The New England Patriots visit the Minnesota Vikings at the U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Thanksgiving Day.
New England delivered a spectacular win over the New York Jets when they won the game with a punt return touchdown by Marcus Jones. The game looked destined to go to overtime when Jones returned the football 84 yards for the only TD scored in the game. The Pats are 6-4 SU on the season.
The Vikings are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 40-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in their last outing. Minnesota is 8-2 SU on the season but they played nowhere near their record during the loss to the Cowboys.
The Patriots salvaged another poor offensive performance with a game-winning punt return TD by Marcus Jones. New England finished the game with only 297 total yards with 84 of those coming from their final play by Jones. On defense, New England delivered another strong performance, giving up only 3 points and 103 total yards.
Mac Jones has thrown for 1,386 passing yards with 4 TD passes and 8 interceptions. Rhamondre Stevenson leads the New England ground attack with 644 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns while also catching 283 yards with one TD grab. Jakobi Meyers is their top receiver with 509 yards on 44 catches with 3 TD grabs.
Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks with 13 while also contributing 23 solo tackles. Ja’Whaun Bentley leads the Patriots with 64 solo tackles and has two sacks, one interception, and three tackles for loss.
The Vikings saw their 7-game winning streak end last week in a disappointing 40-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Minnesota scored 3 points in the opening quarter and then the offense suddenly flatlined. The Vikings produced only 183 total yards including just 110 through the air.
Kirk Cousins has thrown for 2,461 yards with 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions while averaging 6.5 yards per pass. Dalvin Cook is the NFL’s 7th best rusher with 799 yards and six rushing TDs this season. Justin Jefferson is 2nd in the league in receiving yards with 1,093 and has caught 4 TD passes from Cousins with a total of 72 receptions.
Za’Darius Smith leads Minnesota in sacks with 9.5 which is the third-most in the entire NFL. Harrison Smith leads the Vikings’ secondary with four INTs while also contributing 45 solo tackles and one forced fumble.
The Patriots are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played against the Vikings. New England is 2-1 SU in their last three games played in Minnesota.
New England Patriots SU trends:
Minnesota Viking SU trends:
There’s no question that the Patriots have one of the best defenses this season, if not the best. They have allowed only three points in each of their previous two games played. Last week, they held the Jets to only 103 yards of total offense and then emerged victorious after Marcus Jones’ game-winning punt return TD in the final seconds of the game.
But while the defense has looked stout, there are several concerns regarding Mac Jones and the offense. New England has scored only two offensive touchdowns in Jones’ last three starts. They have struggled in the red zone all season long and have reached the red zone only 12 times in 28 trips inside their opponent’s 20-yard line.
Following last week’s 40-3 blowout loss, the Vikings have been outscored by their opponents this season. Minnesota is four games ahead in the NFC North Division standings and 2nd in the Conference boards. Last week, Kirk Cousins was sacked seven times, including a sack-strip turnover during his first dropback.
The Vikings finished with a measly 183 yards of offense which is its worst total in two seasons. The defense didn’t do any better as the Cowboys’ running backs Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott scored two TDs each.
The New England defense will keep them in the game here but they will need more from their offense if they want to win this game. The Pats are scoring less than 20 points per game over the past month. That could happen against a Vikings secondary that has allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL this season.
The Minnesota offensive line needs to do a better job after giving up 7 sacks last week against Dallas. With the New England pass rush that has looked strong this season, the Vikings need to protect Cousins. If Cousins has enough time to throw, Minnesota has got this.
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings
The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played against the Vikings. New England is 2-1 ATS in their last three games played in Minnesota. The favorite is however 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games played between these two teams.
New England Patriots ATS trends:
Minnesota Vikings ATS trends:
The Vikings have been a very good team this season and I don’t think that one blowout loss is going to discourage them. Cousins and Jefferson have been able to move the ball downfield with plenty of success while Cook has gotten the job done in the end zone.
New England has the defense that will keep them in this game. However, their offensive woes are going to make it difficult for them to win this game.
I think that Minnesota gets off to a strong start and New England will find it hard to catch up. The Vikings take this game by at least a field goal.
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings -2.5
The total has gone under in 5 out of the last 6 games played between these two teams. The under is also 4-0 in their last 4 meetings in Minnesota.
New England Patriots Over/Under trends:
Minnesota Vikings Over/Under trends:
I expect both teams to have a better offensive performance than their last outings. The Patriots did not score a TD until their final possession against the Jets. Meanwhile, the Vikings could not score a single TD against the Cowboys.
However, even if the Patriots’ offense gets back on track, they have only averaged only 21.3 points per game this season. Defensively, New England is stout at 16.9 points per game this season so Cousins could encounter problems here. I think the Vikings get their offense back. However, they won’t need to score much to win this game given New England’s offensive woes.
Prediction: Under 42.5
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