Blake Daniels, October 18, 2022

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The Los Angeles Lakers open their 2022-23 NBA campaign against the defending NBA champions Golden State Warriors at the Dub’s Chase Center on Tuesday night.

Los Angeles is coming off a disappointing 2021-22 NBA season where they won just 33 games and missed the playoffs. The Lakers added guards Patrick Beverley and Dennis Schroder during the offseason. But despite their talents, the two won’t be able to fill the Lakers’ need for three-point shooting. LeBron James is chasing history and that could be a distraction they don’t need right now.

Golden State is the opposite. The Dubs were the 3rd seed in the West but went on a solid playoff run to win the 2022 NBA championship. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson were back as Splash Brothers and if they were not enough, Jordan Poole emerged as an elite scorer during the playoffs and now opponents have to worry about 3 Splash Brothers now.

These two teams also played each other in their season openers last year and the Dubs beat the Lakers 121-114 in that game.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers fired head coach Frank Vogel after a 33-49 season. Enter Darvin Ham, the former Bucks assistant. The Lakers added Patrick Beverley and Dennis Schroder to add to a backcourt that already has Russell Westbrook. LeBron James and Anthony Davis look healthy to open the season but it remains to be seen if they can play all 82 regular season games.

LeBron James is on the verge of breaking Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time scoring mark. James put up 30.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game last season but missed a total of 26 games which was one of the reasons why the Lakers struggled. Anthony Davis put up 23.2 points and 7.7 rebounds per game but missed 44 games due to injury. LeBron is already 27 and AD’s long-term health remains a question mark. Schroder and Thomas Bryant will begin the season on the injured list and Westbook could also miss some time with a hamstring injury suffered during the preseason.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors won their 4th NBA title in the last 8 seasons during the 2021-22 campaign. Golden State upset no. 2 Memphis in the second round of the playoff and went on to represent the West in the 2022 NBA Finals. In the title series, the Warriors fell down 1-2 before winning the last three games of the championship to clinch the title against the upstart Boston Celtics.

Steph Curry put up 25.5 points per game during the regular season and then went on to win Finals MVP. Klay Thompson missed 50 games and imagine how good the Dubs would have been had he played the entire campaign. Andrew Wiggins is coming off an All-Star year while Jordan Poole had a breakout postseason. The Dubs will also be getting center James Wiseman back so this team is as loaded as it can get, plus the championship experience and the three-point shooting.

Prediction:

The Lakers are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Warriors. Golden State is, however, 14-4 SU in their last 18 home games against the L.A. Lakers.

Los Angeles Lakers SU trends:

• The Lakers are 3-17 SU in their last 20 games played on the road.
• The Lakers are also 3-7 SU in their last 10 road games as betting underdogs.
• The Lakers are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played against the Pacific Division.
• The Lakers are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played against the Western Conference.

Golden State Warriors SU trends:

• The Warriors are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played overall.
• The Warriors are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games played at home.
• The Warriors are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played against the Western Conference.
• The Warriors are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Pacific Division.

Golden State had the third-best record in the NBA last season and then went 16-6 SU during the postseason to win their 4th NBA title in the last eight seasons. Now the Warriors are greedy to win their 5th in nine years. The Dubs won 3 of four against the Lakers last season, winning their last two head-to-head meetings. Klay Thompson had 33 points in each of those two wins for the Warriors.

The Warriors will return the core of last season’s title squad, including their starting unit. However, the Dubs lost two key contributors in Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton Jr. They have however added Donte DiVincenzo and JaMychal Green to try and fill the void. Golden State is coming off a preseason marred by the punching incident involving Draymond Green and Jordan Poole.

Meanwhile, the Lakers have regressed during the past two seasons. Los Angeles won the title during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. They went 42-30 SU a year later and were even worse at 33-49 SU last season as they missed the playoffs after opening with high odds to win the title. LeBron James and Anthony Davis combined to miss a total of 68 games last season, essentially crippling the Lakers’ rotation.

The Lakers hired a new head coach in Darvin Ham who replaced Frank Vogel after the disappointing season. Anthony Davis and LeBron James looked healthy during the preseason. However, Dennis Schroder and Thomas Davis are already listed out of this game. James, Davis, and Carmelo Anthony are still listed as day-to-day. Los Angles also added Patrick Beverley during the offseason to help inject energy into the Lakers.

Given their offseason moves and roster changes, and their body language during the preseason, it’s clear that the Warriors are the more ready to take this game. It’s Ring Night at Chase Center. Unless the Green vs Poole issue has not been settled yet, I have to go with the Warriors here. Los Angeles’ injury woes are piling up and the season has yet to start. The Warriors have the better team here and it will show on Tuesday night.

Prediction: Warriors -250

Los Angeles Lakers ATS trends:

• The Lakers are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games played.
• The Lakers are also 3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games played.
• The Lakers are 3-1 ATS in their last four road games as betting underdogs.
• The Lakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 October games.
• The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after an ATS loss.
• The Lakers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games played against an opponent from the Western Conference.
• The Lakers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Pacific Division.
• The Lakers are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Western Conference.

Golden State Warriors ATS trends:

• The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.
• The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• The Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.

LeBron James looked great during the preseason but with the All-Time scoring record in his grasp, I think there is tons of pressure on King James this year more than ever. The Lakers added Dennis Schroder and Patrick Beverley during the offseason but they did not address their lack of three-point shooting. That could be disastrous against an opponent with the greatest shooter ever, and a squad whose Splash Brothers got the third bro last season in Jordan Poole.

Golden State looked great during the preseason. Steph Curry was Steph Curry. Klay Thompson looked better than last season and James Wiseman played well coming off the injury. Ring night could work either way for the champion team but against a Los Angeles Lakers team that is still trying to find its identity, I like Golden State’s chances.

LeBron James is 7-12 in his career during season openers. He is 0-4 in season openers when playing for the Lakers. The Lakers have lost by at least 7 points in those four games, including 121-114 last season as 3.5-point underdogs. In that game, the Dubs played without Klay Thompson who is now much better than he was last season after his injuries.

Los Angeles also played terribly during the preseason which means that they are still grappling for form and cohesion. Darvin Ham is said to be a good find but I don’t think he can right the ship immediately. Golden State has plenty of shooters. I think they’ll be splashing the nets here and will beat the L.A. Lakers in this game. Prediction; Warriors -6

Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in each of the last four head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The over is also 3-0 in their last three games played in Golden State.

Los Angeles Lakers over/under trends:

• The over is 9-4 in the Lakers’ last 13 overall.
• Over is 20-8 in the Lakers’ last 28 road games.
• Over is 8-3 in the Lakers’ last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Over is 5-2 in the Lakers’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• Over is 9-4 in the Lakers’ last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-0 in the Lakers ‘last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

Golden State Warriors over/under trends:

• Under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 overall.
• Under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-2 in the Warriors’ last 9 games following a straight-up loss.
• Under is 39-15 in the Warriors’ last 54 Tuesday games.
• Under is 5-0 in the Warriors’ last five October games.
• Over is 5-1 in the Warrior’s last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• Over is 6-3 in the Warriors’ last 9 games played against the Pacific Division.

The total for this game opened at 229.5 but has dropped to 225 in the latest odds boards. These teams have scored at least a combined 225 points in five out of their six head-to-head meetings, and have gone over the total in each of their last 4 games. The Lakers also played to the over in 20 of 28 road games last season.

There’s no doubt that there is plenty of firepower on both sides. This is just the first game of the season. I don’t expect these teams to be in playoff form as far as defense is concerned. This one should be a high-scoring contest.

Prediction: Over 225.0