Blake Daniels, October 6, 2022

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The Houston Texans travel to the TIAA Bank Field to visit the Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC South Division showdown.

The Texans are winless in four games at 0-3-1 SU on the season. They opened the season with a 20-20 tie against the Indianapolis Colts but have lost their last three games, with their offense scoring just 53 total points during that span. Last Week, the Texans scored 17 second-half points but could not overcome the early deficit against the Chargers.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 2-2 SU on the season and are tied with the Tennessee Titans for the early division lead. Jacksonville is the new betting favorite to win the AFC South and this team has found a new identity with a new head coach. Trevor Lawrence has looked good except for last week when they played in bad weather and lost to the Eagles 29-21. Despite the loss, Jacksonville led the game 14-0 early, or before the rain began to pour.

Houston Texans

The Texans are winless after four weeks but if you look close enough, they haven’t really played that bad. Houston has been competitive in each game they have played this year, with none of their games decided by more than 10 points. Unfortunately for them, they have not been able to make the big plays that win games.

Their defense has allowed just 23.3 points per game this season but the offense has been as effective, scoring just 18.3 per contest. Davis Mills is averaging just 6.4 yards per pass and has thrown almost as many TDs as INTs. at 5 and 4, respectively. Mills’ QBR is also a horrendous 28.5 as the former Stanford product has struggled so far this year.

Davis Mills has completed 88-142 passes for 908 yards with a TD: INT of 5:4. Dameon Pierce has 313 rushing yards with 2 TDs on 60 carries while Brandin Cooks leads the Texans with 215 receiving yards with 1 TD on 20 catches.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars looked like they were ready to shock the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles last week when they raced to a 14-0 lead. However, rain poured and the weather change also changed the complexion of the game. The Eagles rallied and went on to beat the Jaguars 29-21. Trevor Lawrence became the first QB this century to lose four fumbles in a game.

Despite the loss, Jacksonville looks like one of the most improved teams in the league this season. Their defense ranks 4th and is allowing opponents to score just 16.8 points per game. Devin Lloyd and Travon Walker have made last season’s solid defense even better. The offense has also looked more fluid this season with the Jaguars giving Lawrence a better offensive line to work with.

Lawrence has completed 88-134 passes for 946 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs. James Robinson leads Jacksonville with 259 rushing yards on 59 carries with 3 TD runs while Christian Kirk has caught 20 passes for 327 yards with 3 TD grabs.

Who Wins?

The Texans are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Jaguars. Houston is also 6-1 SU in their last six-road game against Jacksonville.

Houston Texans SU trends:

• Houston is 0-6-1 SU in their last seven games played.
• Houston is 2-10 SU in their last 12 games played on the road.
• Houston is 3-6-1 SU in their last 10 games played against the AFC.
• Houston is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the AFC South Division.

Jacksonville Jaguars SU trends:

• Jacksonville is 3-10 SU in their last 10 games played.
• Jacksonville is 4-3 SU in their last 7 games played at home.
• Jacksonville is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games against the AFC South Division.
• Jacksonville is 3-0 SU in their last 3 games played against the AFC.

Houston dropped to 0-3-1 after losing to the Los Angeles Chargers 34-24 last week. Despite suffering another defeat, Houston played a good second half where they put up 17 points. Unfortunately, that strong effort wasn’t enough to overcome the Chargers’ early lead.

Davis Mills completed 26 of 35 passes for 246 passing yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Dameon Pierce delivered the biggest offensive play of the game as he recorded a 75-yard TD run, part of his 131 rushing yards on 14 carries in the game.

The Texans’ defense allowed 34 points last weekend but looked good enough in forcing two turnovers. That defense will need to keep that kind of effort if Houston wants to pick up its first win of the season.

The Jaguars started well against the Eagles and opened with a 14-0 lead. Then they suddenly looked flat and allowed Philadelphia to beat them 29-21.

