The New Orleans Saints look to get back on track as they travel to Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions on October 4, 2020.
New Orleans heads to this game with a two-game losing streak. The Saints lost to the Green Bay Packers 37-30 on Sunday in the second consecutive game where they conceded more than 30 points. The New Orleans offense has done its share but the defense has been sub-par so far after three games. Detroit defeated the Arizona Cardinals 26-23 to pick up their first win of the year. The Lions blew double-digit leads and lost to the Chicago Bears and Packers. Last Sunday, they kept their poise and held off the Cardinals to claim a solid road win.
These teams last met in 2017 with the Saints emerging victorious via a 52-38 score. Prior to that, the Lions won three straight games over New Orleans.
The Saints dropped to 1-2 on the season after losing to the Green Bay Packers last Sunday. Drew Brees threw for 288 yards with three touchdowns in the loss and the 41-year old has tallied a total of 760 passing yards, six touchdowns, and one interception this season. Alvin Kamara rushed for 58 yards against the Packers and he leads the team with 153 rushing yards and 258 receiving yards.
The Saints are without no. 1 receiver Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. But more than Thomas’ absence, it has been the New Orleans defense that has let them down. The Saints rank 20th against the pass and are conceding 31.3 points per game this season. Malcolm Jenkins leads the team with 22 tackles while Demario Davis has a total of 21 including 16 solo tackles. The Saints rank 9th in scoring at 29.3 points per game this year.
The Lions will try to build off their first win of the season. Detroit defeated Arizona 26-23 in their last assignment and did so as 4.5 underdogs. Matthew Stafford played his best game of the season with 270 passing yards and two touchdowns. For the season, Stafford has amassed 811 passing yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. Veteran Adrian Peterson has been impressive so far with 209 total rushing yards and 4.6 yards per carry.
Kenny Golladay returned from injury last week and he was key to their victory. Golladay caught six passes for 67 yards with one score. T.J. Hockenson leads the Lions with 13 catches for 171 receiving yards with one score. Detroit’s defense has struggled too but last week, they intercepted Kyler Murray three times. Tracy Walker leads the team with 23 tackles including 19 solo. The Detroit defense is allowing opponents to score an average of 30.3 points per game this season. They rank 23rd in the league in scoring at 23.3 points per game.
New Orleans is 13-5 SU in their last 18 games played. The Saints are 12-0 in their last dozen October games. Detroit is 1-11 SU in their last 12 games played. The Lions are 0-5 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Lions are 3-1 SU in their last four meetings against the Saints. Detroit is also 7-3 SU in their last 10 home games against New Orleans.
Drew Brees has averaged 4.6 yards in average depth of target and is the only QB to average fewer than six yards per target. It’s still early but the signs point to him not having the ability to thrown downfield this season. However, that won’t be an issue against a Lions defense that is conceding 172.3 rushing yards per game. Expect Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray to take advantage of this.
Kenny Golladay’s return in week 3 proved to be a boost for Mathew Stafford. The star wide receiver led the team with six catches for 67 yards with one touchdown haul. With the Saints’ rush defense allowing the seventh-fewest yards on the ground, look for Stafford to throw the ball more often here.
These teams don’t play much defense so it will be up to their offenses to pull off the win here. When you talk about offense, the Saints still have a better arsenal. I think that Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara do just enough to pick up a solid road win at Ford Field.
Prediction: New Orleans Saints -195
The Saints are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games played. New Orleans is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games played against the NFC North division. Detroit is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games played. The Lions are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against the AFC, and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games played against the NFC South. Head to head, the Lions are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Saints.
I like the Saints to win this game but the Lions have been a competitive team so far this season. New Orleans’ pass defense isn’t that good and that should allow Stafford and a healthy Kenny Golladay to have a good game. The Saints have a more potent offense led by Brees and Kamara but they are not unbeatable. This game should be close and could be decided by a field goal so I’ll take the plus points.
Prediction: Lions +4
The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by the Saints. The over is also 4-1 in New Orleans’ last five games played against the NFC. The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by the Lions. Detroit has seen the total go over in six out of their last nine games played in October. Head to head, the total has gone over in six out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams, including three out of the last four.
These are two teams that have struggled on the defensive end to start the season. New Orleans is conceding 31.6 points per game while Detroit is allowing 30.7 points per contest. On offense, these two teams have plenty of playmakers so this should be a high-scoring contest. These teams have combined to average 55.4 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 64.33 points per game in their last three head to head showdowns. The Saints have not scored fewer than 24 points per game while the Lions have not conceded fewer than 23 points this season. I like these teams to hit the over.
Prediction: Over 54.5
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