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UFC Vegas 16 Prelims Undercard Betting Preview

The UFC will head back to its APEX Facility in Las Vegas, Nevada for this week’s event called UFC Vegas 16 on December 5, 2020.

The event will be headlined by Jack Hermannson taking on Marvin Vettori in a bout that has been remodeled twice. Hermansson was supposed to fight Darren Till at this event but after the Gorilla pulled out, he was given Kevin Holland as his replacement opponent. Holland tested positive for COVID-19 and has been replaced by Marvin Vettori. This is an important fight for Hermansson because a win could lead to a title shot against Israel Adesanya.

Before the main event, an exciting lineup of prelims undercard bouts precedes the show. Let’s take a look at who will be fighting before Saturday’s main card begins:

Gabriel Benitez vs Justin Jaynes

Gabriel Benitez is a former Xtreme Kombat featherweight champion and a contestant at The Ultimate Fighter Latin America 1 tournament. The 32-year old from Tijuana, Baja in California won his initial two UFC assignments but is just 3-4 since then and is coming off back to back losses to Sodiq Yusuff and Omar Morales. He is a southpaw who stands 5-8 tall with a reach of 71 inches. His record stands at 21-8 with seven knockouts and 10 wins via submission.

Justin Jaynes is the former Warrior Xtreme Cagefighting lightweight champion. The 31-year old from Richmond, Michigan was a late replacement for Matt Frevola at UFC Vegas 3 where he knocked out Frank Camacho in a Performance of the Night winning effort. Jaynes is coming off a loss to Gavin Tucker and has a record of 16-5 with eight knockouts and five wins via submission. He is 5-7 tall with a reach of 68 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.

  • Moneyline Odds: Benitez -205, Jaynes +175
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 12/03/2020

Benitez’s kickboxing is going to cause problems for Jaynes whose lack of cardio and limited striking skills came back to haunt him in his last bout. Considering that fight was less than four months ago, it’s hard to expect Jaynes to improve in those departments. The only way I think Jaynes wins this is if he can turn this into a wrestling match which won’t be easy to do because Benitez is a tough man to put down. I think Benitez has the gas tank to survive the scrambles. He keeps on bringing this fight back to the feet where his leg kicks will weaken Jaynes.

Prediction: Gabriel Benitez

Louis Smolka vs Jose Alberto Quinonez

Louis Smolka is the former Pacific Xtreme Combat champion who also fought for Destiny MMA and King of Cage. The 29-year old from Kapolei, Hawaii won five of his first six UFC bouts but is just 5-6 since then. Smolka has been submitted in two out of his last three bouts and has a record of 16-7 with seven knockouts and seven wins via submission. He is 5-9 tall with a reach of 68 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Jose Alberto Quinonez was a contestant at The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 1 tournament and lost in the finals to Alejandro Perez. The 30-year old from Zacatecas, Mexico won his first four UFC bouts but is just 1-2 in his last three and is coming off a TKO loss to Sean O’Malley at UFC 248. Quinonez is a southpaw who stands 5-8 tall and has a reach of 69 inches. His record is 8-4 with two knockouts and one win via submission.

  • Moneyline Odds: Smolka -130, Quinonez +110
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 12/03/2020

Quinonez is a natural bantamweight who is fighting an opponent whose best work was at 125 pounds. He also looks to have the edge in boxing and wrestling. Smolka though needs only one mistake from Quinonez to score a submission finish but he is unlikely to get near his opponent without getting pummeled. For as long as Quinonez doesn’t try his luck against Smolka’s guard, he is going to outstrike Smolka for the win.

Prediction: Alberto Quinonez

Matt Wiman vs Jordan Leavitt

Matt Wiman fought for XFL before joining the UFC in 2006. The 37-year old from Denver, Colorado is 6-6 in his last 12 UFC bouts but has won just once in his last four bouts. Wiman is 5-10 tall with a reach of 68 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. He has a record of 16-9 with four knockouts and five wins via submission.

Jordan Leavitt fought for Gladiator Challenge and LFA before joining the UFC via the Contender Series. The 25-year old from Las, Vegas Nevada will be making his UFC debut in this bout and he has a record of 7-0 with five wins via submission. Leavitt is a 5-9 southpaw who has a reach of 71 inches.

