The AFC South was an all-out brawl between three teams last season, with each the Houston Texans (11-5), Indianapolis Colts (10-6) and Tennessee Titans (9-7) finishing with winning records. As you see, it would be the Texans who would claim victory of the division, and they would do so for the third time in four years.
Despite that, however, the Indianapolis Colts — the second-place team of the AFC South last season — are the favorites to take the 2019 division title.
SIDE NOTE: Wow, the Houston Texans got ZERO respect from the odds-makers.
Laid out over at the web-based sportsbook Bovada, the Indianapolis Colts sit as the favorites with an EVEN figure. Afterwards, we have the Houston Texans in the second spot at +275, the Jacksonville Jaguars come in third place at +375, and the Tennessee Titans round out the AFC South for us in fourth with +650 odds.
Let’s go over each team of the Colts, Texans, Jaguars, and Titans in depth, their odds, and also their chances of winning the 2019 AFC South division title.
Read my latest division previews of the AFC East and AFC North, and stay tuned for the AFC West. You can also expect NFC East, NFC North, NFC South and NFC West analysis and predictions from me as well.
The Indianapolis Colts certainly had a successful season in 2018 that led to both a 10-win campaign and a postseason appearance. Unfortunately for the Colts, their spot in the playoffs would result in an ultimate roadblock in the Kansas City Chiefs — they would lose, 31-13, in the AFC Divisional Round.
2018 would get off to a slow start for the Colts, limping out to a 1-5 record and most analysts and fans had gone ahead and crossed Indianapolis off of the list as far as playoff teams. In their defense, a lot of those losses would be by very close margins, and it would show down the stretch. After completely thrashing the Buffalo Bills by a score of 37-5 in Week 7, the Colts would then roll from there, going 9-1 to end the season to take the No. 2 spot in the AFC South that would see them in the playoffs.
To put a band-aid on the Colts’ 1-5 start in 2018, a lot of it had to do with injury, particularly with running back Marlin Mack having just 22 carries in two games in the first six weeks of the season. Also, their star quarterback Andrew Luck was also quite rusty after missing the entire 2017 season due to a shoulder injury. After he shook it off, Luck was on point from there.
With both Luck and Mack 100% healthy entering 2019, you have to think this year will get off to a quick start, unlike last season, possibly turning into a 12 or 13-win campaign for Indianapolis. (Maybe even 14 if things really go there way)
That’s especially true when you look at the offseason that they had, they would bring in some talent that will be very valuable for a division title run. First, they would go out into the free-agent market and pick up Devin Funchess from the Carolina Panthers, placing him beside the nicely-skilled T.Y. Hilton. After he spent eight seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs, the Colts would also pick up defensive end Justin Houston, a four-time Pro Bowler. In 2018, Indianapolis’ defense would tally 38 sacks, placing them 19th in the NFL rankings. As far as Houston is concerned, he would rack up nine sacks himself last season, so I’m sure you see how massively better their defensive line is going to be, especially in the pass rush.
With the moves that they made and health back in their grasp, you have to place the Indianapolis Colts as the favorite to win the 2019 AFC North championship. They have the potential to be a very dominant team this season, even possibly collecting a total of 12, 13, maybe even 14 victories. Chalk it up, folks. They’re the team to beat in the division.
The Houston Texans are licking their chomps to get into the 2019 season, and for good reason: Finishing 11-5 and winning the AFC South last year, that would go down as the second-best regular season showing in franchise history.
Though not as bad as the Indianapolis Colts, the Texans would also limp out to a less-than-stellar start at 0-3. Also like Indianapolis, they would be close defeats as well, with all three being by a combined 15 points. After Week 3, however, the H-Town would then get things crackin’, winning 11 out of the remaining 13 games on their schedule. Not only would this stretch of glory achieve the AFC South for the Texans, but it would be their fifth division title in the past eight years — very impressive in a league like the NFL.
Yet another similarity to the Indianapolis Colts, the Houston Texas also had to fare with their quarterback Deshaun Watson, who was coming off a torn ACL in the 2017 season. Needless to say, there were a ton of concerns about Watson and how much he could succeed after that injury. Well, Watson didn’t care what the critics had to say and played like there wasn’t an injury at all. In 2018, he’d put up a mesmerizing stat line of 4,165 yards, 26 touchdowns and a 103.1 QB rating — and he would do this playing all 16 games of the regular season. That’s how you make a comeback: Talent and durability.
