Blake Daniels, March 3, 2023

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The New York Knicks travel to Florida to take on the Miami Heat at the American Airlines Arena on Friday night.

New York is 37-27 SU on the season and they are in 5th place in the Eastern Conference team standings. The Knicks are just 1.5 games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 4th seed and home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs. New York is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games played.

Miami is 33-30 SU on the year and they are 7th in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Heat are also just 1.5 games behind the 6th-seeded Brooklyn Nets and outright entry into the playoffs. Miami is however struggling right now as they have lost six out of their last 10 games played.

New York Knicks

New York is coming off a 142-118 victory over the Brooklyn Nets. The win was the Knicks’ 7th consecutive victory and they have not lost a game since acquiring Josh Hart from the Portland Trail Blazers at the trade deadline.

Jalen Brunson led the Knicks with 39 points including 30 in the first half. New York shot 80% from the field and scored 47 points in the first quarter. They made 10 out of their first 13 shots including 6 of 7 from three-point distance and immediately built a double-digit lead halfway through the first quarter.

The Knicks rank 22nd in three-point shooting at 35.1% this season. New York is also just 22nd in free throw shooting at 76.9% from the foul line. They are scoring an average of 115.1 points per game while shooting at a 46.5% clip.

Miami Heat

The Heat head to Friday’s game after dropping a disappointing 119-96 home contest against a Philadelphia 76ers team that played without its best player in Joel Embiid. Philadelphia outscored Miami 37-15 in the second quarter, the worst quarter played by the Heat this season. They have lost five out of their last 6 games played.

Bam Adebayo led the way and scored 20 points for the Heat who beat the Sixers last Monday but were blown out in their rematch. Heat superstar Jimmy Butler scored 16 points before leaving during the 4th quarter with right knee soreness.

Miami is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA at 107.8 points per game this season. They are also next to last in field goal shooting percentage at 45% from the floor this season. But the Heat own the second-best scoring defense in the NBA this season at only 108.6 points per game allowed while allowing foes to shoot at a 47.6% clip.

Knicks vs Heat SU Prediction

The Knicks are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the Heat. New York is also 1-3 SU in their last 4 games played in Miami.

New York Knicks SU trends:

• The Knicks are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games played.
• The Knicks are 18-12 SU in their last 30 games played on the road.
• The Knicks are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played in March.
• The Knicks are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Knicks are 13-7 SU in their last 20 road games against the Eastern Conference.

Miami Heat SU trends:

• The Heat are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Heat are 19-11 SU in their last 30 games played at home.
• The Heat are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games played in March.
• The Heat are 16-20 in their last 36 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Heat are 10-8 SU in their last 18 home games against the Eastern Conference.

The Knicks have won seven straight games since acquiring Josh Hart at the trade deadline. Hart had 4 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals off the bench during their last win against the Brooklyn Nets. He is averaging 12.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.3 steals per game in seven games played with the Knicks.

Hart’s college teammate, Jalen Brunson – whom the Knicks acquired in free agency, scored a game-high 39, including 30 in the first half. Brunson shot 15-18 from the field, including 5-6 from behind the three-point arc while also grabbing five rebounds and issuing six assists. He is averaging 23.8 points and 6.2 assists per game, both career highs. Brunson is making 41.0% of his 3-point attempts and 83.6% from the foul line.

Miami has lost five out of its last six games played, including a 119-96 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers who were without Joel Embiid. The Heat’s leading scorer Jimmy Butler left the game with a sore right knee while Kyle Lowry has missed 10 straight games with a knee injury.

The Heat have a 19-11 home record, including 8-2 in their last 10 games played in Miami. However, the Knicks have the second-best road record in the league, tied with the Milwaukee Bucks, at 18-12.

In the last two weeks, Miami has added two players to its lineup – Kevin Love and Cody Zeller. The Heat are looking forward to having the two contribute significantly, especially Love whose three-point shooting and passing ability would be a big help for the Heat.

Miami enters Friday’s game in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, but they are just 3.5 games behind the 5th-place Knicks. The Heat have been trending in the wrong direction while the Knicks are on a roll. Butler is questionable for this game with knee soreness and even if he plays, he won’t be 100% without Butler and Lowry, the Miami offense is a different animal.

Give me the Knicks to continue their winning ways in Miami.

Prediction: New York Knicks

Knicks vs Heat ATS Prediction

The Knicks are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Heat. New York is 2-1 ATS in their last three games played in Miami.

New York Knicks ATS trends:

• The Knicks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Knicks are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 road games.
• The Knicks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The Knicks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Knicks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Knicks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Knicks are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight-up win.
• The Knicks are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The Knicks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Miami Heat ATS trends:

• The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Heat are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.
• The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
• The Heat are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss.
• The Heat are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 es games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Friday games.

The Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season right now. The Heat’s offense has looked terrible this year and they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played, including 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home outings. Either Butler rests or he plays hurt, that isn’t going to help the Heat’s cause.

Prediction: Knicks -2.5

Knicks vs Heat Over/Under Prediction

The over is 5-4-1 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The under is 1-2-1 in the last four games played in Miami.

New York Knicks over/under trends:

• The over is 4-0 in the Knicks’ last 4 road games versus a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The over is 7-1-1 in the Knicks’ last 9 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Knicks’ last 6 Friday games.
• The over is 7-2-1 in the Knicks’ last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The under is 34-16-1 in the Knicks’ last 51 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Knicks’ last 5 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.

Miami Heat over/under trends:

• The under is 7-2 in the Heat’s last 9 home games.
• The under is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• The under is 4-1 in the Heat’s last 5 Friday games.
• The under is 18-8 in the Heat’s last 26 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The under is 13-6-1 in the Heat’s last 20 versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The over is 39-19 in the Heat’s last 58 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The over is 6-1 in the Heat’s last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.

The Knicks and Heat rank 27th and 28th in adjusted tempo rating and neither like to push the ball so there won’t be many transition points here. With both teams preferring to play the half-court offense, there won’t be too many shot attempts here.

Both defenses are also in the Top 13 with Miami ranked 5th best in the entire NBA so that adds to the case for the under. The Heat have been struggling with putting up points this season. They rank last in scoring and have the third-lowest three-point shooting average in the league.

These teams have combined to score an average of 211.7 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 213.0 points per game in their most recent three encounters.

This should be a low-paced, low-scoring game with both defenses taking center stage.

Prediction: Under 215.5