The Portland Trail Blazers take on the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 1 of their first-round playoffs series at the AdventHeatth Arena in Orlando, Florida.
Los Angeles begins the playoffs as the #1 team in the Western Conference but some believe that the surging 8th seeded Blazers have what it takes to topple the mighty Lakers. Portland is especially dangerous with Damian Lillard on a scoring tear on his way to winning the Bubble MVP award.
Portland was 1-2 in their three regular-season games against the Lakers. However, Lillard scored 48 points in their latest meeting, and the Blazers beat the Lakers 127-119 on January 31, 2020. The Lakers lead the Blazers in their all-time playoff series matchup at 7-2.
The Portland Trail Blazers rose from the ashes and literally stole the 8th seed from the Memphis Grizzlies. Portland overtook Memphis for the 8th spot and then eliminated them in the play-in tournament last Saturday. Damian Lillard is averaging 51.3 points per game in his last three games played as the Blazers head to this game with plenty of momentum.
C.J. McCollum scored 14 of his 29 points in the 4th quarter against Memphis while Jusuf Nurkic had a 20-20 game despite the death of his grandmother. Carmelo Anthony added 21 points for the Blazers. Gary Trent Jr. has also been red-hot in the bubble and he could be a factor as well in this game.
Portland is the 6th best scoring team in the NBA this season at 115.0 points per game. However, they are just 26th in scoring defense at 116.1 points per game allowed. The Blazers are the 12th best rebounding team in the league at 45.3 boards hauled per outing and they are last in passing at 20.6 assists per contest.
The Los Angeles Lakers are having their best season in years. Los Angeles finished with the second-best record in the league and will be playing in their first postseason in seven years. LeBron James led the league in assists while Anthony Davis is one of the finalists for the Defensive Player of the Year award. With their two stars having fantastic seasons, the Lakers are looking at a deep playoff run.
But Los Angeles cannot be judged from their performance in the seeding games. Los Angeles took its foot off the gas pedal after clinching the top seed in their conference. As a result, the Lakers lost five out of their last seven games in Orlando, including a 14-point loss to the Kings to close out their seeding games assignment.
Los Angeles is 11th in the league in scoring at 113.4 points per game. The Lakers rank 4th in scoring defense at 107.4 points per game allowed. They are the 9th best rebounding team in the league this season at 45.7 boards grabbed per contest and are 10th in passing at 25.4 assists per outing.
Portland is 6-1 SU in their last seven games played. The Blazers are 3-1 SU in their last four games played on the road, and 6-1 SU in their last seven games played against the Western Conference. Los Angeles is 1-4 SU in their last five games played. The Lakers are 2-3 SU in their last five games played on the road, and 11-4 SU in their last 15 games played against the Western Conference. Head to head, the Blazers are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Lakers. However, Los Angeles has won two out of the last three meetings between these two teams.
The Blazers head to this game with plenty of momentum. The teams sneaked into the 8th spot and then defeated the Grizzlies in the play-in tournament. Damian Lillard was recently named as the Bubble MVP and the Blazers played consistent basketball last week. However, Portland will be without Zach Collins who suffered an ankle injury last Saturday.
Once Los Angeles clinched the top seed, they didn’t put effort into their games. Sure, this team is very talented and has two of the best players in the league. But the Lakers won’t have the size advantage here because Portland has the manpower to match their interior presence. I expect a close game here with Portland’s backcourt keeping them in the game all throughout the contest. However, the Lakers’ stars should help them pull off a hard-earned win. Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
The Blazers are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games played. Portland is 2-1-1 ATS in their last four games played on the road, and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games played against the Pacific Division. The Lakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games played this season. Los Angeles is 2-3 ATS in their last five games played on the road. Head to head, the Lakers are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Blazers.
There is no doubt that the Lakers have been the better team this season. But Los Angeles has coasted after clinching the top seed in the West. On the other hand, the Blazers have been blazing as Lillard has been on fire in the bubble tournament. There’s a good chance that the Blazers won’t win this game. But as far as the spread is concerned, I don’t trust the Lakers. Their recent ATS record is awful and I’m not sure if they win this game by a sizeable margin. Meanwhile, the Blazers have been in many close games in Orlando with only one game decided by 8 or more points. This is a team that thrives under pressure and with a clutch performer like Lillard, it’s hard to put them away. I’ll take the plus points here. Prediction: Blazers +5.5
The total has gone over in eight out of the last 10 games played by the Blazers. The over is 7-0 in Portland’s last seven games played on the road. The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by the Lakers. Los Angeles has seen the total go over in four out of their last six games played in August. The over is also 10-1 in the Lakers’ last 11 games played against the Northwest Division. Head to head, the total has gone over in four out of the last five meetings between these two teams.
These teams have combined to score an average of 247.67 points per game in their last three meetings and have hit over 230 in those three meetings. The Blazers have been an offensive juggernaut in Orlando as they have scored 124 or more points in five out of their last six games. The Lakers were a good defensive team during the pre-COVID-19 period but they have conceded 113 points or more in their last four games played. Portland’s defense has allowed at least 120 points in their last five assignments so this game could turn out to be a track meet with the better scoring team winning the game.
Prediction: Over 230
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