Blake Daniels, January 19, 2023

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The Jacksonville Jaguars hit the road on Saturday as they try to upset the Super Bowl LVII favorites Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

Jacksonville defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30 in their wild-card matchup last week. The Jaguars trailed 27-0 before rallying in the second half to win the game. Meanwhile, the Chiefs drew a bye after leading the AFC in the conference team standings. Kansas City is favored to win not just the AFC but is the current favorite to win it all this season.

Kansas City defeated Jacksonville 27-17 in their most recent meeting last November 13, 2022. The Chiefs are 7-3 SU in their last 10 head-to-head meetings against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars fell behind 27-0 last week against the Chargers but instead of folding, they fought back and outscored L.A. 31-3 the rest of the way to pull off a stunning come-from-behind win and advance to the Divisional Round.

 Trevor Lawrence threw for 288 yards and had four TDs but had 4 INTs against the Chargers. Travis Etienne rushed for 109 yards while Evan Engram caught 7 passes for 93 yards with one touchdown catch in the victory. Linebacker Foyesade Oluokun led the team with 13 tackles but the Jaguars’ defense recorded only three sacks and did not force a single interception.

The Jaguars were 12th in the NFL in scoring defense at 20.6 points per game allowed and 24th in total yards allowed at 353.3 yards per game. On offense, Jacksonville was 10th in total offense at 357.5 yards per game and 23.8 points scored per game. The Jaguars also ranked 10th in passing offense at 232.9 yards per game this season.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs will make their playoff debut after taking a bye last week as the top seed in the AFC Conference playoffs. Kansas City was the league’s top-scoring team during the regular season at 29.2 points per game and was also no. 1 in total offense at 413.6 yards per contest. The Chiefs were just 20th in rushing at 115.9 yards per game but were the top passing team in the NFL during the regular season with 297.8 yards per contest

Patrick Mahomes passed for 5,250 yards during the regular season while leading the league in passing TDs with 41 and throwing only 12 INTs. Isaiah Pacheco led the team with 830 rushing yards and five TD runs. Travis Kelce was the team leader with 110 receptions and 1,338 receiving yards with 12 TDs.

Defense is an issue for the Chiefs. They ranked just 16th in the league with 21.7 points allowed per game and 11th in total yards allowed at 328.2 yards per game. Linebacker Nick Bolton led the team with 180 tackles and the KC defense finished the regular season with 55 QB sacks and 11 INTs.

Jaguars vs Chiefs SU Prediction

The Jaguars are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the Chiefs. Kansas City is 5-1 SU in their last 6 home games against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville Jaguars SU trends:

• The Jaguars are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Jaguars are 4-16 SU in their last 20 games played on the road.
• The Jaguars are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the AFC.
• The Jaguars are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games played against the AFC West Division.
• The Jaguars are 4-2 SU in their last 6 road games against the AFC.

Kansas City Chiefs SU trends:

• The Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Chiefs are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games played at home.
• The Chiefs are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games played against the AFC.
• The Chiefs are 5-1 SU in their last 6 home games against the AFC.
• The Chiefs are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played on a Saturday.

The Jaguars are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, winning their 6th consecutive game against the Los Angeles Chargers last week. The win gave QB Trevor Lawrence a 37-0 SU record when playing on a Saturday with that record dating back to his high school days.

Lawrence’s record will be put to its toughest test on Saturday when he faces Patrick Mahomes and the Super Bowl favorites Chiefs. In his last start against Kansas City, Lawrence completed 29 of 40 passes for 259 yards with two TDs and zero interceptions. However, Jacksonville was 3-7 SU at that point of the season. They have gone 7-1 SU since then while covering the spread in six of those games.

The Chiefs are on a 5-game winning run and have lost just once in their last 11 games played. Kansas City’s lone loss during that stretch was against Cincinnati in Week 13 when they dropped a narrow 27-24 game to Joe Burrow and the Bengals.

