Blake Daniels, August 1, 2022

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The Seattle Mariners head to Yankee Stadium to start a series with the New York Yankees.

Seattle is 55-48 on the season and is 2nd in the AL West division and is 12 games behind the Houston Astros in the division standings and is currently occupying the second Wild Card spot in the AL. The Mariners are just 4-6 in their last 10 games played.

New York is the best team in baseball at 69-34. They are 11.5 games ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays in the divisional standings and are tied with the Dodgers for the best record in baseball. New York is however struggling as of late as they have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games played.

This marks the first of six meetings between these two teams this season.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are coming off a 1-3 series loss to the Houston Astros. Seattle dropped Game 4 on Sunday 3-2 after Yordan Alvarez drove home the winning run in the 10th inning of a close game. The Mariners are now 4-6 in their last 10 games after winning 14 consecutive games.

Seattle is scoring 4.06 runs per game. They rank 24th in batting average at .235 and 12th in on-base percentage at .317 and 19th in slugging at .385. Ty France leads the Mariners with a .308 batting average while Julio Rodriguez leads the team with 57 RBIs and 18 home runs.

Marco Gonzales will open on top of the mound for the Mariners on Monday. The 30-year-old left-hander from Fort Collins, CO has a record of 6-10 with an ERA of 3.66 and a WHIP of 1.35. Gonzales allowed only two runs on four hits in seven innings pitched during a 4-2 win over the Texas Rangers.

New York Yankees

The Yankees looked like they were headed to a sweep of the Kansas City Royal but Salvador Perez hit a three-run home run in the 9th inning to give the Royals an 8-6 win on Sunday. With the loss, the Yankees had to settle for a 3-1 series win over the Royals. New York is just 5-5 in their last 10 games played.

New York is putting up 5.34 runs per game this season. They rank 14th in batting average at .245. The Yankees lead baseball in slugging percentage at .444 and are second in on-base percentage at .331. Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with a batting average of .300 with a league-best 42 home runs and 91 RBIs.

Domingo German will start for the Yankees in Game 1. The 29-year-old from the Dominican Republic is 0-1 with an ERA of 8.22 and a WHIP of 1.83 in two starts this season. German lasted only 4.2 innings in his last outing where he allowed two earned runs on five hits. The Yankees are 0-2 in his two starts.

Mariners vs Yankees Betting Prediction

The Mariners are 16-37 in the last 53 meetings between these two teams. Seattle is also 2-11 in their last 13 games played at Yankee Stadium.

The Mariners are:

• 21-7 in their last 28 overall.
• 20-7 in their last 27 road games.
• 6-0 in their last 6 against the American League East.
• 10-1 in their last 11 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• 5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 5-1 in their last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 8-2 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 11-3 in their last 14 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 22-7 in their last 29 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 6-2 in their last 8 Game 1s of a series.
• 21-7 in their last 28 games on grass.
• 22-8 in their last 30 games versus a right-handed starter.
• 11-4 in their last 15 road games against a right-handed starter.
• 19-7 in their last 26 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 8-3 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 21-8 in their last 29 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 9-4 in their last 13 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 2-8 in their last 10 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 2-8 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 1-6 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record.

The Yankees are:

• 62-28 in their last 90 overall.
• 41-13 in their last 54 home games.
• 4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 5-1 in their last 6 Monday games.
• 38-14 in their last 52 games against a left-handed starter.
• 37-14 in their last 51 Game 1s of a series.
• 43-17 in their last 60 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• 25-10 in their last 35 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 25-10 in their last 35 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 90-36 in their last 126 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 37-15 in their last 52 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 54-23 in their last 77 games on grass.
• 47-20 in their last 67 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 14-6 in their last 20 against American League West.
• 29-13 in their last 42 games following a loss.
• 55-25 in their last 80 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 35-16 in their last 51 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• 115-53 in their last 168 home games versus a team with a winning record.
• 0-4 in their last 4 against a team with a winning record.
• 0-5 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Seattle is in a tough spot here. The Yankees saw their three-game winning streak halted by a three-run home run in the 9th inning by the Kansas City Royals. Knowing how they have struggled in recent weeks, the best team in baseball should be fired up to get back in the win column.

Despite the loss, the Yankees scored 6 runs on Sunday and scored 27 runs in their last three games played. With an offense led by Aaron Judge, the Yankees are a tough team to slow down offensively. New York has hit well against left-handers while Gonzales has struggled, giving up 12 runs in his last three starts.

Seattle meanwhile, has struggled to score as of late, scoring only a total of 10 runs in their last four games played. They will have problems with a Yankees pitching staff that is one of the best in baseball this season. I don’t think that the Seattle offense can keep up.

Prediction: New York Yankees

Mariners vs Yankees Over/Under Predictions

The total has gone under in 41 out of the last 60 head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The under is also 21-7-3 in the last 31 meetings in New York.

Seattle Mariners over/under trends:

• Over is 6-1 in the Mariners’ last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 9-2 in the Mariners’ last 11 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 4-1 in the Mariners’ last 5 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 12-5 in the Mariners’ last 17 versus American League East.
• Over is 9-4-1 in the Mariners’ last 14 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 5-1 in the Mariners’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 5-1 in the Mariners’ last 6 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 8-2 in the Mariners’ last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-1 in the Mariners’ last 5 road games against a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-1 in the Mariners’ last 5 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Under is 4-1 in the Mariners’ last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 4-1 in the Mariners’ last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 20-6 in the Mariners’ last 26 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-3 in the Mariners’ last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

New York Yankees over/under trends:

• Over is 17-5 in the Yankees’ last 22 overall.
• Over is 8-1 in the Yankees’ last 9 home games.
• Over is 3-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 4 home games against a team with a winning record.
• Over is 12-2 in the Yankees’ last 14 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 6-1 in the Yankees’ last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 6-1 in the Yankees’ last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 9-2 in the Yankees’ last 11 versus a team with a winning record.
• Over is 4-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games versus a left-handed starter.
• Over is 4-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 home games against a left-handed starter.
• Over is 17-5 in the Yankees’ last 22 on grass.
• Over is 10-3 in the Yankees’ last 13 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 6-2 in the Yankees’ last 8 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 9-3 in the Yankees’ last 12 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 20-7-2 in the Yankees’ last 29 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Over is 17-8 in the Yankees’ last 25 Game 1s of a series.
• Under is 4-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 against the American League West.
• Under is 8-3-1 in the Yankees’ last 12 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 15-6 in the Yankees’ last 21 Monday games.
• Under is 34-14-3 in the Yankees’ last 51 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Seattle has allowed four or more runs in six out of their last 10 games played. Gonzalez is coming off a strong start but prior to that, he allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits in 11.2 innings pitched. Against the Yankees, his previous issues could show up on Monday night.

The Yankees have one of the most powerful lineups in the majors led by the home run leader Aaron Judge who has been red hot as of late. The Bronx Bombers have gone over the total in 15 out of their last 20 games played and in eight out of their last nine games played at home. New York has seen the total hit 9 or more runs seven times in their last 10 games played, including five times above 10 runs.

Give me these teams to hit the over, with the Yankees’ offense dictating this game.

Prediction: Over 9