The San Diego Padres play the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 2 of their current three-game set at Chase Field.
This is Game 18 of their 19 games head-to-head series this season and so far, the Padres lead the series 10-7.
San Diego won their Monday game 7-5, led by home runs from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Eric Hosmer.
San Diego is 70-62 on the season and they are in third place in the National League West division team standings, a far 14.5 games behind division leaders San Francisco. However, the Padres are just one game behind the Cincinnati Reds for the second playoff spot in the NL. San Diego defeated Arizona on Monday night to end a three-game losing streak.
The Padres are scoring an average of 4.60 runs per game this season. Their batting average of .241 ranked 14th in the league while their .323 on-base percentage is 10th, and their slugging of .402 is 18th overall. San Diego has some of the best pitching in the league this season. They are 10th in ERA at 3.77 and in WHIP at 1.23 Opponents have a batting average of 235 against their staff.
Blake Snell will open on top of the mound for the Padres. Snell is 6-5 on the season with an ERA of 4.58 and a WHIP of 1.45. The 28-year old left-hander has pitched in a total of 114 innings this season and has allowed 58 earned runs on 100 hits with 65 walks and 149 strikeouts. In his last start, Snell gave up three hits and one run in 7.2 innings but his bullpen blew a lead in a 5-3 loss against Los Angeles.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are at 44-88 on the season and they have the second-worst record in the entire majors, just three games better than the MLB-worst Baltimore Orioles. Arizona has lost four straight games, including a 7-5 defeat to San Diego on Monday night at home.
Arizona is scoring just 4.20 runs per game this season. They are 22nd in batting average at .237 and 21st in OBP at .312. The Diamondbacks are also 25th in SLG at 382. Their pitching ranks near the bottom with an ERA of 5.15 which is 29th in the league. Arizona’s WHIP is also just 29th at 1.45 and so is their opposing team batting average of .268.
Zac Gallen has a 2-7 record in 17 starts. He has an ERA of 4.32 this season and a WHIP of 1.31. Gallen has pitched a total of 85.1 innings and has allowed 41 earned runs on 75 hits with 37 walks and 102 strikeouts. In his last outing, Gallen conceded three hits and two runs in an 8-7 win over the Philadelphia Phillies.
San Diego is just 3-10 in their last 13 games played. The Padres are also 3-10 in their last 10 games as betting favorites, 1-4 in their last five Game 2 of a series, 3-13 in their last 16 games played on grass, 2-9 in their last 11 games as road favorites, 0-6 in their last six games against the National League West, and 2-8 in their last 10 road games.
Arizona is 29-75 in their last 104 games played overall. The Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 home games against an opponent with a winning record, 15-37 in their last 52 games against a left-handed starter, 2-5 in their last seven Game 2 of a series, 14-37 in their last 51 games against the National League West, and 9-42 in their last 51 games when the total is set between 7 and 8.5.
Arizona has won just twice in their last seven games and they have scored only 10 runs in their last three games. That offense is going to find trouble against Snell who has allowed two runs in his two previous starts against the Diamondbacks and there is no reason he can hold their offense in check once again.
San Diego is also struggling as badly as Arizona right now but they have played well against the Diamondbacks, especially versus Gallen whom they hit with six scoring runs in 9.2 innings pitched in two games.
I like the Padres to emerge victorious.
Prediction: San Diego Padres
The total has gone under in eight out of the last 11 games played by the Padres. The under is 5-0-1 in their last six games against the National League West, 4-1 in their last five games as betting favorites, 8-2-1 in their last 11 games played on grass, 3-1-1 in their last five Game 2 of a series, and 4-1 in their last five games played on the road.
The total has gone under if five out of Arizona’s last six games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last four games when the total is set between 7 and 8.5, 4-1-1 in their last six games as betting underdogs, 4-1 in their last five Game 2 of a series, 4-1-1 in their last six games as home underdogs, and 5-1 in their last six games at home against an opponent with a winning record.
Snell isn’t having that excellent season but he has conceded only four runs in his last three road starts. Against Arizona this season, Snell has pitched a total of 16.2 innings and has an ERA of 1.08 against the Diamondbacks this year.
Arizona ranks in the Bottom 10 in most offensive categories including total runs scored (22nd), batting average (22nd), OBP (21st), and SLG (25th). They have scored just a total of 10 runs in their last three games combined.
These teams have combined to score an average of 7.33 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings. I am picking the under here.
Prediction: Under 8.5
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