Blake Daniels, August 22, 2022

0 COMMENTS

The St. Louis Cardinals visit the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Game 1 of a five-game series between these rivals.

St. Louis is 69-51 on the season and they currently hold a five-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central Division. The Cardinals are 8-2 in their last 10 games played and have won seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Cubs are in third place but are a far 17 games off the Cardinals’ pace. The Cubs are also 13.5 games off the wild card pace. Chicago is also a good 7-3 in their last 10 games played.

The Cardinals lead their season series 7-4 with the Cubs unable to take a series from the Cardinals since 2017.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are playing well right now and they have taken control of the NL Central Division while keeping the Milwaukee Brewers at bay. St. Louis swept the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks in their previous two series played. They are 68-52 on the run line and the over/under is 57-59-4 this season.

St. Louis ranks 4th in scoring at 4.87 runs per game. They are led by MVP favorite Paul Goldschmidt who has 31 home runs and 100 RBIs on the season. Nolan Arenado is also among the MVP favorites with 25 home runs and 78 RBI.

Jordan Montgomery will make his 25th start of the season for the Cardinals. The 29-year-old is 6-3 with an ERA of 3.29 in a total of 131.1 innings pitched this season. Montgomery has looked great since joining the Cardinals and is coming off a win against the Rockies n a game where he pitched for 5.2 innings while allowing only one run on six hits with no walks and eight strikeouts.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have been playing good baseball as of late but were unable to complete a sweep of the struggling Milwaukee Brewers the last time out. Chicago is 62-58 on the run line and has an over/under record of 52-59-9 on the year. They are double-digit wins behind the division lead and wild card race.

Chicago has a bottom 10 offense at only 4.21 runs per game scored. Its pitching staff has an ERA of 4.21, including 3.98 from the bullpen. Wilson Contreras is Chicago’s top hitter with an OPS of .835 with 20 home runs and 52 RBIs. Nico Hoerner also has a 3.5 WAR with 39 RBIs and 38 runs scored.

Drew Smyly will make his 17th start for the Cubs. Smyly is 5-6 with an ERA of 3.67 in a total of 76 innings pitched. He went 5.1 innings against the Washington Nationals last Wednesday and allowed two runs on four hits and no walks with four strikeouts. Chicago has won in each of his last three starts with Smyly picking up the win in two of those games.

Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Prediction

The Cardinals are 4-1 In their last five games played against the Cubs. St. Louis is also 8-2 in their last 10 road games in Chicago.

The St. Louis Cardinals are:

• 21-7 in their last 28 overall.
• 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
• 5-0 in their last 5 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win.
• 6-1 in their last 7 Game 1s of a series.
• 18-3 in their last 21 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 13-3 in their last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 4-1 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 20-6 in their last 26 games on grass.
• 18-6 in their last 24 road games against a left-handed starter.
• 33-13 in their last 46 road games versus a team with a losing record.
• 25-10 in their last 35 games against a team with a losing record.
• 37-16 in their last 53 Monday games.
• 23-10 in their last 33 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 43-20 in their last 63 games against the National League Central.
• 37-18 in their last 55 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 41-20 in their last 61 games versus a left-handed starter.
• 2-6 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Chicago Cubs are:

• 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
• 9-3 in their last 12 home games.
• 5-1 in their last 6 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 5-1 in their last 6 Game 1s of a series.
• 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
• 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss.
• 4-1 in their last 5 versus the National League Central.
• 4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 6-2 in their last 8 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 5-2 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 7-3 in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record.
• 4-9 in their last 13 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 21-48 in their last 69 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 15-37 in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
• 21-62 in their last 83 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• 2-6 in their last 8 Monday games.
• 3-10 in their last 13 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 0-5 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 0-7 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Montgomery has looked great since getting traded to the Cardinals and has allowed only one earned run in his last three starts. He is also 2-0 against the Cardinals, giving up only three runs in those two games.

Chicago’s bullpen had a breakdown last Sunday and is currently ranked well below the league average in almost every statistic. Smyly has done a decent job recently, allowing only nine runs in his last five starts. However, he has struggled against St. Louis and will struggle again in this game.

No question, the Cubs have played well since the All-Star break. However, the Cardinals are surging and Montgomery has found success with his new team. I just don’t think Chicago is good enough offensively to keep up with the Cardinals’ bats and their bullpen is too unreliable to take them in this game.

Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in five out of the last seven meetings between these two teams. The over is 6-3 in their last nine head-to-head games played in Chicago.

St. Louis Cardinals over/under trends:

• Over is 5-2 in the Cardinals’ last 7 games played overall.
• Over is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last 6 road games.
• Over is 7-1 in the Cardinals’ last 8 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last 6 road games versus a team with a losing record.
• Over is 8-2 in the Cardinals’ last 10 games against. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 5-2 in the Cardinals’ last 7 games played on grass.
• Over is 7-3 in the Cardinals’ last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 7-3 in the Cardinals’ last 10 games following a win.
• Under is 4-1-2 in the Cardinals’ last 7 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Under is 7-2-2 in the Cardinals’ last 11 road games versus a left-handed starter.
• Under is 6-2 in the Cardinals’ last 8 games against the National League Central.
• Under is 9-3 in the Cardinals’ last 12 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 13-5 in the Cardinals’ last 18 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 13-5 in the Cardinals’ last 18 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 5-2 in the Cardinals’ last 7 Game 1s of a series.
• Under is 5-2 in the Cardinals’ last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 7-3 in the Cardinals’ last 10 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 13-6-2 in the Cardinals’ last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Chicago Cubs over/under trends:

• Over is 5-2-2 in the Cubs’ last 9 overall.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 6 home games.
• Over is 3-0-2 in the Cubs’ last 5 games against the National League Central.
• Over is 4-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 4-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 10-3-1 in the Cubs’ last 14 home games against a left-handed starter.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 games versus a team with a winning record.
• Over is 5-2-2 in the Cubs’ last 9 games on grass.
• Under is 4-0 in the Cubs’ last 4 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Under is 6-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 9-4 in the Cubs’ last 13 games against a left-handed starter.
• Under is 6-2-2 in the Cubs’ last 10 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 11-4-1 in the Cubs’ last 16 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

The Cardinals have allowed 4.57 runs per game on the road this season but are giving up only 0.66 runs per game in the game where Montgomery has pitched. Montgomery is a terrific contact pitcher who is now playing for a good defensive team in the Cardinals.

Chicago has scored only an average of 2.88 runs per game in their last three games played against the Cardinals. The Cubs have posted a below-average 99 wRC+ this season and aren’t good enough to do much offensively in this game. Smyly has been solid enough with an 89 ERA- as he continues to show good control

These teams have combined to score only 7.33 runs per game in their last three head-to-head meetings. With both pitchers throwing well right now, this should be another low-scoring game between these two teams.

Prediction: Under 8