It probably won’t come as a shocker, but the Kansas City Chiefs are the top-dogs to win the AFC West in 2019 — they’re currently placed as a -155 favorite. And why wouldn’t they be? They’ve already won three straight division titles, and are going for a fourth consecutive this season.
Though the Chiefs would win the AFC West last season, they would battle it out with the Los Angeles Chargers in order to make it happen — they would be tied in the standings with the exact same record of 12-4, with Kansas City coming out on top due to having the better record in the division. After the Chiefs’ favorite -155 odds comes Los Angeles at +195, followed by the Oakland Raiders in third place at a hefty and distant +1100. Denver, with large odds themselves, rounds out the AFC West at +1200. As you see, you can expect a two-horse race.
Let’s go over each team of the Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos more in depth, and also review their chances of winning the 2019 AFC West.
You can also read my analysis and predictions on each the AFC East, AFC North and the AFC South, and stay tuned for my call on the NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, and NFC West as well.
You’ll never make much money placing a bet on a favorite, unless of course, you’ve placed an enormous amount on that team. In other words, there isn’t much value with the Kansas City Chiefs sitting at -155, but at the same time, is there value from anyone else in this division with the Chiefs being led by MVP Patrick Mahomes? To answer that, you also have to ask the question: Is Kansas City an actual heavy favorite to take the division like what’s in most people’s heads? Me personally, I’m not too certain about that.
As far as their quarterback Patrick Mahomes, I’m of course all in on him. Mahomes enters the 2019 campaign fresh off of a season that saw him throw for a total of 50 touchdowns, this en route to the Most Valuable Player award. That 50 mark was just five short of tying Peyton Manning’s single-season record (2013) of 55. Mahomes is just the third quarterback in NFL history to throw for 50 touchdowns — Manning and Tom Brady are the other two. (Brady threw for 50 in 2007) You can’t even think about rejecting a guy when he’s among that company.
One of the biggest concerns for the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs is their running game. After Kareem Hunt was suspended and they decided to release him, they’ve haven’t been producing as much as they had hoped. After Hunt was suspended, Damien Williams would be the starter for the Chiefs and would put up 49 yards, 51 yards and 103 yards in his three starts. This year, Kansas City will be forced to use Williams again as their No. 1 RB, but as you see, the productivity isn’t there. Needless to say, the running attack will certainly be an issue for the Chiefs this season. (Thank God for Mahomes, right?)
There is a little potential there with Williams though, Kansas City just needs to break his inconsistency. In the postseason, Williams would tally a total of 129 yards against the Indianapolis Colts, but against the New England Patriots, he had a lackluster 30 yards that would help result in a KC loss. Expect a lot of ups and downs this year with Williams being the top running back.
Another issue to keep an eye on with the Kansas City Chiefs is the status of their wide receiver Tyreek Hill, we don’t even know if he’s going to be suspended or not this season with training camp just a week away. If you’re not aware, Hill is dealing with accusations of child abuse and domestic violence claims, and if you know the history of the NFL, you know that he’s facing a suspension of multiple games ‘just because’.
Now in my opinion after hearing the recording, I feel that Tyreek Hill should be allowed to play with no suspension at all. I heard his ex-fiancee named Crystal Espinal, who first off, obviously had a motivation by recording the conversation, and it’s obvious that Hill was getting irritated with some of the stuff that she was saying. Maybe because it wasn’t factual?
I have no choice but to stand with Hill until I see more evidence. There’s none whatsoever that he hit either her or their child, and even investigators are saying that the broken arm suffered by the child that Espinal was grilling Hill about was accidental, and were quick to report that as well. From everything I’m seeing, it’s looking like a vengeful ex-girlfriend has declared war on Tyreek Hill and that’s it, and if I’m Roger Goodell, I’m letting him play. But still, for your bet, you obviously need to keep an eye on this story, because at this point, there’s no telling what could happen.
On top of all of that, you also have to look at the state of the Chiefs defense. Last season, they would allow the second-most yards in the league, and with no major improvements, Kansas City will be forced to win in shootouts yet again in 2019. And then you also have the fact that the Chiefs have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL — it’s ranked No. 5 to be exact.
Yeah, I’d go ahead and make the Kansas City Chiefs the favorite to win the division as well, you have to at this point, but I don’t agree that it should be by the margin that the odds-makers have, I would have it much closer. With all of the circumstances surrounding Kansas City and a pretty good Los Angeles Chargers to compete against to win the division, a fourth consecutive division title isn’t such a sure thing.
