Blake Daniels, August 23, 2022

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The New York Mets and New York Yankees play Game 2 of their current set at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night.

The Yankees beat the Mets 4-2 in Game 1 on Monday with Aaron Judge hitting his 47th home run of the season against Max Scherzer and Andrew Benintendi delivering two RBIs.

Both New York teams are on top of their respective divisions with the Mets up three games on the Atlanta Braves in the National League East and the Yankees up 8 on the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East. The Mets are just 5-5 in their last 10 games played while the Yankees are 4-6 during the same span.

These teams have played three times this season with the Mets winning twice.

New York Mets

The Mets are one of the most profitable teams at the run line this season with a record of 68-55. The over is 62-53-8 in their season. The Mets are 5th highest-scoring team in the league at 4.8 runs per game and a solid .740 team OPS. The Mets pitching staff is sixth with an ERA of 3.59 with their bullpen also posting a 3.66 ERA.

Jeff McNeil has 49 RBIs and has scored 54 runs while posting a slash line of .321/.374/.465. Francisco Lindor has been outstanding this season with a 5.5 WAR on an OPS of .805, with 21 home runs and 84 RBIs.

Taijuan Walker will be making his 22nd start of the season. Walker has posted a record of 10-3 with an ERA of 3.36 in a total of 112.1 innings pitched. The 30-year-old pitched only two innings against the Braves last Tuesday, allowing zero runs on two hits before leaving the game with a back issue.

New York Yankees

The Yankees have struggled since the Break but have won back to back against the Toronto Blue Jays and the Mets. New York is 54-68 on the run line with the over going 58-60-4 on their season. They have the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.02 runs per game with an OPS of .755 which is third best overall. The pitching staff has a collective ERA of 3.35 and they also have a bullpen ERA of 3.01.

Aaron Judge is having a great season with 47 home runs and 103 RBIs while posting an OPS of 1.044. DJ LeMahieu has scored 71 runs and hit 21 home runs while recording an OPS of .790.

Frankie Montas will make his third start as a Yankee. Montas is just 4-10 with an ERA of 3.87 over 118.2 innings pitched this season. He is coming off a rough outing against the Toronto Blue Jays where he allowed six runs on eight hits.

Mets vs Yankees Betting Prediction

The Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 games played against the Yankees. The Mets are 2-4 in their last six road games at Yankee Stadium.

The Mets are:

• 21-8 in their last 29 overall.
• 13-6 in their last 19 road games.
• 21-8 in their last 29 games on grass.
• 20-8 in their last 28 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• 15-6 in their last 21 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 10-4 in their last 14 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 13-6 in their last 19 games against a team with a winning record.
• 7-0 in their last 7 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 7-0 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games.
• 4-1 in their last 5 road games versus a right-handed starter.
• 4-1 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 27-8 in their last 35 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 28-10 in their last 38 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 37-14 in their last 51 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 37-14 in their last 51 games following a loss.
• 53-26 in their last 79 games against a right-handed starter.
• 2-6 in their last 8 Tuesday games.
• 2-7 in their last 9 interleague games versus a team with a winning record.
• 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games.
• 0-5 in their last 5 interleague road games against a team with a winning record.
• 0-4 in their last 4 interleague road games against a right-handed starter.

The Yankees are:

• 5-14 in their last 19 overall.
• 41-17 in their last 58 home games.
• 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
• 8-2 in their last 10 interleague home games.
• 4-1 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 6-2 in their last 8 interleague home games versus a right-handed starter.
• 10-4 in their last 14 games against the National League East.
• 91-37 in their last 128 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 7-3 in their last 10 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 35-16 in their last 51 Tuesday games.
• 58-27 in their last 85 Game2s of a series.
• 45-22 in their last 67 games following a win.
• 5-11 in their last 16 games versus a right-handed starter.
• 3-7 in their last 10 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 6-15 in their last 21 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 5-14 in their last 19 games on grass.
• 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games against. a team with a winning record.
• 1-5 in their last 6 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
• 1-6 in their last 7 interleague games.
• 1-6 in their last 7 interleague games versus a right-handed starter.
• 0-4 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 0-5 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Taijuan Walker has been consistent all year and you could argue that he plays better when he’s on the road. Walker s 4-1 with an ERA of 3.49 at home but is 6-2 with an ERA of 3.27 when pitching away from home.

There’s no question that Frankie Montas is much better than what he’s showing right now. However, he is struggling since coming to New York, posting a 1-2 record with an ERA of 3.00 since becoming a Yankee. During that stretch, Montas has allowed a total of 14 runs on 18 hits in 14 innings.

You have to be relieved after watching the Yankees win back-to-back on Sunday and Monday. However, I still need to see them play more consistently before I can say that they are back on track. Meanwhile, the Mets have played solid during this period and they are a more consistent team than their rivals.

Prediction: New York Mets

Mets vs Yankees Over/Under Prediction

The over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams. The total has gone over in 15 out of their last 21 games played at Yankees Stadium.

New York Mets over/under trends:

• Under is 5-0-1 in the Mets’ last 6 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 7-1 in the Mets’ last 8 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 7-1 in the Mets’ last 8 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 5-1 in the Mets’ last 6 Tuesday games.
• Under is 15-5-2 in the Mets’ last 22 Game 2s of a series.
• Under is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 interleague games.
• Over is 6-1-2 in the Mets’ last 9 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 5-1 in the Mets’ last 6 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 8-2-1 in the Mets’ last 11 interleague road games against a right-handed starter.
• Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last 5 road games versus a right-handed starter.
• Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 6-2 in the Mets’ last 8 games following a loss.
• Over is 15-5-2 in the Mets’ last 22 interleague road games.
• Over is 6-2 in the Mets’ last 8 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 8-3-1 in the Mets’ last 12 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 5-2-1 in the Mets’ last 8 versus American League East.
• Over is 12-5-2 in the Mets’ last 19 interleague games against a team with a winning record.

New York Yankees over/under trends:

• Under is 4-0 in the Yankees’ last 4 overall.
• Under is 4-0 in the Yankees’ last 4 home games.
• Under is 5-0 in the Yankees’ last 5 Game 2s of a series.
• Under is 4-0 in the Yankees’ last 4 on grass.
• Under is 4-0 in the Yankees’ last 4 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-0 in the Yankees’ last 4 home games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-0 in the Yankees’ last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 4-0 in the Yankees’ last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 4-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 interleague games.
• Under is 4-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Under is 4-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 27-10-3 in the Yankees’ last 40 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 5-2 in the Yankees’ last 7 Tuesday games.
• Under is 34-14-3 in the Yankees’ last 51 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 37-18-3 in the Yankees’ last 58 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 33-16-2 in the Yankees’ last 51 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
• Over is 5-2-1 in the Yankees’ last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 12-4 in the Yankees’ last 16 games following a win.
• Over is 6-2 in the Yankees’ last 8 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 3-0-2 in the Yankees’ last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 4-1-2 in the Yankees’ last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

These teams have combined to score an average of 10.9 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings.

Walker is having a fine season but we’ve seen him fade in the second half of the season before. This time around, he’s allowed 16 earned runs in his last 20.2 innings pitched. He is also dealing with a back injury which could affect him here.

Meanwhile, the Yankees bullpen is having a great season. But they have also struggled since the Break just as the offense has. Injuries have also been piling up and the Yankees have lost the duo of King and Holmes which has been a big hit on the bullpen. Yankee Stadium also has hitter-friendly dimensions which the Mets can take advantage of.

Prediction: Over 8.5