The offensive line had to take some of the blame as quarterback Trevor Lawrence was sacked four times and pressured on too many occasions. With defenders all over him, Lawrence was able to complete just 11 of 23 passes for 174 passing yards with 2 TD passes and one INT, easily his worst game of the young season.

But Lawrence and the offense had to battle the bad weather in Philly, which was of course a factor in why they lost. There will be no such issues with the weather on Sunday and the Jaguars should look better, especially since they will be at home.

The Texans need to put Lawrence under the same duress that the Eagles did last weekend. If they can do that, they will have a shot not just at covering the spread but also winning outright. Personally, I don’t see that happening though. What I foresee is Jacksonville keeping Lawrence on his feet so he can weave his magic. Lawrence couldn’t play much worse than last week. I expect a bounce-back game from him on Sunday.

Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars

Texans vs Jaguars ATS Prediction

The Texans are 4-1 ATS in the last five games played between these two teams. Houston is also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Jacksonville. The underdog is also 5-1 ATS in the last six games played between the Texans and Jaguars.

Houston Texans ATS trends:

• The Texans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played against the AFC.
• The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus the AFC South.
• The Texans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• The Texans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Texans are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Texans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in October.
• The Texans are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 5.

Jacksonville Jaguars ATS trends:

• The Jaguars are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• The Jaguars are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Jaguars are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Jaguars are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games in October.
• The Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss.
• The Jaguars are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
• The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS versus a team with a losing record.
• The Jaguars are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 5.

Trevor Lawrence struggled last week after the rain started to pour just as the Jaguars took a 14-0 lead. That kind of weather condition isn’t expected on Sunday nor will the Jacksonville running game face an equally tough run defense in Houston. Take away the bad weather and Lawrence has looked comfortable playing behind a revamped offensive line. He should have a bounce-back game on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Davis Mills continues to struggle for Houston and it’s not just Mills’ fault because he doesn’t have too many weapons to work with right now. The Texans’ offense should have troubles against a Jacksonville defense that has looked good during the first month of the season.

Prediction: Jaguars -7

Texans vs Jaguars Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in each of the last three games played between the Texans and Jaguars. The over is also 5-2 in their last five games played in Jacksonville.

Houston Texans over/under trends:

• Over is 8-1 in the Texans’ last 9 games played overall.
• Over is 5-0 in the Texans’ last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• Over is 5-2 in the Texans’ last 7 games in Week 5.
• Over is 23-11 in the Texans’ last 34 games in October.
• Under is 5-1 in the Texans’ last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Under is 7-2 in the Texans’ last 9 road games.
• Under is 5-2 in the Texans’ last 7 games on grass.

Jacksonville Jaguars over/under trends:

• Over is 6-2 in the Jaguars’ last 8 games overall.
• Over is 13-6 in the Jaguars’ last 19 games in Week 5.
• Over is 5-0 in the Jaguars’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 8-1 in the Jaguars’ last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 6-1 in the Jaguars’ last 7 home games.
• Under is 4-1 in the Jaguars’ last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in the Jaguars’ last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in the Jaguars’ last 5 versus the AFC South.
• Under is 7-2 in the Jaguars’ last 9 against a team with a losing record.
• Under is 11-4 in the Jaguars’ last 15 games following an ATS loss.
• Under is 12-5 in the Jaguars’ last 17 games following a straight-up loss.
• Under is 4-0 in the Jaguars’ last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

The Texans’ offense is struggling right now at just 18.3 points per game. They will be facing a Jacksonville defense that is 4th-best in the league. The Jaguars drafted two defensive players in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft in Walker and Lloyd. The two should be effective starters for a long time, making this Jacksonville defense solid at all levels.

Houston’s Davis Mills is good but he is still young and still has plenty to learn. Jacksonville should have no issues pressuring him or stopping the Texans’ rushing attack.

The Jaguars are scoring 26.3 points per game but once they take the early lead here, I don’t think they will need to score plenty of points to win the game. I think Jacksonville gets off to a fast start then lets its defense finish the job.

Prediction: Under 43