Blake Daniels, July 25, 2022

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The Washington Nationals travel to Dodger Stadium on Monday to open a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Washington is 32-65 on the season and they are at the bottom of the NL East team standings, a far 27.65 games behind the division leaders New York Mets. The Nationals are just 2-8 in their last 10 games played although they are coming off a 4-3 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday to avoid getting swept.

Los Angeles is 64-30 on the year and they are on top of the National League West division standings, 11.5 games ahead of the second-place San Diego Padres. The Dodgers have won 8 in a row and are 9-1 in their last 10 games played. Los Angeles swept the Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants in their last two series played.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals are one of the worst teams in MLB this season but they have been playing like the worst of all teams as of late. Washington dropped 15 out of their last 17 games before the All-Star break and opened the second half with a pair of losses before finally picking up a win last Sunday. The Nationals are also dealing with rumors surrounding superstar Juan Soto who recently rejected a $440 million deal from the team.

Washington’s offense is 13th in batting average at .246. Josh Bell leads the team with 106 hits while driving in 50 runs. Soto leads the team with 20 home runs. Meanwhile, second baseman Cesar Hernandez also has 91 hits for the team.

Paolo Espino will open on top of the mound for the Nationals. Espino gave up three earned runs on six hits with five strikeouts against the defending champions Atlanta Braves the last time out. Espino has allowed four runs in three out of his last four starts. He has posted an ERA of 4.88 in 31.1 innings since joining the rotation last month.

Los Angeles Dodgers

After a solid 45-28 start, the Dodgers have improved even further with only two losses since June 28th. Los Angeles heads to this series with eight straight wins and victories in 9 out of their last 10 contests. The Dodgers are coming off a four-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants and have a double-digit division lead.

The Dodgers are 4th in batting average at .257. They are led by Freddie Freeman who is hitting at a .325 clip while producing 15 home runs. Trea Turner has been red hot as well with his .304 batting average, 69 RBIs, and 15 homers.

Los Angeles will open with Tony Gonsolin who is coming off his first rough start of the year. Gonsolin allowed five runs on seven hits in five innings against St. Louis the last time out. For the season, however, he is 11-0 with an ERA of 2.02 and a WHIP of 0.84. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Gonsolin’s last four starts. He has 86 strikeouts and 24 walks in a total of 93.2 innings pitched this season.

Nationals vs Dodgers Prediction

The Nationals are 16-35 in their last 51 meetings against the Dodgers. Washington is also 16-36 in their last 52 games played at Dodger Stadium.

The Nationals are:

• 25-58 in their last 83 games played overall.
• 28-59 in their last 87 road games.
• 17-36 in their last 53 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 16-35 in their last 51 Game 1s of a series.
• 21-46 in their last 67 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 21-47 in their last 68 games versus a right-handed starter.
• 25-58 in their last 83 games on grass.
• 21-49 in their last 70 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 15-37 in their last 52 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• 14-46 in their last 60 versus a team with a winning record.
• 1-4 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 1-5 in their last 6 Monday games.
• 1-7 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 1-8 in their last 9 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 0-4 in their last 4 road games opposite a right-handed starter.
• 3-15 in their last 18 games against the National League.
• 13-25 in their last 38 road games against the National League.
• 20-50 in their last 70 games as betting underdogs against the National League.
• 25-57 in their last 82 games overall as betting underdogs.

The Dodgers are:

• 43-18 in their last 61 games played overall.
• 52-15 in their last 67 home games.
• 50-11 in their last 61 games versus a team with a winning % below .400.
• 40-11 in their last 51 home games against a right-handed starter.
• 43-12 in their last 55 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 44-13 in their last 57 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 39-12 in their last 51 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 67-26 in their last 93 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 42-17 in their last 59 games opposite a right-handed starter.
• 36-15 in their last 51 Game 1s of a series.
• 43-18 in their last 61 games on grass.
• 14-6 in their last 20 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 9-4 in their last 13 Monday games.
• 44-21 in their last 65 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 73-35 in their last 108 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 6-0 in their last six games against the National League.
• 29-10 in their last 39 home games against the National League.
• 52-25 in their last 80 games as betting favorites against the National League.
• 63-29 in their last 92 games as betting favorites this season.

In as much as the plus money on the Nationals are tantalizing, I just don’t see an upset happening here. These are two teams who are on opposite poles and are trending in different directions. The Nationals have won only thrice in their last 20 games played while the Dodgers have dropped just two games this month and have won their last 10 games played at Dodger Stadium.

Los Angeles is also starting NL Cy Young contender Tony Gonsolin who has given up two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his starts this season. Gonsolin will be matched up against Espino who has conceded four runs in three out of his last four starts.

Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers have scored an average of 6.0 runs per game in three games played. Meanwhile, the Nationals are putting up just 1.5 runs per game in two games played since the break.

Again, I just don’t see an upset here. I am forced to take the Dodgers at a big price of -305. But if you want to take a bigger risk, go with the Dodgers at the run line at a lower -145 price.

Prediction: LA Dodgers

Nationals vs Dodgers MLB Odds

The total has gone under in five out of the last eight head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The under is also 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Los Angeles.

Washington Nationals over/under trends:

• Over is 4-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 overall.
• Over is 4-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 Game 1s of a series.
• Over is 4-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 on grass.
• Over is 12-4 in the Nationals’ last 16 versus the National League West.
• Over is 21-14-3 in the Nationals’ last 38 road games against the National League.
• Over is 43-37-4 in the Nationals’ last 84 games played against the National League
• Over is 5-2 in the Nationals’ last 7 Monday games.
• Under is 5-2 in the Nationals’ last 7 road games.
• Under is 7-3 in the Nationals’ last 10 road games against a right-handed starter.
• Under is 7-0 in the Nationals’ last 7 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Under is 4-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 4-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Under is 4-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 7-2 in the Nationals’ last 9 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Los Angeles Dodgers over/under trends:

• Under is 15-7-3 in the Dodgers’ last 25 overall.
• Under is 7-2-2 in the Dodgers’ last 11 home games.
• Under is 15-7-3 in the Dodgers’ last 25 on grass.
• Under is 3-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 4 against the National League East.
• Under is 4-0 in the Dodgers’ last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 3-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 4 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 11-2-3 in the Dodgers’ last 16 home games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 6-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 9 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 15-5-2 in the Dodgers’ last 22 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 5-2-2 in the Dodgers’ last 9 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 19-8-3 in the Dodgers’ last 30 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 33-15-4 in the Dodgers’ last 52 Game 1s of a series.
• Under is 40-33-2 in the Dodgers’ last 75 games against the National League.
• Over is 8-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games versus a team with a winning % below .400.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 Monday games.
• Over is 6-2 in the Dodgers’ last 8 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

Gray has posted an ERA of 3.54 in 40.2 innings pitched in his last seven starts while Gonsolin has an ERA of 2.53 in 42.2 innings of work in his last seven starts. The Nationals rank 11th in baseball in ERA after 8 innings at 3.51 while the Dodgers are one rank ahead of them at 10th with their 3.48 ERA.

Gray is also pitching against the team where he made his MLB debut so he should have that extra motivation in him. These two teams have combined to score an average of 8.0 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 8.33 runs per game in their most recent three encounters.

Of course, there’s always a chance that the Dodgers’ explosive bats can beat this total by themselves but given the other circumstances, I’ll take these teams to hit the under on Monday night.

Prediction: Under 8.5