  • Moneyline Odds: Wiman +300, Leavitt -400
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 12/03/2020

Wiman is the shorter man by one inch and he gives up four inches of reach. He’s been picked apart in the mat by two grappling specialists in his last two bouts and he’s facing a third one here. If this fight happened a couple of years ago, I would pick Wiman to outstrike Leavitt or control the wrestling. But he’s looked helpless in his last two bouts and I don’t see anything changing here. I’m not sure if Leavitt can force Wiman to tap out but takedowns and submission attempts will get Leavitt the nod here.

Prediction: Jordan Leavitt

Jimmy Flick vs Cody Durden

Jimmy Flick is a veteran who fought for promotions like XFL, LFC, and LFA before making an appearance in the Contender Series last September where he submitted Nate Smith. The 30-year old from Oklahoma is making his Octagon debut in this bout and he has a record of 15-5 with 13 wins via submission. Flick is a 5-7 orthodox fighter who has a reach of 68 inches.

Cody Durden fought for NFC and 864 Fighting before joining the UFC this year. His Octagon debut against Chris Gutierrez ended in a unanimous draw. Prior to that, he won seven consecutive bouts all via stoppage. Durden has a record of 11-2 with five knockouts and five wins via submission. He stands 5-7 tall with a reach of 67 inches and is a southpaw.

  • Moneyline Odds: Flick -161, Durden +141
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 12/03/2020

Durden is taller by an inch but gives up 3.5 inches in reach. He is also the better takedown artist here but Flick has excellent front chokes, scrambling skills, and sweeps that should offset his disadvantage. This is a battle between a good grappler and a good submission artist so this fight is definitely going to the mat, either way. But whether he takes Durden down or catches him while trying to go for his own takedown, Flick is slick enough to get his arms around Durden’s neck before this fight is over. I like the submission artist to win.

Prediction: Jimmy Flick

Ilia Topuria vs Damon Jackson

Spain’s Ilia Topuria fought for Cage Warriors and Brave CF before joining the UFC. The 23-year old from Alicante, Spain won his Octagon debut against Youssef Zalal last October and will be making a quick turnaround. He is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-7 tall with a reach of 69 inches.

Damon Jackson is the former Legacy FC interim bantamweight champion. The 32-year old from Durant, Oklahoma also fought for Bellator MMA and King of the Cage. He has won seven out of his last eight bouts, all via stoppage including eight choke-outs. Jackson won his UFC debut against Mirsad Bektic. He is a 5-11 switch hitter who has a reach of 71 inches

  • Moneyline Odds: Topuria -240, Jackson +205
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 12/03/2020

Topuria’s heavy hands and good wrestling are enough to take away Jackson’s dangerous submission game and control this fight on the feet. However, if he wants to test his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu versus the more seasoned Jackson, he could find himself in trouble. But Topuria has looked smart in his previous fights and although he has a smaller room for error against Jackson, he should be able to keep this fight on his feet for the most part. Topuria dominates a striking battle and may land that big right hand and score a KO here.

Prediction: Ilia Topuria

Gian Villante vs Jake Collier

Gian Villante competed for Strikeforce and has been with the UFC since 2013. This former Ring of Combat heavyweight and light heavyweight champion. Villante is just 2-5 in his last seven bouts and is coming off a submission loss to Maurice Greene. He has a record of 17-12 with 10 knockouts and two wins via submission. Villante is an orthodox fighter who stands 6-3 tall and has a reach of 76 inches.

Jake Collier fought for Rumble Time Promotions and Cage Championships before entering the UFC in 2014. He has alternated losses and wins inside the octagon and is coming off a TKO loss to Tom Aspinall last July. Collier is 6-3 tall with a reach of 78 inches and is an orthodox fighter. He has a record of 11-5 with five knockouts and three wins via submission.

  • Moneyline Odds: Villante -190, Collier +165
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 12/03/2020

These two moved up to heavyweight not because they have outgrown their weight classes but because they are undisciplined and have added to the waistline. Neither is poised to become a factor in the heavyweight division or any weight class at all. They aren’t too skilled and both rely much on their power. This isn’t a fight I like to pick but between these two, I think that size will be the difference here. Villante is a mediocre light heavyweight taking on a mediocre middleweight in Collier. I’ll take the bigger fighter in this bout.

Prediction: Gian Villante

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