The Cincinnati Reds take on the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of their current set on Wednesday.
Atlanta took the opener on Tuesday 3-2 behind a two-run homer by Adam Duvall. Stephen Vogt’s bases-loaded walk forced in the go-ahead and winning run in the sixth inning of this battle between second-placed teams.
The Reds are 30-26 away from home and are 29-21 as betting underdogs. Meanwhile, the Braves are 30-28 at home and are just 25-49 as betting favorites this season.
After losing Game 1 of the series, the Reds have dropped two in a row after winning 10 out of their last 12 games. Cincinnati is 61-53 on the season and they are and they are seven games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the lead in the NL Central standings and are 4.5 games behind the last wild card spot in the NL.
Wade Miley will make his 21st start of the season for the Reds. Miley has a 9-4 record with an ERA of 2.93 and a WHIP of 1.158. He has a total of 22 walks and 45 strikeouts in a total of 61.1 innings of work. In his last start against the Pirates last Friday, Miley threw seven innings and allowed no run on six hits and two walks with five strikeouts as the Reds won 10-0.
Nicolas Castellanos has a .302 batting average and a .570 slugging percentage. Joey Votto and Jesse Winker have combined to hit 46 home runs while Eugenio Suarez has 22 home runs. A total of seven hitters have at least 10 home runs for the Reds and five batters have an OPS+ of at least 100.
The Braves won for the sixth time in seven games as they took the opening game of this series. Atlanta enters Game 2 as the second-placed team in the National League East, just one game behind the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves are also 7 games behind the Padres for the second and final wild card spot in the NL.
Touki Touissant will open on top of the mound for Atlanta on Wednesday. The 25-year old will be making just his fifth start for the Braves and he has a record of 1-2 with a 4.43 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, six walks, and 23 strikeouts in 22.1 innings of pitch work. Touissant threw five innings and gave up three runs on five hits, with two walks and three strikeouts.
Freddie Freeman has 24 home runs and a .294 batting average this season. Austin Riley has 23 dingers while Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies have combined for 38 home runs and 406 total based. Atlanta is without MVP candidate Ronald Acuna who is out with injury but the Braves are still scoring 4.81 runs per game this season.
The Reds are 5-1 in their last six games played. Cincinnati is 4-0 in their last four games against a right-handed starter, 4-0 in their last four games against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15, 5-1 in their last six road games against an opponent with a winning record, 5-2 in their last seven Wednesday games, and 8-3 in their last 11 games on the road.
The Braves are also 5-1 in their last six games played. Atlanta is 4-0 in their last four games against a left-handed starter, 5-1 in their last six games played on grass, 5-1 in their last six games when the total is set between 9-10.5, 4-1 in their last five games against the National League Central but just 3-7 in their last 10 Wednesday games.
These are two teams that are playing well and look to be evenly matched. Atlanta has been playing well lately while the Cincinnati offense has looked impressive in their recent games.
The Braves have moved to second place in the NL East but their pitching remains shaky. Touissant has been mediocre at home and the likes of Joey Votto and Jesse Winker will lead the Reds offense is forcing the 25-year old out early.
Miley continues to pitch well and he has a sub 3.00 ERA on the road this season. He should be able to produce five to six good innings before turning the ball over to the bullpen with a decent lead.
I like the value of the Reds in this one.
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds +102
The over is 15-5-3 in Cincinnati’s last 23 games played. The total has gone over in 8 out of their last 12 games against right-handers. The over is also 3-0-1 in their last four Game 2 of a series, 6-0-2 in their last eight road games against an opponent with a winning record,36-12-4 in their last 52 Wednesday games, and 4-1-3 in their last eight games on the road.
The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by the Braves. The over is also 4-1 in their last five games on grass, 8-2 in their last 10 games against a left-handed starter, 3-1-1 in their last five Game 2 of a series, 4-1 in their last five home games against a left-handed starter, and 5-2 in their last seven Wednesday games.
Miley’s doing well this season but for all his good work, he’s been involved in some track meets lately. The over is 6-3-1 in his last 10 starts with the total hitting an average of 9.8 runs per game during that span. Cincinnati’s bats have done plenty of heavy lifting in his last nine starts, putting up an average of 6.11 runs per game.
Cincinnati also ranks 5th in the majors in scoring at 5.01 runs per game while Atlanta is 4th overall when it comes to scoring on the road at 5.25 runs per outing at Truist Park With Touissant’s home struggles this season and the over hitting in his last two starts, I think this will be a high-scoring game where we’ll see a combined double-digit runs.
Give me the over.
Prediction: Over 9.5
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