that Midleton and Portis return to action on Friday but the Heat have the depth to match up with the Bucks. Given that Miami has its stars Butler and Adebayo, I have to go with the Heat in a close game.

Prediction: Heat +1.5

Heat vs Bucks Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games played between these two teams. The over is 4-0 in the last four games played between these two teams in Milwaukee.

Miami Heat over/under trends:

• The under is 4-0 in the Heat’s last 4 Friday games.
• The under is 9-2 in the Heat’s last 11 games played against the Central Division.
• The over is 4-1 in the Heat’s last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Heat’s last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 games following a straight-up loss.
• The over is 10-4 in the Heat’s last 14 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• The over is 7-3 in the Heat’s last 10 games versus a team with a winning % above .600.
• The over is 38-18 in the Heat’s last 56 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.

Milwaukee Bucks over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 overall.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 7-3 in the Bucks’ last 10 games played against the Southeast Division.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games following a straight-up win
• The under is 6-1 in the Bucks’ last 7 games playing on 3 or more days’ rest
• The over is 6-1 in the Bucks’ last 7 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The over is 15-5 in the Bucks’ last 20 home games.

The Bucks are 11th in the NBA in pace however, they will be without their leading scorer here, and Giannis is scoring 30+ per game this season. Milwaukee will be facing a Miami team that is 28th in pace. The Heat are also second in defensive efficiency on the road while the Bucks are 6th in defensive efficiency when playing at home.

The total has averaged 214 points per game in Miami’s last five games played while the Bucks have seen the total hit 229.8 points per game in their last five games played. But then again, Giannis won’t be playing for the Bucks and that’s plenty of points to miss. I like these teams to go under the total.

Prediction: Under 220