Blake Daniels, November 8, 2022

0 COMMENTS

It’s a battle between division rivals Ohio and Miami-OH on Tuesday night at the Fred C. Yager Stadium. Kick-off for this in-state clash is at 7:30 p.m. ET.

The Bobcats are the no. 1 team in the MAC East Division with a 6-3 SU overall and a 4-1 SU conference mark. They head to this game with a four-game winning streak, including a 45-24 demolition of co-division leaders Buffalo in their last game.

Meanwhile, the RedHawks are 4-5 SU on the season and 2-3 SU in division play, tied with Kent State for the second-worst division mark in the MAC East. Miami-OH defeated Akron 27-9 the last time out to snap a two-game losing streak where they scored a combined 23 points.

Ohio Bobcats

After losing to Kent State by a touchdown in their conference opener, the Ohio Bobcats have won four in a row, including a 45-24 victory the last time out to snap Buffalo’s five-game winning run. The win enabled the Bobcats to tie the Bulls’ atop the MAC East Division with a 4-1 SU mark.

Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke finished with 317 yards on 20-29 passing while throwing 5 TD passes and just one INT. Rourke has thrown for over 300 yards in five out of their nine games played this season and the Bobcats are 4-1 SU when he does so. For the season Rourke has thrown 21 TD passes with only 4 INTs.

Sam Wiglusz led the Bobcats in receiving with 131 yards on 6 catches with two TD grabs against Buffalo. This marked his 4th game with at least 2 TD catches and his second straight such game, doing so against North Illinois and Buffalo.

The Bobcats have struggled on defense, as they are allowing 428 total yards per game this season which is 127th in the nation. Their secondary also ranks just 131st in the nation with an average of 324 yards per game allowed.

Miami-OH RedHawks

Miami defeated Akron 27-9 last October 29th to snap back-to-back losses to Bowling Green and Western Michigan. They took a week off and should be well-prepared to meet their division leaders while also savoring their win over the Zips.

Nate Muersch caught an 11-yard TD pass from Brett Gabbert as Miami took a 7-0 lead. Akron responded with a field goal before the Red Hawks scored 20 unanswered points to put the game away. Jacques Warren returned an INT for a pick-six to punctuate the scoring run.

Gabbert finished with 184 yards on 13-23 passing with 1 TD pass. Wide receiver Mac Hippenhammer caught 4 passes for 84 yards. Keyon Mozee rushed for 52 yards on 13 carries but the entire offense was 2-13 on third down conversions against Akron.

The offense has been a problem for the RedHawks who are averaging 299 yards per game, 123rd overall in college football, including just 149 passing yards per contest. On the other hand, their defense has been solid at 15th overall in rushing yards allowed per game at 107.8.

Ohio vs Miami-OH 11/8/22 SU Prediction

Ohio is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against Miami-OH. The Bobcats are also 2-1 SU in their last 3 road games against the RedHawks.

Ohio Bobcats SU trends:

• The Bobcats are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Bobcats are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played on the road.
• The Bobcats are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against the Eastern Division.
• The Bobcats are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the Mid-American Conference.

Miami-OH RedHawks SU trends:

• The RedHawks are 4-5 SU in their 9 games played this season.
• The RedHawks are 16-1 SU in their last 17 home games.
• The RedHawks are 15-5 SU in their last 20 November games.
• The RedHawks are 4-2 SU in their last 6 Week 11 games.

Ohio’s calling card this season is their offense which is scoring 33.4 points per game and averaging 431.3 yards of offense per contest. They are also 13th in the nation at 309.4 passing yards per outing. Kurtis Rourke has 21 passing TDs including 9 to his top target Sam Wiglusz.

Meanwhile, the RedHawks are averaging just 19.4 points per game and their season started on the wrong foot after QB Brett Gabbert got hurt. Gabbert returned two weeks ago but so far, the offense still looks troubled.