Houston would take hits in the form of losing cornerback Kareem Jackson and safety Tyrann Mathieu in free agency, but they would recover with signings of their own. They would grab both safety Tashaun Gipson from the Jacksonville Jaguars and cornerback Bradley Roby from the Denver Broncos. All four of those moves needed to happen too, because the Texans struggled at a pretty good pace last season in pass defense — they would rank No. 27 in yards allowed-per-game. You can expect a little improvement there.
The Houston Texans will still be a good football team in 2019, that’s for sure. They’ll have a winning record and will be competing with the Colts all season long for the division crown, but with the circumstances surrounding Indianapolis and them being back to full-health, you have to place them just slightly over Houston. As incredibly tempted as I am to pick the Houston Texans to win the AFC South, something is telling me that Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts will be a force this season.
2017 was a magical season for the Jacksonville Jaguars. They would make the playoffs for the first time since 2007 and would make the AFC Championship game for the first time since 1999.
And then 2018 came, and along with it came a common quote: “The same ol’ Jacksonville Jaguars” — this would be after a 5-11 finish after that said magical run. But the jokes wouldn’t come until later in the season. When things got started, they would jump out to a flashy 3-1 start, but they would ultimately collapse, losing 10 of their last 12 games — just terrible.
A large part of why the Jacksonville Jaguars struggled so massively last season was because of the absence of their star running back Leonard Fournette. After punching them into the postseason in 2017, injuries and a suspension would reduce Fournette’s action substantially. In his rookie year, he would produce a total of 1,040 yards and knock-in nine touchdowns, doing this over 13 games. Last season, however, he would only see eight games with a tally of 439 yards and five touchdowns.
On top of that, the quarterback was absolutely dismal, forcing the Jaguars to have a battle between Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler for the starting position. This would go on for the majority of the season. There wasn’t any luck that came from it either, both would combine for just 15 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. It was thoroughbred poor play at the quarterback position for Jacksonville the entire 2018 campaign.
But there was big improvement made at that position for the Jacksonville Jaguars over the offseason, and it came in the form of signing Nick Foles in free agency from the Philadelphia Eagles.
If you don’t remember, Foles would lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl championship in 2017 after starter Carson Wentz was out due to injury. When Wentz was hurt again in 2018, it was up to Foles to carry Philadelphia another, and he would have another delivery of success getting the Eagles to the postseason. Nice-sized splash by the Jaguars
Now with Foles in Jacksonville, we now get to see if he is the real deal, or if he was just a product of Philadelphia’s system and the talent on that team. That question mark alone is why you can’t bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars over either the Indianapolis Colts or Houston Texans to win the AFC South — way too much uncertainty at the quarterback position.
For the Tennessee Titans, the 2018 season was one that the franchise has been used to for years now, and that’s a season full of both winning and losing streaks that ultimately sees them with a record around .500 — they would finish 9-7 last year, their straight season with that record.
The Titans may be consistent with their records, but their play last year was no where near that, and sometimes it was drastically inconsistent. For example: In Week 10, they would hold the New England Patriots to just 10 points, doing a superb job to get a 34-10 blowout victory. The very next week, Tennessee would then turn around and get smashed in the mouth themselves by the Indianapolis Colts, 38-10. How on earth are you a playoff team with performances like that? You’re not.
The Titans’ offensive system was out of wack throughout the season as well, having a hard time deciding how much of a focal point they wanted their running game to be, and also who was going to be their RB1 and RB2. The original plan was for former Heisman Trophy-winning running back Derrick Henry to carry the load for Tennessee, while Dion Lewis would be his back-up to provide a change of pace from Henry’s bruising style — Lewis is more of the speedy type.
Unfortunately for the Titans, Henry’s effectiveness didn’t fully kick in until the last four games of the season. Over that span, he would rush for a total of 585 yards and also punch in seven touchdowns. The quarterback situation didn’t help either with Marcus Mariota having a season full of injuries and inconsistency throughout.
Over the offseason, Tennessee would make some moves for improvement, including picking up guard Rodger Saffold from the Los Angeles Rams in free agency — a move that will surely boost up the offensive line, both in protecting the quarterback and helping out a running game that has the potential to be something great with Henry at the helm. They would also grab wide receiver Adam Humphries, who will be great in the slot game for Mariota and his check-down passes.
If they can keep Derrick Henry healthy and consistent, the Tennessee Titans certainly have a potent resource for their use. With Henry, they’ll be able to both punish opposing defenses and control the pace of the game. He’ll certainly make them a good team with his workload, but I personally wouldn’t ride with the Tennessee Titans to win this year’s AFC South — one of the toughest divisions in football in the 2019 season. They’ll put up a good season for a last-place team, I’ll give them that.
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