The San Diego Padres try again as the face their NL West rivals San Francisco Giants in Game 2 of their current four-game set in the city by the bay.
San Francisco blew out San Diego 9-1 in Game 1 of the series on Monday to earn the first playoff spot in the majors this season. Prior to this home set, the Giants swept the Chicago Cubs over the weekend, taking Sunday’s finale via 6-5 score. San Francisco is 94-50 on the season and they have the best record in baseball, 2.5 games ahead of the defending champions Los Angeles Dodgers.
San Diego was swept by the L.A. Dodges in their previous series and was blanked twice. The Padres have dropped four out of their last five games and are 19.5 games behind the Giants in the divisional standings. San Diego however is just one-half game behind the Cincinnati Reds for the 2nd wild card spot in the NL so this is a very important game for them.
Jose Arrieta will take the mound for the Padres for his 23rd start of the season and his third with the Padres. Arrieta has a record of 5-12 with an ERA of 7.04 and a WHIP of 1.732 with 41 walks and 80 strikeouts in a total of 94.2 innings of work. In his last start on September 3rd, Arrieta allowed three runs on five hits with one walk and three strikeouts in a 6-3 loss to the Astros. He did not factor in that game’s decision.
On offense, San Diego started out strong but has settled down in the middle of the rankings at 18th in batting average (.240), 20th in slugging (.399) but are 10th in OBP (.322). Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the team with 38 home runs and 90 RBI while hitting at .283. Manny Machado is batting .276 and he has homered 24 times this season.
Anthony DeSclafani will open on top of the hill for the Giants on Tuesday. DeSclafani has a record of 11-6 with an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.116 in 27 starts this season. He has allowed 40 walks with 137 strikeouts in a total of 146 innings pitched. In his most recent start last Wednesday, DeSclafani allowed three runs on seven hits with one walk and five strikeouts in 4.1 innings. The Giants won 7-4 but he did not factor in the decision.
San Francisco has been terrific on both sides of the field. Their pitching staff ranks in the Top 5 in most statistical categories while their offense is in the Top 10 of most statistical departments in the league. Brandon Belt leads the team with 24 home runs while also contributing 50 RBI and batting at .258. Brandon Crawford is hitting at .297 with an OBP of .370 and an SLG of .516. Crawford leads the team with 80 RBI and he also has 20 homers on the season.
San Diego is 1-4 in their last five games played. The Padres are 2-8 in their last 10 games against an opponent with a winning record, 3-13 in their last 16 against the National League West, 1-10 in their last 11 games as road underdogs, 1-4 in their last five games played on grass, and 0-4 in their last four road games.
San Francisco is 40-18 in their last 58 games played. The Giants are 9-2 in their last 11 Game 2 of a series, 4-1 in their last five Tuesday games, 48-17 in their last 65 games as betting favorites, 43-16 in their last 59 games as home favorites, 40-18 in their last 58 games against the National League West, and 38-14 in their last 52 games against a right-handed starter.
Head to head, the Giants have won four out of the last five meetings between these two teams.
Arrieta has struggled all season long and his inability to pitch deep into games is going to give additional load to a San Diego bull pen that has been very as of late. However, the San Francisco’s DeSclafani has struggled in his last few starts as he continues to recover from an ankle injury. Those said, I think the pitching matchup is pretty much even here and this game will go down to which team can score better.
San Diego stated out well offensively but they have settled to the middle of the league in most offensive statistical categories. Meanwhile, the Giants rank in the Top 10 in runs, hits, home runs, RBI, batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS.
The Giants are clearly the better team on offense. And they are also the team that is playing better right now. Give me the Giants.
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
The total has gone over in five out of the last seven road games played by the Padres. The over is 4-1-1 in their last six Game 2 of a series, 4-1 in their last five games as road underdogs, and 4-0 in their last four Tuesday games. However, the under is also 9-4-3 in their last 16 games as betting underdogs, and 9-4-1 when the total is set between 8.0-9.5.
The total has gone under in the Giants’ last four games as home favorites. The under is 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning record, 6-2 in their last eight games against a right-handed starter, 14-4-1 in their last 19 overall against a right-handed starter, and 4-1 in their last five home games.
Arrieta hs been lit up on several occasions this season and his last 10 starts have seen an average of 12.3 runs per game scored combined. But remember that stretch included two games where the total went 22 and 25 so it’s not as bad as it looks, overall. The under is also 5-3-2 during that period with the total of those 10 games set at at least nine runs.
Although DeSclafani hasn’t been 100% as of late, he has seen an average total of 8.4 runs per game in his last five starts during which the under was 3-1-1. Goin farther back, he’s seen an average total of 9.5 runs per game in his last 10 starts.
The San Diego offense has been fading while the Giants’ pitching continues to be very good with their pitching staff ranking in the Top 5 in ERA, runs allowed, WHIP, walks allowed, and BAA.
I like these teams to go under. San Diego isn’t hitting the ball as well as they did early in the season. Both pitchers should hold their own here as well.
Prediction: Under 9
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