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Lamar Jackson NFL Prop Bets and Picks

Lamar Jackson is coming off one of the most statistically spectacular seasons we’ve ever seen from an NFL quarterback.

The 32nd pick of the 2018 NFL draft completed 66% of his passes while throwing for a total of 3,127 passing yards and leading the NFL with 36 passing touchdowns with only six interceptions. He also broked the single-season rushing mark for a quarterback by running for a total of 1,206 yards while adding seven rushing touchdowns for good measure.

Jackson led the Ravens to the best record in the NFL at 14-2 and they had home-field advantage throughout the entire postseason. However, Jackson’s season ended in disappointment again as the Ravens were upset by the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional round.

Despite that, Jackson was the unanimous choice for 2019 NFL MVP, and rightfully so. The former Heisman Trophy winner is looking to return to action to redeem himself in 2020. With the offs for the NFL’s 2020 season already up, the prop bets for Lamar Jackson’s 2020 statistics are also now available at the top football betting sites.

Here are the Lamar Jackson 2020 prop bets and predictions:

Lamar Jackson Passing Touchdowns

  • Over 26.5 (-110)
  • Under 26.5 (-110)

Jackson led the league with 36 passing touchdowns last season and at first look, a 10-touchdown decline in 2020 would be unthinkable. But the rationale behind this total is the difference between his 2018 and 2019 season productions.

During his rookie season, Jackson threw a total of 8 touchdowns in seven regular-season games started and one playoff game started or an average of 1.0 touchdown per start. In 2019, his average doubled to 2.1 touchdowns per start. If he is to start all 16 regular-season games in 2020, he will need an average of 1.69 touchdowns per game.

In his 15 starts last season, Jackson threw at least 2 touchdowns in 9 out of 15 games played and three or more scores in eight of those games. This is an easy bet if you base it on last year’s statistics.

Much has been talked about Jackson’s progress as a passer. Aside from that, he will have a slightly improved supporting cast around him. The Ravens picked up wide receivers Devin Duvernay and James Proche in the 2020 NFL Draft.

And then there is 2018 first-round pick Marquise Brown who was hounded by a foot injury during his rookie season. Brown can be a game-changer if the football is in his hands. Now that he’s healthy, we should see that this season.

Please Note

When you talk about a spectacular season, you should expect a regression. But by how much?

  • Carson Wentz led the NFL in touchdowns in 2017 and his TD% plummeted to 5.2% from 7.2%.
  • Likewise, Patrick Mahomes’ TD% dropped to 5.4% in 2019 after leading the NFL in TDs with an 8.5% TD%.

If we apply the same regression on Jackson and if he plays 16 games, that would be a total of 23 touchdowns for him.

Sure, Jackson will have opportunities to go over 26 touchdowns this season. But regression happened to everyone and Lamar is no exception. Unless he becomes a pass-first QB and starts throwing the ball more than we expect, I think the safe bet is to go for the under. That’s not even considering the possibility of injury.


Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards

  • Over 999.5 (-110)
  • Under 999.5 (-110)

After rushing for less than 700 yards during his rookie season, Lamar Jackson just exploded in 2019 and rushed for a total of 1,206 yards in 176 carries or an average of 6.9 yards per carry with seven rushing touchdowns scored. His 1,206 rushing yards ranked 6th overall in the league and the quarterback closest to him was rookie Kyler Murray who put up 544 yards on the ground.

There is no question that Lamar Jackson if more talented on the ground than he is with his arm. However, given that opponents had an offseason to study his explosive 2019 season, then expect defenses to go after him this year.

A few years back, the likes of Colin Kapernick and Robert Griffin III changed the way NFL quarterback run the offense. It worked for them the way it did for Lamar last season but eventually, defenses found a way to neutralize these dual-threat quarterbacks.

If we take a look at history, the last three quarterbacks to rush for at least 800 rounds didn’t top 600 in the next immediate season. After he rushed for 1039, Vick’s next season was ruined by legal issues. As for RG III, he rushed for 489 yards as a sophomore after going for 819 as a rookie. Randall Cunningham totaled just 549 yards after rushing for 942 a year earlier.

And then there is the fact that Lamar Jackson is the face of the Ravens. I expect the team to protect him more than Washington did RGIII.

If you remember, the physicality of the ground game eventually took its toll on Griffin and slowed him down. He’s Lamar’s backup now so the Ravens should know better.

Mark Ingram will return for the Ravens and they also picked up JK Dobbins in the draft so Lamar won’t have to do all the running by himself. All things considered, I think it’s prudent to bet on the under here. Jackson is more than just a running back to the Ravens so they will let him do everything else too. More importantly, I think that the Ravens will protect their franchise player from getting hurt.


Lamar Jackson Passing Yards

  • Over 3225.5 (-110)
  • Under 3225.5 (-110)

Lamar isn’t one of the most aggressive quarterbacks when it comes to passing. He only ranked 12th in the league in pass attempts. Not only is he a willing passer, but he is also a lethal one at 7.8 yards per pass last season

Baltimore doesn’t have superstar wide receivers on their roster but they have a very capable corps and they added even more weapons in the draft. I’m not saying that Lamar’s passing numbers depend on a pair of rookies but there is no doubt that he has more weapons this season.

Assuming he plays all 16 games, he will only have to average 201.5 passing yards per game to eclipse this total. That’s easy for a guy who completed 66.1% of his passes last season. Lamar averaged 208.4 passing yards per game last season and he continues to improve as a passer. I think Lamar leans closer to 4,000 yards this season.



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