Blake Daniels, November 15, 2022

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The Tennessee Titans look to improve on their 6-3 SU start when they visit the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Thursday night.

Tennessee is bounced back from a three-point loss to the Kansas City Chiefs with a 17-10 win over the Denver Broncos in their last outing. The Titans are currently the no. 1 ranked team in the AFC South and currently lead the division standings by 1.5 games. Tennessee has lost just once in its previous seven games played.

Green Bay snapped its five-game losing skid when it defeated the Dallas Cowboys 31-28 in overtime last weekend. The Packers are just 4-6 SU this season but are still in second place in the NFC North Division. However, Green Bay trails division-leading Minnesota by a large 4.5-game margin.

The Packers have beaten the Titans twice in their last three meetings, including a 40-14 home win last December 27, 2020, in what stands as the last head-to-head meeting between these two teams.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans rank last in the league in total yards at only 281.7 yards per game but have the 9th best rushing attack in the NFL at 133.2 yards per contest. Derrick Henry is having another strong season with already 923 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns this season. Henry is averaging 102.6 rushing yards per game this season and although he rushed for only 53 yards against Denver last weekend, he rushed for over 100 yards in the four previous games. Robert Woods has caught 266 yards on 24 catches with 1 touchdown catch. Ryan Tannehill has passed for 1,352 yards with 8 TDS and a QBR of 49.2

Tennessee’s defense ranks 23rd in the NFL with an average of 357.7 yards per game but they are 8th in scoring defense at only 18.7 points per game allowed this year. The Titans’ rush defense is conceding only 85.1 yards per game this season. Linebacker David Long Jr. leads the team in 71 tackles for the Titans. Denico Autry leads Tennessee with 7.0 sacks this year. Long is also the team leader in interceptions with 2.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are just 24th in the league in scoring at only 18.5 points per game this season. They are picking up 129.3 rushing yards and 223.0 passing yards per game, 12th and 16th overall respectively. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 2,315 passing yards with 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Aaron Jones leads the Green Bay rush attack with 738 rushing yards and two touchdowns, and Allen Lazard leads the Packers with 472 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Christian Walker is coming off a game where he had 107 receiving yards on 8 catches with three TD grabs.

Although the Green Bay Packers are allowing 21.6 points per game this season, they rank 9th in the NFL at 320.3 yards per game given up. However, the Packers are allowing too much yardage on the ground at 140.6 yards per game, which is 26th overall. That could be an issue against a Tennessee team that is led by Derrick Henry. Linebacker Quay Walker leads the team with 70 tackles. Rashan Gary is the leader in quarterback sacks at 6.0 while Jaire Alexander leads the team with three interceptions.

Titans vs Packers  SU Prediction

The Titans are 4-3 SU in their last 7 games played against the Packers. Tennessee is 1-3 SU in their last four games played in Green Bay.

Tennessee Titans SU trends:

• The Titans are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played.
• The Titans are 3-2 SU in their last 5 games played on the road.
• The Titans are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played against the NFC.
• The Titans are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the NFC North Division.

Green Bay Packers SU trends:

• The Packers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Packers are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games played at home.
• The Packers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the AFC South Division.
• The Packers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 November games.

The Packers are just 24th in scoring at 18.5 points per game and 16th in passing offense at 223.0 yards per game this season. The Green Bay offense is banged up right now and they have a pair of wide receivers in Romeo Doubs and Randall Cobb on the injury reserve. Their absence will affect Aaron Rodgers’ ability to dominate this game with his passing game.

Also, the Packers will be without several players on defense as well. The likes of Rashan Gary, Shemar Jean-Charles, De’Vondre Campbell, and Tipa Galeai will not be able to play in this game. Green Bay is ranked only 26th in rush defense as they are allowing 140.6 rushing yards per game this season.

The Green Bay rush defense will have issues on Thursday as they will be facing the best running back in the NFL in Derrick Henry. Henry is averaging over 102 rushing yards per game and has rushed for over 100 yards in four out of his last four games played.

The Titans have been playing well as of late with six wins in their last seven games and their only defeat being a 3-point setback against the Kansas City Chiefs. Green Bay just broke out of its slump but Tennessee looks like it’s playing better right now.

Prediction: Tennessee Titans

Titans vs Packers ATS Prediction

The Packers have covered the betting spread in two out of their last three games played against the Titans.

Tennessee Titans ATS trends:

• The Titans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Titans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
• The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• The Titans are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• The Titans are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• The Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 11.

Green Bay Packers ATS trends:

• The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
• The Packers are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games on grass.
• The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
• The Packers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Packers are 12-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• The Packers are 39-17-1 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win.
• The Packers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The Packers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.

There’s no question that the Packers play their best football at home. Last week’s effort looked encouraging as the Packers snapped their losing skid. Rodgers looked like himself for the first time in a long time this season and all of a sudden, they have life. A win here will get them back in the thick of the playoff hunt and that should be a big motivating factor here.

However, Tennessee is a well-coached team. Although they don’t do anything special, they are a solid team that is playing well right now. Green Bay’s inability to stop the run will give Derrick Henry plenty of opportunities here. The absence of two key receivers will hurt a Green Bay offense that is struggling to score. Give me the Titans to cover the spread.

Prediction: Titans +3

Titans vs Packers Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played between these two teams. The over is also 4-1 in their last five games played at Lambeau Field.

Tennessee Titans over/under trends:

• The under is 6-0 in the Titans’ last 6 games overall.
• The under is 6-0 in the Titans’ last 6 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 4-0 in the Titans’ last 4 against a team with a losing record.
• The under is 4-0 in the Titans’ last 4 road games.
• The under is 11-1 in the Titans’ last 12 games on grass.
• The under is 10-1 in the Titans’ last 11 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 13-3 in the Titans’ last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The over is 6-1 in the Titans’ last 7 road games versus a team with a losing home record.

Green Bay Packers over/under trends:

• The over is 8-1 in the Packers’ last 9 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Packers’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Packers’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 4-1 in the Packers’ last 5 games in Week 11.
• The over is 8-3 in the Packers’ last 11 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
• The over is 5-2 in the Packers’ last 7 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 9-3 in the Packers’ last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2 in the Packers’ last 7 versus a team with a winning record.
• The under is 16-7 in the Packers’ last 23 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

The Packers are ranked 24th in the NFL in scoring at 18.5 points per game this season. The Titans are even worse at 25th overall and scoring just 18.4 points per game this season.

Tennessee has scored less than 20 points per game in their last four games played while Green Bay has scored less than 20 points thrice in their last five games played. It doesn’t help that the Titans are ranked in scoring defense at only 18.7 points per game allowed. Factor in the players that the Packers are missing on offense and this one should end up short of the total.

Prediction: Under 42