Blake Daniels, December 1, 2022

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The Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions on Sunday.

Jacksonville is 4-7 SU on the season and they are in 2nd place in the AFC South Division, behind the 7-4 Tennessee Titans. The Jaguars have won two out of their last three games played after a five-game losing streak. In their last assignment, the Jaguars defeated the Baltimore Ravens 28-27 last weekend.

Detroit is also 4-7 SU on the season and they are also second in the NFC North Division, trailing the 9-2 SU Minnesota Vikings. The Lions saw their three-game winning streak end last week when the Buffalo Bills edged them 28-25. Detroit also had a five-game losing streak earlier this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville’s offense was held in check during their 5-game losing streak with the Jaguars unable to score more than 17 points in a game during that stretch. In the last three weeks, however, they have scored at least 27 and are coming off a 28-27 win over the Baltimore Ravens.

Trevor Lawrence had a big game against the Ravens as he threw for 321 yards with 3 TD passes and without an interception on 29-37 passing Zay Jones was the primary beneficiary of Lawrence’s strong game with 11 catches for 145 receiving yards. Running back Travis Etienne is listed as questionable to play in this game.

The Jaguars’ defense allowed 415 yards and produced one sack and recovered two fumbles. That defense is ranked 24th in yards allowed at 362.9 while allowing 21.1 points per game this season, 15th overall. Dewuane Smoot leads the team with5 sacks while Andre Cisco has three interceptions.

Detroit Lions

The Lions went toe-to-toe with the Buffalo Bills last week and they kept the game close up until the final whistle. Detroit forced a 25-25 tie with 23 seconds left in the game but Josh Allen needed only 21 seconds to drive the ball to field goal range and the Bills beat the Lions on a last-second field goal.

Detroit’s offense has averaged 26.4 points per game in their last 5 games played and has scored at least 27 in four of those games. Jared Goff completed 23 of 37 passes for 240 yards with two scores while Amon-ra St. Brown caught 9 passes for 122 yards and one TD grab. C Evan Brown, G Jonah Jackson, and CB Jeff Okudah are all listed as questionable.

Their defense struggled against the Bills, allowing 401 total yards. The Lions did get one interception to push their season total to 9, including 3 by Kerby Joseph. Aidan Hutchinson leads the team with 5.5 of the team’s total 20 sacks while also recording two INTs and a fumble recovery.

Jaguars vs Lions SU Prediction

The Jaguars are 0-3 SU in their last 3 games played against the Lions. Jacksonville is 1-2 SU in their last three road games played in Detroit.

Jacksonville Jaguars SU trends:

• The Jaguars are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games played.
• The Jaguars are 1-19 SU in their last 20 games played at home.
• The Jaguars are 0-9 SU in their last 9 games played against the NFC.
• The Jaguars are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games played against the NFC North Division.

Detroit Lions SU trends:

• The Lions are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games played.
• The Lions are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played at home.
• The Lions are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games played against the AFC.
• The Lions are 4-15 SU in their last 19 games played against the AFC South Division.

Jacksonville erased a deficit four times before winning last week against the Ravens. With that victory, the Jaguars have now won two out of their last three games played. But both wins were at home and they continue to struggle when playing away from home, losing their last three. The Jaguars have surrendered at least 30 points in those three road losses.

Trevor Lawrence has been the difference maker in Jacksonville’s recent good performance. Last week, he threw 3 TDs in the 4th quarter and now has six TDs without an INT in his last three games played, after just four TDs and 2 INTs in his previous four outings. Travis Etienne is questionable with a foot injury. He had been playing well of late, with four rush TDs and 3 100-yard rushing games in his last four appearances.

After struggling to a 1-6 SU start, the Lions are 3-1 SU in their last four games played and have limited their last 4 opponents to 18 points or less. Detroit’s defensive line has shown an improved performance with 8 sacks over their last three games played. The secondary has also produced 7 picks over their last four games.

Jamaal Williams has helped spark the Lions’ offensive resurgence. The 27-year-old has scored a TD in each of the last three weeks and has 7 total TDS in his last 5 games played. Amon-ra St. Brown has averaged 106.3 receiving yards in the last 3 weeks. He also recorded his first TD since Week 2.

Lawrence has been playing well as of late. However, the offensive line has allowed 9 sacks and the Jaguars have been held scoreless in the first quarter in their two previous games.

The Lions’ offense has stepped up in recent weeks and Detroit has scored more than enough points to pick up wins. No question, the Jaguars are improving but right now, the Lions are better.

Prediction: Detroit Lions -123

Jaguars vs Lions ATS Prediction

The Jaguars are 0-3 ATS in the last 3 games played between these two teams. Jacksonville is also 1-2 ATS in their last 3 road games in Detroit. The betting favorite is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

Jacksonville Jaguars ATS trends:

• The Jaguars are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
• The Jaguars are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games
• The Jaguars are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games in Week 13.
• The Jaguars are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Jaguars are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Jaguars are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win.
• The Jaguars are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• The Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• The Jaguars are 5-19-2 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Jaguars are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf
• The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in December.

Detroit Lions ATS trends:

• The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
• The Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• The Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record.
• The Lions are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games on field turf.
• The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.

It took the Lions a while before they got their offense going but now they are playing well and despite having just a 3-2 SU record over their last 5 games played, they have been in the game in all of those contests. Four of those games were decided by six points or less with their two losses coming by a combined losing margin of 7 points.

The Jaguars will bring the momentum of their win over the Ravens to this game. Trevor Lawrence played his best game of the season against Baltimore. However, Lawrence has been held to under 200 passing yards twice in their last four games played and his teammates have not shown the consistency to build a winning streak.

I expect a good fight from the Jaguars but the improving Lions should win this game.

Prediction: Lions -1

Jaguars vs Lions Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in four out of the last 7 games played between these two teams. The under is 2-1 in their last 3 head-to-head meetings played in Detroit.

Jacksonville Jaguars over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Jaguars’ last 5 games overall.
• The under is 5-1 in the Jaguars’ last 6 Week 13 games played.
• The under is 4-1 in the Jaguars’ last 5 games versus a team with a losing record.
• The under is 11-3 in the Jaguars’ last 14 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 6-2 in the Jaguars’ last 8 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 10-4 in the Jaguars’ last 14 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 9-4 in the Jaguars’ last 13 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 9-2 in the Jaguars’ last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The over is 6-2 in the Jaguars’ last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 4-0 in the Jaguars’ last 4 games on field turf.
• The over is 6-1 in the Jaguars’ last 7 road games.

Detroit Lions over/under trends:

• The over is 9-4 in the Lions’ last 13 games overall.
• The over is 5-2 in the Lions’ last 7 home games.
• The over is 9-3 in the Lions’ last 12 games played on a Sunday.
• The over is 11-3 in the Lions’ last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The over is 8-2 in the Lions’ last 10 games in Week 13.
• The over is 6-1 in the Lions’ last 7 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 10-4 in the Lions’ last 14 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

These are two teams who are ranked in the Top 10 in the offense this season. The Lions are 8th at 362.9 yards per game while the Jaguars are right behind them at no. 9 with their 359.5 yards per outing average.

Detroit has scored 27 or more points in four out of their last five games played while the Jaguars have done the same twice in their last three assignments. The Lions have conceded at least 28 points 7 times in their last 9 games played while the Jaguars have allowed at least 27 points thrice in their last 5 outings.

As stated earlier, the Detroit offense is in a groove right now and with Trevor Lawrence coming off his best game of the year, this one should be a high-scoring affair.

Prediction: Over 51.5