Blake Daniels, August 15, 2022

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The New York Mets take on the Atlanta Braves in a crucial three-game division series beginning Monday at Truist Park.

New York is 75-40 on the season and they are currently the leaders in the NL East division. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games played and head to this series on a two-game winning streak. Meanwhile, defending World Series champions Atlanta is 70-46 on the year and they are just 5.5 games behind the Mets in the division standings. The Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 games played and have won their last six games.

The Mets are 35-21 on the road and 15-12 as underdogs this season while the Braves are 37-22 at home and 47-43 as betting favorites this year. The Mets have Atlanta’s number this season as they have won 8 out of their first 12 meetings of the campaign.

New York Mets

The Mets are coming off a dominant home stand and now begin a tough 10-game road trip. They have been good on the road this season and head to this series with six straight road wins. New York took two of three games against the Philadelphia Phillies the last time out and they have a 5.5 games lead in the NL East.

New York recently acquired Daniel Vogelbach from the Pittsburgh Pirates and he is delivering for his new team. Vogelbach has a .950 OPS this month and he has driven in five runs in his last five games played, while totaling 45 RBIs on the year. He has two home runs and 3 RBIs against Atlanta this season.

Carlos Carrasco will make his 23rd start for the Mets on Monday. Carrasco is having a great season with a record of 13-4 and an ERA of 3.76 plus a WHIP of 1.28 in 124.1 innings of work. He picked up the win in his last start, allowing only two runs on 6.2 innings pitched against the Cincinnati Reds.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves are on a roll right now with six consecutive victories. Atlanta has won its previous two series, sweeping both the Red Sox and Marlins. The Braves are just 5.5 games behind the Mets in the division standings. However, with the way New York is also playing, it looks like Atlanta will defend its title via the wild card.

Matt Olson has been the key player for Atlanta against the Mets. Olson has 10 RBIs and an OPS of .803 against their division rivals. The 28-year-old is having a very productive season with 24 home runs and 75 RBIs. In his last nine games played, Olson has 8 RBIs and 3 home runs.

Spencer Strider will open on top of the mound for the Braves. Strider will be making his 25th start and is 6-4 with an ERA of 3.11 and a WHIP of 1.05 in 89.2 innings pitched this season. He took the loss the last time out, conceding four runs in only 2.2 innings pitched against this same Mets team.

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves 8/15/22 Betting Prediction

The Mets are 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams. However, New York is 6-4 in their last 10 games played in Atlanta.

The Mets are:

• 21-6 in their last 27 overall.
• 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
• 8-0 in their last 8 Monday games.
• 7-0 in their last 7 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 7-0 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 4-0 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• 15-3 in their last 18 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 5-1 in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record.
• 5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 13-3 in their last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• 7-2 in their last 9 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 16-5 in their last 21 games following a win.
• 22-7 in their last 29 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 39-15 in their last 54 versus National League East.
• 49-23 in their last 72 games against a right-handed starter.
• 35-17 in their last 52 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 35-17 in their last 52 Game 1s of a series.
• 2-5 in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning record.

The Braves are:

• 47-19 in their last 66 games played overall.
• 49-24 in their last 73 home games.
• 47-19 in their last 66 games on grass.
• 36-15 in their last 51 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 45-20 in their last 65 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 29-13 in their last 42 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
• 4-0 in their last 4 games against the National League East.
• 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 5-1 in their last 6 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 5-1 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
• 5-1 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 4-1 in their last 5 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 4-1 in their last 5 Game 1s of a series.
• 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a right-handed starter.
• 4-1 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 17-5 in their last 22 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Carlos Carrasco has not only pitched well this season but he has also pitched well versus Atlanta. Carrasco has held the defending champions to only 3 runs in 13 total innings pitched.

Meanwhile, Atlanta rookie Strider has struggled as of late, allowing 11 total runs in his last 19 innings of work. Strider lasted only 2.2 innings against the Mets the last time out while conceding four runs. Overall, he has surrendered five runs in 7.1 innings against them this season.

Since the Break, the Mets are third in baseball with a team ERA of 2.90 while the Braves are 10 spots behind at 3.84. Ronald Acuna could miss this game as he got hurt last Saturday trying to steal a base. The Mets seem to be one step ahead of the Braves this season.

Prediction: New York Mets

Mets vs Braves Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in five out of the last six meetings between these two teams. However, the under is 4-2 in their last six meeting in Atlanta.

New York Mets over/under trends:

• Under is 5-1-1 in the Mets’ last 7 overall.
• Under is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 versus National League East.
• Under is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 against a team with a winning record.
• Under is 7-1 in the Mets’ last 8 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 7-1 in the Mets’ last 8 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 5-1-1 in the Mets’ last 7 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1-1 in the Mets’ last 7 games played on grass.
• Under is 4-1-1 in the Mets’ last 6 games following a win.
• Under is 3-1-1 in the Mets’ last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 3-1-1 in the Mets’ last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 3-1-1 in the Mets’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 6-1 in the Mets’ last 7 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 7-3-1 in the Mets’ last 11 Monday games.
• Over is 16-7 in the Mets’ last 23 Game 1s of a series.
• Over is 11-5-1 in the Mets’ last 17 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Atlanta Braves over/under trends:

• Under is 2-0-2 in the Braves’ last 4 games played overall.
• Under is 4-1 in the Braves’ last 5 home games.
• Under is 2-0-2 in the Braves’ last 4 games following a win.
• Under is 2-0-2 in the Braves’ last 4 on grass.
• Under is 2-0-3 in the Braves’ last 5 versus National League East.
• Under is 4-0 in the Braves’ last 4 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 2-0-3 in the Braves’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 5-1 in the Braves’ last 6 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Under is 4-1-1 in the Braves’ last 6 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1-2 in the Braves’ last 7 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in the Braves’ last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
• Under is 4-1 in the Braves’ last 5 home games.
• Under is 8-2 in the Braves’ last 10 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 11-4 in the Braves’ last 15 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 17-7 in the Braves’ last 24 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 3-0-1 in the Braves’ last 4 Game 1s of a series.
• Over is 5-0-1 in the Braves’ last 6 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
• Over is 4-0-3 in the Braves’ last 7 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Over is 5-1 in the Braves’ last 6 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 7-2-1 in the Braves’ last 10 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 18-7-2 in the Braves’ last 27 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

The pitching matchup in this game is between two good pitchers. However, with these two teams among the top scoring team in MLB, you have to believe that offense will prevail over defense.

The Mets are averaging 5.6 runs per game in their last 15 games played while the Braves are putting up 5.36 runs per game in their last 14 assignments. These teams have combined to score an average of 8.7 runs per game in their last 10 meetings and 9.33 runs per game in their most recent three head-to-head meetings. I like these teams to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 8