Blake Daniels, November 14, 2022

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The Miami Heat look to win their third in a row as they host the Phoenix Sun on Monday night.

Miami beat the Charlotte Hornets twice in their two-game set here at the FTX Arena last week. After a narrow five-point win in Game 1, the Heat blew the Hornets out by 15 points to improve to 6-7 on the season. The Heat are 3rd in the Southeast Division but are just two games off the leaders Atlanta but are just 12th in the entire

Phoenix is 8-4 SU on the year and they are 1.5 games ahead of the L.A. Clippers in the Pacific Division. The Suns were off to a strong start but are just 2-3 SU in their last five games played with losses in their last two. Phoenix is 4th in the Early Western Conference team standings.

The Suns have won four out of the last five head-to-head meetings between these two teams. However, these teams split their two meetings last season.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns have been in a funk as of late as they have dropped three out of their last five games played overall and are coming off a humiliating road loss to the lowly Orlando Magic 114-97 last Friday.

Cameron Payne led the Suns with 22 points on 8-15 shooting while Devin Booker added 17 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists, and Deandre Ayton chipped in 14 points. Mikal Bridges scored only 8 on 3-13 shooting with no bench player scoring more than 7 points for the Suns.

Phoenix shot just 40% from the field and 13-42 from behind the three-point arc as they struggled to match the intensity of the Magic. They fell behind big early on and couldn’t get out of the hole with a sputtering offensive game.

The Suns are scoring 112.5 points per game this season. Phoenix is also grabbing 40.8 boards per contest and issuing 27.5 assists per contest.

Miami Heat

The Heat have looked good as of late as they have won four out of their last six games played, including their last two. On Saturday, the Heat routed the Charlotte Hornets 132-115.

Max Strus hit 8 three-pointers while finishing with 31 points on 10-16 shooting. Bam Adebayo added 24 points while Jimmy Butler had 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists. Kyle Lowry also contributed 12 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists.

Miami shot 52% from the field and was 16-41 from behind the three-point territory. Charlotte kept pace with the Heat early on and matched Miami’s firepower. However, the Heat exploded with a 45-point third period to pull away from the Hornets.

The Heat are putting up just 110.5 points per game this season and pulling down 40.5 boards per contest. They are also issuing just 25.0 assists per game this season.

Suns vs Heat SU Prediction

The Suns are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the Heat. Phoenix is also 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played in Miami.

Phoenix Suns SU trends:

• The Suns are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Suns are 2-3 SU in their 5 road games played this season.
• The Suns are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the Southeast Division.
• The Suns are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games played in November.

Miami Heat SU trends:

• The Heat are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Heat are 4-2 SU in their last 6 home games played.
• The Heat are 2-4 SU in their last 6 Monday games.
• The Heat are 3-2 U in their last five games as betting favorites against the Western Conference.

Miami is just 5-5 in their last 10 games played but are 4-2 SU in their last 6. The Heat are scoring 111.3 points per game over their last 10 games played, while allowing just 109.2 points per game during that span. Meanwhile, the Suns are 7-3 SU during the same period. Phoenix is scoring 113.2 points per game while conceding only 104.8 points per game this season.

The Heat will be without Victor Oladipo and Omer Yurtseven. Tyler Herro and Dewayne Dedmon have been listed as questionable. On the Suns’ side, Cam Johnson and Landry Shamet are out of commission while Chris Paul and Ish Wainright are listed as day-to-day.

Devin Booker is the 10th leading scorer in the NBA 26.7 points per game this season. D-Book is also issuing 5.6 assists per game for the Suns while Mikal Bridges is putting up 15.7 points per game in his last 10 assignments.

For Miami, Jimmy Butler is putting up 18.7 points per game and shooting 48.7% from the field over the Heat’s last 10 games played. For the season, Butler is averaging 22.1 points and 6 rebounds to lead Miami while Bam Adebayo is contributing 18.2 points per game on a team-high 53.4% from the floor.

We’ve got a Phoenix team here that started very well this season but have struggled as of late due to injuries. Meanwhile, the Heat are 4-2 SU in their last six games played and have scored at least 110 points in four out of their last 6 games played.

Suns vs Heat ATS Prediction

The Suns are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games played against the Heat. Phoenix is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played in Miami.

Phoenix Suns ATS trends:

• The Suns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• The Suns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
• The Suns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Suns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Suns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Suns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.
• The Suns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.

Miami Heat ATS trends:

• The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.
• The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Heat are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Heat are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight-up win.
• The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
• The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.

Phoenix is still without Landry Shamet and Cam Johnson while Chris Paul is questionable. Meanwhile, Miami has listed both Tyler Herro and Dewayne Dedmon as questionable for Monday’s game. The Suns’ confidence may be shaken after their unexpected loss to the Orlando Magic last Friday but they could also be raring to get back to the winners’ circle.

The Heat have covered only twice in their last dozen home game and are winless against the betting spread in six consecutive games against an opponent with a winning record. However, Miami has been playing well as of late and looks to be in better shape than Phoenix.

The Suns are playing in their first game since Friday and this is also the 4th and final game of their current road trip. Phoenix could be road-weary here and given their injuries, they are in a tough position against a Heat team playing well right now.

This marks only the second time this season that the Suns have entered a game as a betting underdog and they have won the only other time. Meanwhile, the Heat are 6-5 in games where they are favorites and are just 5-5 when listed as underdogs of -125 or better.

Prediction: Heat -1.5

Suns vs Heat Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in 7 out of the last 10 games played between these two teams.

Phoenix Suns over/under trends:

• The under is 7-1 in the Suns’ last 8 road games.
• The under is 5-1 in the Suns’ last 6 overall.
• The under is 4-1 in the Suns’ last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Suns’ last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 10-3 in the Suns’ last 13 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 14-5 in the Suns’ last 19 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The under is 20-8-2 in the Suns’ last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The over is 7-3 in the Suns’ last 10 vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The under is 35-16-1 in the Suns’ last 52 games following a straight-up loss.

Miami Heat over/under trends:

• The over is 7-6 in Miami’s 13 games played this season.
• The over is 5-4 in Miami’s 9 home games played this season.
• The over is 15-6-1 in the Heat’s last 22 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The over is 45-22 in the Heat’s last 67 home games against a team with a losing road record.
• The over is 11-3 in the Heat’s last 14 games played against the Pacific Division.
• The over is 13-6 in Miami’s last 19 games played in November.
• The under is 8-3 in the Heat’s last 11 against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

Injuries have hampered the Suns’ offense. Phoenix has scored more than 106 points only once in their last 5 games played. If Chris Paul is a no-go here, then there will be plenty of pressure on Devin Booker to deliver on offense. If that’s the case, the advantage goes to Miami because the Heat are a good defensive team and they have young and lengthy players who can help contain booker and let the other Suns beat them.

Meanwhile, the suns are the no. 1 defensive team in the NBA. That’s why despite their sputtering offense, they have been able to find success this year. The Phoenix defense should be able to keep the game close and limit Miami’s scoring. The Suns are also just 27th in pace so I expect this to be a low-scoring game that should see the teams go below the total.

Prediction: Under 217