Blake Daniels, July 8, 2022

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The Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals open a four-game series on Friday at Busch Stadium with the first pitch to be thrown at 8:15 pm.

Philadelphia heads to this contest with a record of 44-39. They are 3rd in the NL East Division team standings and are currently eight games behind the New York Mets. The Phillies are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they are coming off a 2-1 series win against the Washington Nationals.

St. Louis is 45-40 on the year and they are in second place in the NL Central and are only 2.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cardinals are 4-6 in their last 10 games played and they dropped their previous series to the world champions Atlanta Braves 3-1. St. Louis avoided the sweep by beating the Braves 3-2 in Game 4 on Thursday.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have played well recently, winning seven out of their last 11 games and beating the Cardinals 2-1 during that stretch. Philadelphia beat the Nationals 2-1 in their most recent set, clinching the series with a 5-3 win on Thursday.

Philadelphia is scoring an average of 4.91 runs per game this season and is hitting at .248 as a team. They are also hitting an average of 1.33 home runs per game which is the 5th best average in the league. Their 52 stolen bases this year are ranked 8th. Kyle Schwarber has 55 RBIs and 27 home runs to lead the team this season.

Zack Wheeler will open on top of the mound for the Phillies. Wheeler is 7-4 this season with an ERA of 2.66 and a WHIP of 1.07. He has pitched in a total of 88.0 innings this season and has conceded 26 earned runs on 74 hits with 99 strikeouts and 20 walks allowed.

In his last start, Wheeler pitched 7.0 scoreless innings with only four hits allowed during a 4-0 win against the Cardinals. The Phillies are 7-3 in Wheeler’s last 10 starts.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have struggled in their last 10 games played with six losses during that span. Despite that, they are still just 2.5 games down in their division but they need to start picking up wins again to keep up with the Brewers. Dylan Carlon‘s tie-breaking single at the top of the 11th enabled the Cardinals to beat the Braves 3-2 and avoid getting swept in their four-game set.

St. Louis is scoring 4.7 runs per game and is hitting at .252 as a team. They rank in the Top 10 in both runs scored per game and team batting average. The Cardinals also rank 15th in home runs per game with 1.11. Paul Goldschmidt is the NL MVP favorite and he has produced 19 home runs and driven in 65 runs this season.

Adam Wainwright will open on top of the hill for the Cardinals. He is 6-6 this season with an ERA of 3.26 and an ERA of 1.27. Wainwright has pitched better at home with an ERA of 2.25 and a 3-2 record. In 96.2 inning pitched, he has allowed 35 earned runs on 96 hits with 81 strikeouts and 27 walks.

In his last start, Wainwright allowed four earned runs on 8 hits in 5.2 innings pitched during a 4-0 loss to the Phillis earlier this week. The Cardinals are 5-2 in Wainwright’s last seven starts.

Phillies vs Cardinals Betting Prediction

The Phillies are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games played against the Cardinals. These teams have split their last four meetings in St. Louis.

The Phillies are:

• 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
• 10-4 in their last 14 road games.
• 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass.
• 6-1 in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning record.
• 5-1 in their last 6 Friday games.
• 5-1 in their last 6 versus National League Central.
• 8-2 in their last 10 Game 1s of a series.
• 8-2 in their last 10 road games against a right-handed starter.
• 17-5 in their last 22 games versus a right-handed starter.
• 13-4 in their last 17 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 12-4 in their last 16 against a team with a winning record.
• 15-6 in their last 21 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 7-3 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 9-4 in their last 13 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 15-7 in their last 22 games following a win.

The Cardinals are:

• 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
• 11-5 in their last 16 home games.
• 8-1 in their last 9 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 5-1 in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning record.
• 14-4 in their last 18 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• 9-3 in their last 12 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 22-8 in their last 30 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 16-7 in their last 23 Friday games.
• 2-6 in their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
• 7-22 in their last 29 games opposite a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win.
• 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
• 1-4 in their last 5 against the National League East Division.
• 1-4 in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record.
• 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• 1-4 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 1-5 in their last 6 Game 1s of a series.
• 1-6 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 1-7 in their last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Cardinals will be sending Adam Wainwright to the mound on Friday. Wainwright has a solid 3.26 ERA this season and that number improves further to 2.25 when he is throwing the ball in their ballpark.

Meanwhile, the Phillies will start Zach Wheeler who is 7-4 this season with an ERA of 2.66. However, Wheeler has struggled on the road this year as he has allowed an average of 4.45 runs per game away from home.

With the Cardinals ranking 8th in runs scored per game and having the 8th best team batting average this season, I expect St. Louis to score more than enough runs against Wheeler to win this game.

Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

Phillies vs Cardinals Over/Under Odds

The total has gone under in six out of the last eight meetings between these two teams. The under is also 4-1 in their last five meetings in St. Louis.

Philadelphia Phillies over/under trends:

• The total has gone under in four out of the last six games played by the Phillies.
• Under is 6-2 in the Phillies’ last eight games played in the month of July.
• Under is 4-1 in the Phillies’ last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 8-3 in the Phillies’ last 11 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in the Phillies’ last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 7-3-1 in the Phillies’ last 11 games against the National League Central Division.
• Over is 7-0-1 in the Phillies’ last eight road games with the total set between 9.0- 10-.5 Over is 11-3-1 in the Phillies’ last 15 road games opposite a team with a winning record.
• Over is 22-8-1 in the Phillies’ last 31 games following a win.
• Over is 8-3 in the Phillies’ last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 9-4 in the Phillies’ last 13 road games against a right-handed starter.
• Over is 19-9-1 in the Phillies’ last 29 road games.

St. Louis Cardinals over/under trends:

• Under is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last 5 overall.
• Under is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last 5 on grass.
• Under is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last 5 versus the National League East.
• Under is 8-1 in the Cardinals’ last five games against the National League.
• Under is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last 5 against a team with a winning record.
• Under is 4-0 in the Cardinals’ last 4 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 6-0 in the Cardinals’ last 6 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Under is 6-1 in the Cardinals’ last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 Game 1s of a series.
• Under is 22-7 in the Cardinals’ last 29 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 5-2 in the Cardinals’ last 7 Friday games.

Wheeler is 7-4 on the season but is just 2-2 when pitching away from home, where he has an ERA of 4.45. With the Cardinals ranking in the Top 10 in several offensive categories, they should be able to score on Wheeler and force the Phillies to go to their bullpen which is ranked just 16th in reliever ERA at 3.79.

Meanwhile, Wainwright is throwing well this season but his last assignment was against this same Phillies team and he surrendered four runs in 5.2 innings pitched. Philadelphia ranks third in runs per game and 5th in total home runs. While Wainwright is expected to do well here, Philadelphia should be able to get enough runs and help the Cardinals send the score over the total.

Prediction: Over 7.5