The Boston Red Sox head north to face the Toronto Blue Jays in a showdown at Rodgers Centre.
Boston enters this series with a 42-31 record overall and after a slow start to the season, they have picked up the pace. The Red Sox have won 18 out of their last 22 games played, including their last seven. Boston is, however, still 11 games behind the New York Yankees in the battle for the AL East Division.
Toronto is 40-32 on the season and they are 3-7 in their last 10 games including their last two against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Blue Jays are currently 4th in the AL East and are 12.5 games off the division-leading Yankees.
The Red Sox are 22-15 away from home while the Blue Jays are 21-14 at Rodgers Centre this season. These teams have played seven times this season with the Blue Jays winning five out of those seven head-to-head matchups.
The Red Sox lost 19 out of their first 29 games of the season but have come on strong as of late. Boston had a six-game winning streak in May, a seven-game win streak earlier this month, and heads to this series with another seven-game winning streak. The Red Sox swept the Tigers and Guardians in their last two series’ played.
Starting for the Red Sox in this series opener is Connor Seabold who has yet to start a game in the majors this season and who only has one career start in the big league. Seabold was called up from Triple A-Worcester where he had 11 starts and posted an ERA of 2.09 and WHIP of 1.00 in a total of 51.2 innings pitched.
Boston’s .261 team batting average is the best in the majors. They are led by third baseman Rafael Devers who has 93 hits with 44 RBIs and 17 home runs. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts has 86 hits while J.D. Martinez has 78. Trevor Story leads the Red Sox with 50 RBIs while also hitting 11 home runs on the season.
The Blue Jays went 12 games over the .500 mark last June 15th but have struggled with three wins in their last 10 games played. They head to this match-up having lost their last three series to the Yankees, White Sox, and Brewers all via 2-1 series score. Despite that, they are still 2.5 games up on Cleveland for the final AL wild-card spot.
Toronto will send Kevin Gausman to the top of the hill on Monday. The right-hander is 5-6 with an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP of 1.28 in a total of 14 stars. Gausman has allowed 28 earned runs on 88 hits with 87 strikeouts and 13 walks in a total of 79.0 innings pitched this season.
Gausman allowed only two earned runs on seven hits in 6.0 innings pitched against the Chicago White Sox in his last start. The Blue Jays lost the game 7-6 in 12 innings with Gausman not factoring in the decision. The Blue Jays are 2-6 in his last eight starts and winless in his most recent four mound appearances.
The Red Sox are 1-5 in their last six games played against the Blue Jays. Boston is also 1-4 SU in their last five games played in Toronto.
The Red Sox are:
The Blue Jays are:
Sure, Gausman has a low ERA of 3.19 but he’s allowed an average of 7 hits in his last five starts and has not gotten the needed run support to win those games. The Blue Jays averaged only 3.75 runs per game in the four games he lost from his last five starts.
The Red Sox are bringing in a replacement pitcher to start this game. However, Seabold has looked good so far, even if it’s against Triple-A competition. Boston is also one of the hottest teams in the league with seven straight wins. They have scored five or more runs six times during that stretch, including four with at least six.
Gausman might outduel Seabold but the Boston bats should make up for the difference in the pitching department. Toronto’s inability to keep up with the red-hot Boston offense is going to cost them this game. I won’t blame you if you take the Blue Jays and the more experienced starter. However, at the price these teams are pegged at, I’d rather roll with Boston and the plus money.
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
The total has gone under in five out of the last seven meetings between these two teams. The under is also 4-0 in the last four meetings in Boston.
The Boston Red Sox over/under trends:
The Toronto Blue Jays are:
It’s hard not to trust these two offenses on Monday night. Toronto ranks 10th overall in runs scored while Boston is 7th in that department. The Red Sox lead the league in batting average while the Blue Jays are 4th. Both are also in the Top 10 in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Meanwhile, Gausman has allowed baserunners at a high rate lately while Seabold has not started a game in the majors this season. Given the starters, and the kind of offense these two teams are putting up this season, this should be a high-scoring game. Four out of Boston’s last seven games have hit a total of at least 9 runs while nine out of the Blue Jays’ last 10 games have seen a total of at least 9 runs.
Prediction: Over 9
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