Blake Daniels, June 1, 2022

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The Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers meet up at Globe Life Field for Game 3 of their four-game set. The teams were still playing Game 2 as of this writing.

Entering Tuesday’s Game 3, the Rays are 28-20 on the season and in second place in the AL East, 5.5 games behind the division-leading New York Yankees. Tampa Bay is 5-5 in its last 10 games played and lost Game 1 via a score of 5-9. The Rays are 11-9 when playing on the road this season.

The Rangers are 23-24 on the season and in third place in the AL West, 7 games behind the Houston Astros who are on top of their division. Texas is 6-4 in their last 10 games played and as stated earlier, they beat the Rays 9-5 in Game 1. The Rangers are 11-12 in 23 home games played this season.

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay is averaging 4.2 runs per game which are 17th in the league. They have earned 192 RBIs and 376 base knocks on the year. The Rays are batting at .235 as a team this season and have scored a total of 203 runs with a team OBP of .298. They have a slugging percentage of .383 and have been called out on strikes in 411 instances while getting walked 135 times.

The Rays pitching staff has an ERA of 3.36 which ranks 5th best in baseball. They also have a WHIP of 1.10, a FIP of 3.73, and a K/BB average of 3.48. They have yielded 53 home runs and 193 runs while walking 122 and striking out 424 hitters.

Kevin Kiermaier leads Tampa Bay with six home runs of the season while also producing 15 RBIs. Meanwhile, Manuel Margot leads the team with 23 RBIs while also delivering three home runs. Wander Franco is the team’s best hitter at .270 while also owning an OBP of .305 and SLG of .421

Jeffrey Springs will open on top of the mound for the Rays. The 29-year-old left-hander from Belmont, NC has been very reliable since moving to the Tampa Bay rotation. In five games started, Springs has posted a 2-2 record with an ERA of 1.62 and a WHIP of 0.81 in over 33.1 innings pitched. He has conceded 6 runs on 20 hits with 33 strikeouts and seven walks.

Springs took a loss in his most recent start but he limited the Yankees to a pair of runs on five hits with no walks in six innings of work. New York beat Tampa Bay 2-0 in that game and the Rays are 3-2 in his last five starts.

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers rank 12th in scoring at 4.43 runs per game this season. They have 53 home runs and a total of 193 runs batted in. Texas is 58 doubles, 131 walks, and has been struck out on 389 occasions, 19th overall in baseball. The Rangers are a batting average of .234 on the season with a slugging percentage of .377 and a team OBP of .925 this year.

Texas is conceding an average of 4.3 runs per nine innings. Their pitching staff has surrendered a total of 198 runs, including 182 earned runs this season, and has an aggregate ERA of 3.95. They also have a team WHIP of 1.306 and a FIP of 4.10. The Rangers pitching staff has generated a total of 400 strikeouts versus 169 walks.

Corey Seager leads the Rangers with 11 home runs and also has a total of 24 RBIs on the season. Adonis Garcia is the team leader in RBIs with 31 while also producing 8 home runs. Kole Calhoun is the team’s best hitter at .265 while also having an OBP of .314 and SLG of .463.

Jon Gray will start on top of the hill for the Texas Rangers on Wednesday. The 30-year-old right-hander from Shawnee, OK will be making his 8th start of the season. Gray has a record of 1-2 with an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.32. He has allowed 21 runs on 32 hits with 32 strikeouts and 13 walks in a total of 34.0 innings pitched.

Gray gave up five earned runs on five hits and three walks against the A’s last Friday. He did not factor in the decision in the 8-5 win for the Rangers. Texas is 3-2 in Gray’s last five starts of the season.

Who Wins?

The Rays are 2-5 in their last seven games played against the Rangers. Tampa Bay is also 1-3 in their last four games played in Texas.

