The San Antonio Spurs head to the Smoothie King Center on Wednesday to take on the New Orleans Pelicans in a do-or-die play-in tournament game.
San Antonio finished 10th in the Western Conference with a dismal 34-48 SU record. The Spurs closed out the season with a 6-4 SU record despite losing their final three regular-season assignments. San Antonio lost to the Dallas Mavericks 130-120 in their final regular season game but that was a no-bearing contest as they had already clinched the 10th seed in the West.
New Orleans was just slightly better than San Antonio with their 36-46 SU record. The Pelicans made it to the 9th seed despite not having Zion Williamson the entire season. New Orleans started the season with one win in their first 12 games but recovered midseason and improved after acquiring C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. New Orleans finished the regular season with a 6-4 SU mark but dropped their final two assignments including a 129-107 defeat to the Golden State Warriors last Sunday.
The Spurs dropped their final three regular season assignments, including a 130-120 loss to the Dallas Mavericks last Sunday. Keldon Johnson continued his hot streak with 24 points to lead the Spurs while All-Star guard Dejounte Murray finished with 17 points and 6 assists. Jakob Poeltl put up a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds while veteran Josh Richardson added 18 off the bench.
San Antonio was the 8th best scoring team during the regular season at 113.2 points per game. The Spurs shot 46.7% from the floor and 35.2% from behind the three-point arc. Dejounte Murray led San Antonio in scoring at 21.1 points per game while Keldon Johnson averaged 17 points per game. The Spurs also ranked second in passing at 27.2 assists per game, led by Murray’s 9.2 dimes per contest.
Defensively, the Spurs ranked only 23rd in scoring defense at 113.0 points per game allowed. San Antonio’s opponents shot 46.6% from the field and 36.0% from deep, both ranking in the bottom half of the league. Jakob Poeltl leads the Spurs in rebounding at 9.2 boards grabbed per contest and blocked shots at 1.7 swats per game.
New Orleans also closed out the season on a losing streak. The Pelicans lost their final two assignments and were blown out by the Golden State Warriors 128-107 last Sunday in their season finale. Naji Marshall scored 19 points to pace the Pelicans while Trey Murphy III added 15. Meanwhile, Gary Clark came off the bench to put up 17 markers while also grabbing six rebounds.
The Pelicans finished the regular season ranked 21st in scoring at 109.3 points per game. They shot the ball at a 45.7% clip and made only 33.2 % of their three-point attempts. McCollum led the team in scoring at 24.3 points per game while Brandon Ingram also put up 22.7 points per contest. McCollum and Ingram are also the team’s top passers at 5.8 and 5.2 assists per game. The Pels are 13th in passing at 25.0 assists per game.
On defense, New Orleans is among the top half in the league at 13th with their 110.3 points per game allowed. The Pelicans allow their opponents to shoot 47.1% from the field and 36.5% from behind the three-point arc. Jonas Valanciunas leads the Pelicans with 11.4 rebounds per game while Herbert Jones is the steals leader at 1.7 thefts per game.
The Spurs are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. San Antonio is 4-2 SU in their last six road games and 13-13 SU in 26 road games against the Eastern Conference.
The Pelicans are also 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. New Orleans is 3-2 SU in their last five games played at home, 12-14 SU in 26 home games against the Western Conference, and 4-13 SU in their last 17 Wednesday games.
Head to head, San Antonio Spurs are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against the New Orleans Pelicans.
New Orleans has done a remarkable job coming back from a 1-12 start and playing without Zion Williamson for the entire season. Credit goes to Brandon Ingram who carried the team early on. The trade to bring C.J. McCollum has also done wonders for the Pelicans as they have made it to the play-in tournament as the ninth seed. However, they will have their hands full against a Gregg Popovich-coached team that is oozing with confidence after a strong finish, despite losing their final three assignments.
Dejounte Murray is having an All-Star season while Keldon Johnson finished strong by averaging over 20 points in the Spurs’ final 10 contests. Lonnie Walker IV is also putting up 15.3 points since the All-Star break but has been bothered by a sore back since mid-March and is out for this game. Still, Gregg Popovich is a master of making the most out of his roster and should be able to make the adjustments here.
The Spurs beat the Pelicans in their two games in New Orleans during the regular season so there’s no question they can win in this venue. With Ingram and McCollum playing hurt, the Spurs could take advantage by imposing their offense. Unless both Pelicans’ top scorers are 100%, I like the value on the Spurs at plus money odds.
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games played. San Antonio is 5-0 ATS in their last five games when allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 6-0 ATS in their last six games after an ATS win, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after a straight up loss, 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as betting underdogs, 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs, 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games against an opponent with a losing home record, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a losing straight up record, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games when playing in two days rest, 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game, and 6-0 ATS in their last six games when scoring 100 or more points in their previous game.
The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after an ATS loss, 5-1 ATS in their last six games after a straight up defeat, 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites, 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days rest, 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against an opponent with a losing road record, 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as betting favorites, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent with a losing straight up record.
Head to head, the Spurs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games played against the Pelicans. San Antonio is also 7-0 ATS in their last seven games played in New Orleans.
The Spurs have flown under the radar during the final two weeks of the season. San Antonio has covered the spread in 9 out of their last 10 games played including their last seven. They upped their defensive effort during that period and rank among the league’s best during that span.
Keldon Johnson averaged over 20 points per game in his last 10 games played. With Dejounte Murray among the best points guards in the league, the Spurs have a 1-2 punch that will enable them to keep up with the Pelicans.
I like the Pelicans in this matchup but with their top two players in McCollum and Ingram banged up right now, I can’t trust them to be 100% in this game. That said, the Spurs are peaking at the right time and although they may not have the lineup to beat teams like the Suns or Warriors in a seven-game series, they surely can pull off surprises in a do-or-die game.
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs +5
The total has gone under in 12 out of the last 18 games played by the Spurs. The under is 12-6 in their last 18 games against the Western Conference, 6-1 in their last seven games against an opponent with a losing straight up record, 7-2 in their last nine games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, 6-2 in their last 8 Wednesday games, 18-7 in their last 25 games after an ATS win, 5-2 in their last seven games as betting underdogs, and 7-3 in their last 10 games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game.
The total has gone under in 9 out of the last 13 games played by the Pelicans. The under is 7-1 in their last eight games when playing on two days’ rest, 6-1 in their last seven games against an opponent with a losing straight up record, 8-2 in their last 10 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five games as betting favorites, 9-4 in their last 13 games when scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 7-3 when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, and 17-8 in their last 25 home games against an opponent with a losing road record.
Head to head, the total has gone under in seven out of the last nine meetings between these two teams. The under is also 4-1 in the last five meetings in New Orleans.
These teams have combined to score an average of 220.8 points per game in their last 10 meetings, and 221 points per game in their most recent three encounters. Just last March 26th, these teams combined for only 210 points. And 215 points last March 18th.
The Spurs rank in the Top 10 in the league in scoring but the Pelicans won’t be good dance partners as they are in the Bottom 10 in putting up points on the scoreboard. New Orleans’ top scorers Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum are also dealing with injuries and although they will suit up for this game, you can’t be guaranteed that they are at 100% strength.
Sure, San Antonio’s defense ranks in the Bottom 10 in the league but New Orleans ranks in the Bottom 10 in Field goals and three-point shooting. The Pelicans also are a good defensive team as they are ranked in the upper half in scoring defense so they should be able to limit the Spurs’ offense.
I can go on and make more arguments for the under. But I’ve stated the obvious and the key reasons why I’m going under 226 points for this game.
Prediction: Under 226
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