With just five races until the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, the circuit now arrives into New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.
In other words, we’re getting into crunch-time for two sets of drivers: 1. The ones who are currently grinding it out trying to lock themselves up a spot in the playoffs. And 2. The top-dogs who are already in the playoffs, and now trying to find their best form to enter the NASCAR ‘postseason’.
For the race at New Hampshire on Sunday, Kyle Busch is the favorite to take home the win. It should also be noted that his brother Kurt Busch would lock up a playoff spot for himself last week after his Quaker State 400 victory at Kentucky Speedway.
According to the NASCAR betting sites, Kyle Busch’s favorite odds are set at +265. Following Busch, we have Martin Truex Jr. in second place at +425, followed by Kevin Harvick in third at +650. In the No. 4 position, we have Brad Keselowski at +850, and in fifth place we have a tie between Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin at +1000. In seventh comes Chase Elliott at +1400, followed by Clint Boyer in eighth with +1600 odds. Coming in at No. 9 we have Kurt Busch at +1800, and rounding out the top 10 for us is Ryan Blaney at +2000.
NUMBERS DON’T LIE
YOUR BEST BET
Out of all of the drivers previously mentioned, Kyle Busch (+265) and Martin Truex Jr. (+425) have been the most dominant at New Hampshire Speedway, and as a result, they’re your best bets for a victor wager. Literally every single race at New Hampshire, both Busch and Truex Jr. lead a load of laps and also are among the leaders when the checkered flag waves. My expectations 100% have them both in the top five, so I feel pretty confident one of them can land the victory when everything is all said and done.
We went over him a little before, but I have to say again that your best long shot pick in this race is Aric Almirola at +2800. Not only would he perform well in his first year at Loudon under new team Stewart Haas Racing, but he would also do well at another one-mile track this year at Phoenix. There, he would lead a total of 26 laps and would tally a fourth-place finish. Busch and Truex Jr. are the obvious choices for your winner, but Almirola is certainly a decent long shot that you can profit off of.
WHEN AND WHERE TO WATCH
The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway is Sunday, July 21 and the green flag is scheduled to wave at 3:00 PM ET. The race will be nationally televised and you can catch the broadcast on NBCSN with announcers Rick Allen, Jeff Burton, Steve Letarte, and Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Let’s go over the favorites to win the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and then view the rest of the field slated to be in Sunday’s action.
Kyle Busch has done pretty solid in last five races, placing in the top five in three of them — this would include a fifth-place finish at Michigan, a second tally at Sonoma, and he would finish in second at Kentucky. At Daytona, he would place himself in the top 15 with a 14th mark. At Chicago, he wouldn’t do the best, but it wouldn’t be considered horrible either with a 22nd place finish. But that’s not important here for Busch, that’s more of his history at New Hampshire Motor Speedway: Remember, in the past 11 races at the track, he’s finished on the podium a total of seven times, including two victories (he’s got three total) and four second-place finishes. He’s also led laps in 10 races in the past 13 at New Hampshire. And now you see why Kyle Busch is the favorite (deservingly so) to win the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
For the most part, Martin Truex Jr. has done solid in his past five races, but in the last two, there’s been a bit of a decline which could result in lacking momentum heading into New Hampshire. At the same time, this race could be used as a rebound. I would certainly keep your mind on that as you place your wager. He would do elite with three consecutive top 10 finishes, including a ninth-place finish at Chicago, a third-place tally at Michigan, and he would achieve a victory at Sonoma. He would drop a bit starting with Daytona, however, taking a 22nd place tally, and then he would finish 19th at Kentucky. Again, give that some consideration before you bet. At New Hampshire in particular, Truex Jr. has done his thing. He’s led at least 100 laps in four of the last five races at the track and would lead 83 in 2018 — more than any driver. He’s also calculated three top-five finishes in those five races as well. But you have to keep in mind that he’s never achieved a victory at New Hampshire. Still, a solid bet, for sure.
I’ve already mentioned earlier that Kevin Harvick comes along with risk in a bet, and when I look at his last five to mix in with his transition over to Ford, I have to pass on him altogether. He would do great at Michigan with a seventh-place tally and would do even better at Sonoma finishing sixth. Since then, however, there’s been a bit of a drop-off. He’d do okay at Chicago, putting himself in the top 15 placing in 14th. After that, he wouldn’t do that great at all, posting a 29th place finish at Daytona and then taking the No. 22 position at Kentucky. He’s got good history at New Hampshire but hasn’t been the best since his transition over to Ford. With no momentum coming in and the factoid about Ford, I see no value with Kevin Harvick at +650. Pass.
In his last five races, Brad Keselowski has some elite finishes in there, but that stretch is also riddled with inconsistency. His good performances would come with a sixth-place result at Michigan, and then a top-five tally at Chicago with him finishing fifth. The other races, on the other hand, haven’t gone so well. The next best finish is an 18th place tally at Sonoma, and following that, he would barely crack the top 20 with a placement of 20th at Kentucky. At Daytona, Keselowski would do absolutely dismal nearly finishing in dead last with him at the No. 39 position. Like Harvick, there’s zero value with Brad Keselowski placed at +850. Next.
Joey Logano is another one with some elite placements in his last five, but there’s also some inconsistency lingered in there. In three of those races, he would do great finishing in the top 10, and he would also place in the top five in two of them. Logano would also claim a victory, that would be the last of the stretch at Michigan. Up next, he would place No. 23 on the leaderboard at the racecourse of Sonoma. He’d rebound with a third-place finish at Chicago but would drop right back down in the next race finishing 25th at Daytona. Getting away from the restrictor plates heading into Kentucky Speedway, Logano would rebound yet again by taking a seventh-place finish, and that’s now where we stand. The inconsistency worries me with Joey Logano and a winning bet, so this is another one that I’m going to have to pass on.
Like Logano and Keselowski, Denny Hamlin is another one with elite finishes riddled with inconsistency. In Hamlin’s last five, he would place in the top five in two of the races — that would be a fifth-place finish at Sonoma, and he would also have another fifth-place tally at Kentucky. He wouldn’t do so bad at Michigan (11th) and Chicago (15th), placing in the top 15 in both. In the other race, the annual Fourth of July race held at Daytona International Speedway, that would be his most dismal finish in 26th. With that being a restrictor plate race, we may have to give him a pass, and if you do, the other results aren’t that bad. Still, competing with the likes of Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch, I’m going to have to pass on Denny Hamlin as well. As a matter of fact, let’s end the list here. Nobody is coming close to Busch and Truex Jr. in the numbers — both have solid momentum doing great in their last five, and both have dominant history at New Hampshire as well. Two facets that no other driver is competing with, and it’s not even close. Busch or Truex Jr., take your pick.
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