With that being said, you may want to take advantage of the Los Angeles Chargers and their valuable +195 odds. In the postseason last year, they would take a 41-28 loss to the New England Patriots, but they would gain experience that could be key in the division race this season.
The Chargers will be carrying both success and momentum into the new campaign, especially considering they would steal wins at both Seattle and Kansas City during the 2018 regular season. One more win than the Chiefs last year and Los Angeles would be your defending AFC West Champions right now. Sounds like someone could have a chip on their shoulder this season, and also with experience and knowledge on how to win more to take the division. And all of this led by a veteran quarterback in Philip Rivers — someone who is extremely overdue for a Super Bowl ring.
Head coach Anthony Lynn will once again have his tandem of Rivers at quarterback and Melvin Gordon holding things down as the RB1. At wide receiver, it’ll be the usual suspect there with Keenan Allen being Rivers’ favorite target, and Mike Williams will also do great for the receiving corps. After a breakout rookie year last season, he’ll be at an even more expanded role in 2019. But here’s the problem for the Chargers: They lack a bit in depth. The offense has enough potency to hide it, but keep an eye on that as the season goes along.
Another positive that Los Angeles has going for them is their strength of schedule, it’s ranked in the middle of the league and has a combined opponents record of 127-126-3 in 2018. In their campaign, they’ll have contests where the victory can easily be grasped against opponents such as the Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. With all of the uncertainties surrounding the Kansas City Chiefs, the load of positives that are attached to the Los Angeles Chargers, and how profitable L.A.’s +195 odds are, you have to ride with the Chargers to win this year’s AFC West — this despite having the Kansas City Chiefs as my slight favorite, and that’s solely based off of respect for winning three straight division titles.
Go ahead and place your bet now, because I look for that +1100 to come down to the number of people who will make a wager on that value — it’s a bit high for a team led by Jon Gruden, and on top of that, they just acquired Antonio Brown. But that’s not the only thing of interest for the Raiders this season: While awaiting their move to Las Vegas in 2020, Oakland will be playing in the crumbling Alameda County Coliseum and Mount Davis — a stadium that’s falling apart and a pissed off fan base, this should go well.
Especially considering the Raiders could produce some success this year. I’ve already mentioned that they acquired Antonio Brown over the offseason, debatably one of the best wide receivers in the history of the National Football League. But they would also improve their roster by picking up talent such as Richie Incognito and Vontaze Burfict.
The Oakland Raiders have a load of talent on this team, there’s no question about that, but with heavy personalities such as Brown, Incognito and Burfict — all three of their big splashes in the offseason — the potential is high for an implosion, rather than a winning season. That’s one problem that I see with this year’s Raiders. There aren’t many other negatives, however, at least with their offseason.
Oakland would do their thing in the NFL Draft, picking up four players who were in the College Football Playoff National Championship game. With the No. 4 pick, they would make their biggest splash by selecting DE Clelin Ferrell from Clemson University, followed by the University of Alabama’s RB Josh Jacobs at No. 24. With the No. 40 pick, they would select Clemson CB Trayvon Mullen, and last but not least, they would take Clemson WR Hunter Renfrow at No. 149. With that being said, Ferrell will be the only one to begin the season as a starter, the rest may crack the starting roster as the season progresses.
With the talent that they have, you may want to risk a little wager on the Oakland Raiders and their +1100 odds. I don’t have them winning the division with my prediction, but it’s certainly an interesting (and profitable) bet to make. The Raiders should be a fun team to watch this year, especially with a little bit of do-re-mi at stake.
Whatever it is you decide to do with betting on this division, make sure you do one thing, and that’s to keep your money completely away from the Denver Broncos. Unless you’re a Broncos fan, I don’t see any reason whatsoever why you would ride with Denver to win the AFC West. If you thought about it, donate that money to a charity instead, or President Trump’s re-election campaign, it’s really up to you.
The Broncos would upgrade the quarterback position, going from Case Keenum to Joe Flacco, but it’s not a good enough acquisition to bring them back into the postseason. Denver also has questions at the running back position as well. Phillip Lindsay would suffer a wrist injury that would end his season last year, and it’s up for debate how his return will go.
And that creates a major issue, because the Denver Broncos will be relying on Lindsay for a load of production this season. As a matter of fact, they’ll need for the second-year player to be their best on the offensive side, and that’s asking a ton of someone who missed a lot of training in the offseason due to rehabbing from his wrist surgery. On top of that, the opposition will be prepared for him unlike his rookie season last year. Instead of getting caught off guard with his speedy ability, teams will be ready to go for Lindsay this time. Film and scouting certainly makes a difference.
You know the drill: Stay away from the Denver Broncos.
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