The Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks resume their Best-of-Seven first round playoff series on Monday night at the American Airlines Center.
Utah took advantage of the absence of Mavs superstar Luka Doncic who missed the game after straining his calf in their final regular season game. With Doncic unable to weave his Luka Magic, Donovan Mitchell took over in the second half to lead the Jazz to a 99-93 win over the 4th seeded Mavericks.
With the win, the Jazz have taken home-court advantage from the Mavericks. There is no official word on Doncic’s status for Game 2 but reports say that Doncic is unlikely to play on Monday. However, with Game 2 being a must-win game for the Mavs, they will need Doncic on the court if they do not want to head to Salt Lake City down 0-2 in the series.
Utah didn’t just beat Dallas in Game 1 but also covered the 5.5 betting spread. However, it wasn’t easy. The Mavs kept the game close despite playing without Luka Doncic, trailing just 45-43 at the half. But Donovan Mitchell put up 30 of his 32 points after the break after shooting just 1-9 in the first half to give the Jazz the 99-93 win and a 1-0 series lead.
Bojan Bogdanovic added 26 points on 11-20 shooting with five rebounds and four assists. Rudy Gobert took just one shot and scored only five points, all from the free-throw line but grabbed 7 rebounds and blocked 3 shots. Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson also scored 13 and 10 points, respectively.
The Jazz are 7th in the league in scoring at 113.6 points per game this season but just 27th in passing at 22.4 assists per game. They are 3rd in rebounding at 46.3 boards grabbed per contest and 10th in scoring defense at 107.6 points per game allowed.
The Mavericks lost Game 1 but they showed a lot of fight even without Luka Doncic. The Mavs trailed by just 2 points at the half and managed to get as close as 91-92 on a Max Kleiber three-pointer with 2:12 left in the game. Dallas even had a chance to take the lead on the next play but Kleiber missed a three and the Jazz ended up making the big shots and taking the win.
Jalen Brunson had 24 points for the Mavericks but he made only 9 of 24 shots. Spencer Dinwiddie added 22 points with 8 assists while Reggie Bullock made three three-pointers on his way to 15 points and six rebounds and Dorian Finney-Smith contributed 14 points for Dallas.
The Mavs rank 24th in the NBA in scoring at 108.0 points. They are also just 25th in passing at 23.4 assists per game. Dallas is 24th off the glass at only 43.0 rebounds per game. The Mavericks have the league’s second-best scoring defense at 104.7 points per game allowed.
Utah is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Jazz are 2-4 SU in their last six games played on the road, and 15-12 in their last 27 games against the Western Conference.
Dallas is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Mavericks are 6-1 SU in their last seven games played at home, and 20-7 SU in their last 27 home games against the Western Conference.
Head to head, the Jazz are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Mavericks.
Donovan Mitchell finished strong after a slow start while Rudy Gobert took just one shot but grabbed 17 rebounds and blocked three shots. The Jazz missed only three of 20 free throws while making just 26 of 34 which was huge in a game decided by only six points.
Luka Doncic returned to the practice court and did some shooting over the weekend but the Mavericks’ star is still not expected to play in Game 2. Without Doncic in the series opener, the Mavs fell to the Jazz but not after giving a good account of themselves.
The Mavs took the early lead before falling behind by double-digits. They rallied to cut the lead to one in the closing minutes of the game and even had a chance to grab the upper hand but could not capitalize.
I think we’ll see a similar game on Monday. Although they are without Doncic, the Mavs proved that they can compete against the Jazz. However, with Utah having a closer in Mitchell and the Mavs not having Doncic, the result should be the same as the previous game.
Prediction: Utah Jazz
The Jazz are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games played and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as betting favorites. However, the Jazz are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 10-27-2 ATS in their last 39 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as road favorites, 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage better than .600, 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one day rest.
The Mavericks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games played as home underdogs, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against an opponent with a winning record, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against after an ATS loss, 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games, and 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games when playing on one day rest. However, they are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as betting underdogs.
Dallas’ trends look impressive but remember that Doncic played in all those games except the last one, which they lost. This is the postseason and the Jazz have covered the spread well in their recent playoff games, going 5-0 ATS in their last five quarterfinals games, and 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff games as betting favorites. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff games as underdogs and 1-5 ATS in their last six conference quarterfinals games.
Dallas shot terribly in Game 1 but they were still in the thick of the fight in the final two minutes of the game. That should give them confidence heading to this contest. I like the Mavs to keep it close and this game should be more or less than the same as the previous one. However, I still think that the Jazz will cover the current 5.5 spread. If you ask me, I’d go with Utah for any spread lower than six points.
The total has gone under in four out of the last six games played by the Jazz. The under 11-2 in their last 13 games played on the road, 10-1 in their last 11 games as road favorites, 11-2 in their last 13 road games, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after an ATS win, 4-1 in their last five Monday games, 4-1 in their last five road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage better than .600, 4-1 in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games when playing on one day rest, and 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after a straight-up win.
The total has gone under in each of the last four Monday games played by the Jazz. The under is 20-6 in their last 26 games as home underdogs, 6-2 in their last eight games after a straight-up loss, 28-11 in their last 39 games against an opponent with a winning percentage of at least .600, 47-19-1 in their last 67 home games, 43-18 in their last 61 games as betting underdog, 15-7 in their last 22 home games against an opponent with a losing home record, and 39-19-1 in their last 59 games after an ATS loss.
Head to head, the total has gone under in six out of the last eight meetings between these two teams. The under is also 4-0 in their last four meetings in Dallas.
These teams have combined to score an average of 206.67 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings, including only 192 points in Game 1. With Doncic’s status still uncertain for this game, you can’t expect Dallas’ offense to be much better in Game 2.
The total has gone under in four out of the last five quarterfinals games played by the Mavs. The under is also 4-1 in their last five playoff games as betting favorites. These two teams ranked in the Top 10 in scoring defense with Dallas at no. 2 and Utah at no. 10.
205 points look too low for a total for any team but considering the absence of Luka Doncic and the defense that these two teams play. I’ll take my shot at another under in Game 2.
Prediction: Under 205
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