In their first meeting this season, the Chief jumped the gun on the Jaguars and raced to a 20-0 lead before giving up a touchdown shortly before halftime. They were in control for most of the game and easily covered the betting spread. Kansas City has put up at least 24 points in 9 consecutive games.

The Jaguars should be high on confidence on Saturday after their impressive come-from-behind win over the Chargers. Jacksonville attempted a similar comeback against the Chiefs the last time out but came up short. Doug Pederson knows Andy Reid better than any NFL coach so that could also play a part here.

It’s hard to beat the Chiefs when they are coming off a bye week. Kansas City i 21-3 SU in their last 24 games under those circumstances. Like the Jaguars, they head to this matchup on a winning run. Kansas City has been in this situation before and Mahomes surely knows what to do to win. Give me the Chiefs, their offenses, and their experience to win this game.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

Jaguars vs Chiefs ATS Prediction

The Jaguars are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 games played between these two teams. The favorite is also 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 head-to-head meetings between the Jaguars and Chiefs.

Jacksonville Jaguars ATS trends:

• The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Jaguars are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• The Jaguars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record
• The Jaguars are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 versus the AFC
• The Jaguars are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
• The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• The Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
• The Jaguars are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Jaguars are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Jaguars are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games played against the AFC West Division.

Kansas City Chiefs ATS trends:

• The Chiefs are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• The Chiefs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
• The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff home games.
• The Chiefs are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games played against the AFC.
• The Chiefs are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points
• The Chiefs are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight-up win
• The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game
• The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win
• The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Chiefs are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games played on a Saturday.

The Kansas City Chiefs offense is led by the passing game of Patrick Mahomes. Against the Jaguars, they should be able to find plenty of success.

Jacksonville’ secondary allowed 238.5 passing yards per game during the regular season and gave up 273 passing yards to Justin Herbert in their wild-card win. Mahomes threw only 1 interception in his last four games played. He also led the league with 41 passing TDs during the regular season.

Weather could also be a factor as snow and rain are expected on Saturday night. The Chiefs are more familiar with those conditions and should have the advantage if the weather does end up becoming a factor.

Jacksonville has failed to cover in six out of its last 7 games played against Kansas City while the Chiefs have covered in six out of their last 8 postseason home games.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -9

Jaguars vs Chiefs Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in four out of the last five games played between these two teams. The under is also 4-1 in the last five games played in Kansas City.

Jacksonville Jaguars over/under trends:

• The under is 3-1 in the Jaguars’ last 4 games played.
• The over is 8-3 in the Jaguars’ last 11 road games.
• The over is 4-0 in the Jaguars’ last 4 games against a team with a winning record.
• The over is 4-1 in the Jaguars’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Jaguars’ last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Jaguars’ last 5 games on grass.
• The over is 6-2-2 in the Jaguars’ last 10 Saturday games.
• The under is 9-3 in the Jaguars’ last 12 games in January.
• The under is 7-3 in the Jaguars’ last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
• The under is 4-0 in the Jaguars’ last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Kansas City Chiefs over/under trends:

• The under is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 home games.
• The under is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games on grass.
• The under is 7-3 in the Chiefs’ last 10 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last 7 versus a team with a winning record.
• The under is 4-0 in the Chiefs’ last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record
• The under is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 Saturday games
• The over is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The over is 10-3 in the Chiefs’ last 13 games in January.
• The over is 8-3 in the Chiefs’ last 11 games following an ATS win.
• The over is 7-3 in the Chiefs’ last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

The Chiefs were the top-scoring team in the NFL during the regular season at 29.2 points per game. Although the weather could be a factor on Saturday, the Chiefs are all too familiar with those conditions and shouldn’t be too much affected.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars have scored 31 or more points in four out of their last 6 games played, and have shown improved offense during the latter part of the season and in their wild-card game against the Chargers.

The total is quite high but given the Kansas City offensive machine’s prowess and Jacksonville’s improved offense, this one should be a high-scoring game that will hit the over.

Prediction: Over 52