Blake Daniels, September 1, 2022

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The Colorado Rockies and Atlanta Braves close their three-game set on Thursday at Truist Park.

Colorado stunned Atlanta 3-2 in Game 1 of this series but the Braves bounced back on Wednesday to take Game 2 also with a 3-2 score. Atlanta still leads their season series 5-1.

The Rockies are 56-75 on the season and are at the bottom of the NL West Division team standings, 35 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. Colorado is 4-6 in their last 10 games played. Meanwhile, the Braves are 80-51 on the year and are chasing the New York Mets in the NL East Division team standings. As of Wednesday’s games, the Braves are just 3 games behind the Mets. Atlanta is 6-4 in their last 10 games played.

Colorado Rockies

Colorado’s offense away from home is one of the worst in baseball. The Rockies are scoring just 3.08 away from home, 2.6 runs less than their average when playing at home. They have also been terrible on the mound as their pitching staff ranks in the bottom 5 in ERA and WHIP.

Chad Kuhl will open for the Rockies in Thursday’s rubber match. The 29-year-old right-hander is 6-7 with an ERA of 5.17 and a WHIP of 1.51 in 21starts this season. Kuhl has pitched in a total of 108.0 innings with 62 earned runs allowed while striking out 80 and walking 47. Kuhl allowed three earned runs on five hits in five innings pitched in a no-decision against the Mets. The Rockies have lost in each of his last four starts.

C.J. Cron has 26 doubles, three triples, 24 home runs, and 86 RBIs. Randal Grichuk is 15-38 with two doubles, one home run, and two RBIs over his last 10 games played. The injury to Kris Bryant has not helped the Rockies as he’s played only 42 games this season and will miss this game with a foot injury.

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta ranks 3rd in MLB in scoring at 4.95 runs per game scored and has the 8th best team batting average at .253. The Braves are currently three games behind the New York Mets in the NL East division and they are 43-25 when playing at their home field this season.

For the Braves, it will be Spencer Strider who will start on top of the Hill in Game 3. The 23-year-old right-hander is 8-4 with an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 1.03 this season in a total of 27 appearances including 16 starts. Strider has conceded 34 earned runs on 72 hits in 106.2 innings pitched. He has a K: BB ratio of 158:38.

Strider allowed one run on six hits in six innings pitched during his last start, an 11-4 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Braves are 5-1 in his last six starts.

Matt Olson has 41 doubles, 27 home runs, and 87 RBIs while hitting .250 for the Braves. Michael Haris II is 13-35 with six doubles and one home run over the last 10 games. Austin Riley is hitting .228 and 31 home runs with 83 RBIs.

Rockies vs Braves Betting Prediction

The Rockies are 1-4 in their last five games played against the Braves. Colorado is 16-5 in their last 21 games played in Atlanta.

Colorado Rockies betting trends:

• Rockies are 2-5 in their last seven games played.
• Rockies are 16-41 in their last 57 road games.
• Rockies are 35-78 in their last 113 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Rockies are 32-75 in their last 107 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Rockies are 3-8 in their last 11 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Rockies are 8-22 in their last 30 versus National League East.
• Rockies are 25-69 in their last 94 road games against a right-handed starter.
• Rockies are 2-6 in their last 8 versus a team with a winning record.
• Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Rockies are 6-26 in their last 32 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Rockies are 6-26 in their last 32 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Rockies are 0-4 in their last four Game 4s of a series.

Atlanta Braves betting trends:

• Braves are 56-24 in their last 80 overall.
• Braves are 36-17 in their last 53 home games.
• Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
• Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Braves are 41-10 in their last 51 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Braves are 17-5 in their last 22 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Braves are 20-6 in their last 26 home games against a team with a losing record.
• Braves are 12-4 in their last 16 versus the National League West.
• Braves are 20-8 in their last 28 home games versus a right-handed starter.
• Braves are 55-22 in their last 77 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Braves are 47-20 in their last 67 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Braves are 56-24 in their last 80 games on grass.
• Braves are 16-7 in their last 23 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Braves are 37-17 in their last 54 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Strider will bring a 2.87 ERA and a WHIP of 1.03 to Thursday’s game. He is coming off a start against the Cardinals where he allowed only one run with seven strike outs in six innings pitched. Meanwhile, Kuhl has struggled as of late and has allowed 17 earned runs over 13.2 innings across three starts.

The Rockies aren’t going to the postseason after a tough campaign. Entering this game, they are in the bottom 5 in team ERA and WHIP while allowing the most runs per game in all of baseball. Colorado has dropped seven of nine away from home and 10 of 15 overall. That’s not going to work against a Braves team still trying to catch the Mets in their division by three games. The Braves are the better team. They are the team that is playing much better right now. And they are the team that needs this win more.

Prediction: Atlanta Braves

Rockies vs Braves Over/Under Prediction

The under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The total has gone under in three out of their last five games played in Atlanta with one push.

Colorado Rockies over/under trends:

• Under is 4-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 overall.
• Under is 4-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 road games.
• Under is 4-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 on grass.
• Under is 4-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 against a team with a winning record.
• Under is 4-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 4-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 8-2 in the Rockies’ last 10 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 5-1 in the Rockies’ last 6 games versus the National League East.
• Over is 5-1 in the Rockies’ last 6 Thursday games.
• Over is 4-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Atlanta Braves over/under trends:

• Over is 4-1 in the Braves’ last 5 overall.
• Over is 8-1-2 in the Braves’ last 11 Game 3s of a series.
• Over is 4-1 in the Braves’ last 5 on grass.
• Over is 4-1 in the Braves’ last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 6-2-1 in the Braves’ last 9 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Braves’ last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 5-2 in the Braves’ last 7 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 9-4-2 in the Braves’ last 15 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Under is 4-2 in the Braves’ last six games played in September.
• Under is 7-0 in the Braves’ last 7 games against National League West.
• Under is 4-0 in the Braves’ last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 4-0 in the Braves’ last 4 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 6-1 in the Braves’ last 7 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Under is 5-1-2 in the Braves’ last 8 versus a team with a losing record.
• Under is 8-2 in the Braves’ last 10 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 17-7 in the Braves’ last 24 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

These teams have combined to score an average of 9.4 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 8.33 runs per game in their most recent three encounters.

Chad Kuhl did well in his last outing, allowing three runs on five hits over five innings of work in a no-decision against the Mets. However, he carries a 5.17 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP against this impressive Braves lineup. Although he has been a serviceable starter this season, he is going to have a hard time holding down this Atlanta team that will be playing at their home field.

The total has gone over in four out of the Braves’ last five games and our out of their last six games against opponents from the National League. I’ll take the over any day under these circumstances.

Prediction: Over 8