 After scoring only 10 points two weeks ago, they generated only 268 yards of offense last week on a measly 4.5 yards per play. Miami only picked up 13 first downs against an Akron team that was giving up 21 per contest.

This game may not be as close as the betting lines say it is. The Bobcats have won seven out of their last 10 games played against the RedHawks and have outscored them by 8.7 points per game during that span. Ohio has been an undervalued team all season long and I like them to pick up the victory here with Miami unable to keep pace with their scoring.

Prediction: Ohio Bobcats

Ohio vs Miami-Oh 11/8/22 ATS Prediction

Ohio is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games played against Miami-OH.

Ohio Bobcats ATS trends:

• The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.
• The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up win.
• The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
• The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.
• The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Bobcats are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Bobcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games.
• The Bobcats are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.

Miami – OH RedHawks trends:

• The RedHawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The RedHawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• The RedHawks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• The RedHawks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.
• The RedHawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up win.
• The RedHawks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.
• The RedHawks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win.
• The RedHawks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• The RedHawks are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• The RedHawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.

The Ohio offense has been on track this season and they are coming off a game against Buffalo where they scored 45 points and threw five passing touchdowns. However, the Bobcats are just 1-3 on the road this season with losses to Penn State, Iowa State, and Kent State.

Miami is however ranked 15th in the nation in rush defense. The RedHawks are also allowing just 240 yards through the air this campaign. Meanwhile, Ohio is averaging 309 passing yards per game and scoring 33 points per outing. While the RedHawks are playing good defense right now, I’m not sure if they can totally stop the Bobcats from putting up points on the scoreboard.

I think that the Miami defense is going to keep them in this game and make it interesting. However, their struggles on offense will enable the Bobcats to pick up more than enough points to win this game on the road.

Prediction: Ohio -2

Ohio vs Miami-Oh 11/8/22 Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in 9 out of the last 12 games played between these two teams. The under is also 5-0 in their last five meetings in Miami (OH).

Ohio Bobcats over/under trends:

• The under is 7-2 in the Bobcats’ last 9 road games.
• The under is 9-1 in the Bobcats’ last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bobcats’ last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
• The under is 6-1 in the Bobcats’ last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.
• The under is 5-1 in the Bobcats’ last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• The under is 15-6 in the Bobcats’ last 21 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 9-4 in the Bobcats’ last 13 conference games.
• The over is 4-1 in the Bobcats’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 8-2 in the Bobcats’ last 10 Tuesday games.
• The over is 8-3 in the Bobcats’ last 11 games in November.
• The over is 5-2 in the Bobcats’ last 7 games following an ATS win.
• The over is 5-2 in the Bobcats’ last 7 games following a bye week.

Miami -OH RedHawks over/under trends:

• The under is 23-9 in the RedHawks’ last 32 games overall.
• The under is 5-1 in the RedHawks’ last 6 home games.
• The under is 6-0 in the RedHawks’ last 6 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the RedHawks’ last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-0 in the RedHawks’ last 5 conference games.
• The under is 5-0 in the RedHawks’ last 5 games on field turf.
• The under is 6-1 in the RedHawks’ last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 6-1 in the RedHawks’ last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
• The under is 13-3 in the RedHawks’ last 16 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 13-3 in the RedHawks’ last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• The under is 4-1 in the RedHawks’ last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the RedHawks’ last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 14-4 in the RedHawks’ last 18 games following a straight-up win.

Ohio owns a high-powered passing attack but Miami has a defense that may be good enough to keep it in check on Tuesday. On the other hand, the Bobcats’ offense has struggled all season long and they are averaging just 19.4 points per game this season.

I like the under in this game. The under is 9-1 in the Bobcats’ last 10 games against an opponent with a losing record. The under is also 5-0 in the RedHawks’ last five conference game plays. And don’t forget too, the under is 5-0 in their last five games played in Oxford.

These teams have combined to score just 48.5 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. This one should also go under the betting total.

Prediction: Under 50.5