The Tampa Bay Rays are:

• 6-0 in their last 6 Wednesday games.
• 8-0 in their last 8 games with the total set at 7.5 or lower.
• 4-0 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 7.5 or lower.
• 6-2 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 11.0 or lower.
• 54-23 in their last 77 against a team with a losing record.
• 38-18 in their last 56 Game 3s of a series.
• 86-41 in their last 127 games as betting favorites.
• 2-5 in their last 7 road games versus a right-handed starter.
• 2-6 in their last 8 games on grass.
• 2-6 in their last 8 road games.
• 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
• 1-4 in their last 5 against an opponent American League West.
• 1-4 in their last 5 road games versus a team with a losing record.
• 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• 1-5 in their last 6 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Texas Rangers are:

• 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
• 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog.
• 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
• 4-0 in their last 4 home games against an opponent with a winning record.
• 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
• 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
• 5-1 in their last 6 games versus a left-handed starter.
• 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
• 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 7-2 in their last 9 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• 19-41 in their last 60 games with the total set at 6.0-7.5.
• 5-13 in their last 18 home games with the total set at 6.0-7.5.
• 8-21 in their last 29 against an opponent from the American League East.
• 7-20 in their last 27 Wednesday games.

The Rays are a team that usually wins games that they are supposed to and this is one of those games. On Wednesday, they shouldn’t have any major issues against a starter in Jon Gray who has been underwhelming this season.

Gray has an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.32 this season. Those numbers drop to 6.35 and 1.59 when pitching at home. He was touched up for five earned runs on five hits and three walks against Oakland last Friday. While it was a no-decision for him his team is just 3-4 in his last seven starts.

Tampa Bay has not been a very productive team on offense this season but against Gray, they should be able to score more than enough runs to win the game.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays. If you are brave enough, you can even go with the Rays at -1.5 at the run line for a better price of +135.

Rays vs Rangers Over/Under Betting Prediction

The total has gone over in three out of the last five meetings between these two teams with one push.

Tampa Bay Rays over/under betting trends:

• Over is 8-2-2 in the Rays’ last 12 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 6-2 in the Rays’ last 8 against a team with a losing record.
• Over is 10-4-2 in the Rays’ last 16 on grass.
• Over is 5-2-1 in the Rays’ last 8 versus the American League West.
• Over is 10-4-2 in the Rays’ last 16 road games.
• Over is 32-15-4 in the Rays’ last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 5-1-1 in the Rays’ last 7 games as a road favorite.
• Over is 5-0 in the Rays’ last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or lower.
• Over is 5-0 in the Rays’ last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or lower.
• Under is 8-3-1 in the Rays’ last 12 Wednesday games.

Texas Rangers over/under betting trends:

• Over is 4-0 in the Rangers’ last 4 overall.
• Over is 5-0 in the Rangers’ last 5 games a home underdog.
• Over is 4-0 in the Rangers’ last 4 on grass.
• Over is 5-0 in the Rangers’ last 5 home games against a team with a winning record.
• Over is 4-0 in the Rangers’ last 4 home games.
• Over is 4-0 in the Rangers’ last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 4-1 in the Rangers’ last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the Rangers’ last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Rangers’ last 5 games against a left-handed starter.
• Under is 5-1-1 in the Rangers’ last 7 games against a team with a winning record.
• Under is 4-1-1 in the Rangers’ last 6 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Under is 6-2-1 in the Rangers’ last 9 games as an underdog.
• Under is 15-7-5 in the Rangers’ last 27 Wednesday games.

Jeffrey Springs has been throwing well since recently moving into the starting rotation. Flying under the radar, Springs is arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball at this stage of the season. He has an ERA of 1.62 and a WHIP of 0.81 in a 33.1 innings of work. The Rays also have one of the top bullpens in baseball, ranking 9th overall in bullpen ERA at 3.34.

While I expect the Rays to score multiple runs against Gray, the Rangers won’t help them get the score to go over the betting total. With Springs and the relievers doing their jobs here, Texas’ scoring opportunities will be limited.

Prediction: Under 7.5