Blake Daniels, November 29, 2022

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The Golden State Warriors hit the road and travel to the American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday night. This will be a rematch of the 2022 Western Conference Finals which the Warriors won in six games.

Golden State has won three in a row and they are coming off a 137-114 blowout win against the Minnesota Timberwolves last Sunday. The win was their 3rd straight and 5th in their last 6 overall. The Dubs are 11-10 SU on the season and are 3rd in the latest Pacific Division team standings.

Dallas has struggled as of late as they have lost four in a row heading to this home game. The Mavs were beaten by the Milwaukee Bucks 124-115 in their last game. The Mavs are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games and they have dropped to 9-10 SU on the year, 3rd in the Southwest Division team standings.

This is the first meeting between these two teams this season. Golden State defeated Dallas 120-110 in Oakland in their most recent head-to-head meeting last May 26, 2022.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State struggled to start the season but they have seemed to have found their groove as of late. The Dubs have won their last three assignments and head to Dallas after defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last game.

Steph Curry led the Warriors with 25 points and 11 rebounds while Jordan Poole added 24 off the bench. Draymond Green also posted a double-double with 19 points and 11 assists while Andrew Wiggins scored 17 and Donte DiVincenzo 14.

Curry leads the team scoring 31.4 points per game while Wiggins is putting up 19.1 PPG. Klay Thompson is averaging 17.7 points per game while Jordan Poole is chipping in 16.2 PPG. The Dubs are shooting 48.3% from the field and 38.2% from deep as a team. The Dubs are 28th in scoring defense as they surrender 117.3 points per game while scoring 117.8 PPG themselves.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are struggling right now with four straight losses. In their last game, Dallas got beaten by the Milwaukee Bucks. The Mavs trailed 41-33 after the first quarter and were never able to get back in the game.

Luk Doncic led the Mavs with 27 points and 12 rebounds while Spencer Dinwiddie added 22. Dallas also got 21 points off the bench from Christian Wood while Dorian Finney-Smith contributed 13 points.

Doncic is averaging 33.1 points per game, no. 1 in the entire NBA. Meanwhile, Dinwiddie and Wood are each putting up 17.1 points per game while Tim Hardaway Jr. is the only other player to average in double digits at 10.2 PPG. Dallas is just 26th in scoring at 109.1 points per game this season but their defense is solid at 107.3 points per game allowed, third best in the league.

Warriors vs Mavericks SU Prediction

The Warriors are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the Mavericks. Dallas is 4-1 SU in their last five home games against Golden State.

Golden State Warriors SU trends:

• The Warriors are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Warriors are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games played on the road.
• The Warriors are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games played against the Southwest Division.
• The Warriors are 4-1 SU in their last 5 November games.

Dallas Mavericks SU trends:

• The Mavericks are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Mavericks are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played at home.
• The Mavericks are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against the Pacific Division.
• The Mavericks are 1-4 SU in their last 5 November games.

The Warriors beat the Mavs in the 2022 Western Conference Finals, en route to winning the NBA title. Since then, Dallas has seen major changes as they lost Jalen Brunson in free agency but were able to acquire Christian Wood from the Rockets.

Wood is averaging 17.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, both second on the team. He is also shooting 56.6% from the field and 43.9% from deep. Wood is coming off a 21-point effort during the Mavs’ loss to the Bucks the last time out.

But while Wood is putting up impressive numbers, he isn’t providing the same playmaking and clutch shooting that Brunson gave the Mavs during their run to the Western Conference Finals last season. As a result, the Mavs have released Facundo Campazzo to create a vacant roster spot which is reportedly for Kemba Walker.

The Warriors have won their last three games played and during that stretch, Klay Thompson has averaged 19.7 points per game while making a total of 14 three-pointers. Andrew Wiggins has also played well during this period with 12 3-pointers and a scoring average of 22.9 per game.

For as long as the Golden State supporting cast shows up and helps Steph Curry with the scoring load, the defending champions will be tough to beat. Doncic is leading the league in scoring but the Mavs miss Brunson’s scoring production badly. There are other good scorers on the team but put them side by side with the Dubs, Golden State is more loaded with scorers and will outscore the Mavs here.

I expect a high-scoring shootout between these two teams and pick the Warriors to emerge victorious.

Prediction: Golden State Warriors -118

Warriors vs Mavericks ATS Prediction

The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Mavericks. Golden State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in Dallas.

Golden State Warriors ATS trends:

• The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up win.
• The Warriors are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.
• The Warriors are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600.
• The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The Warriors are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games.
• The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games.

Dallas Mavericks ATS trends:

• The Mavericks are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
• The Mavericks are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• The Mavericks are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.
• The Mavericks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The Mavericks are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Mavericks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 day of rest.
• The Mavericks are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Both teams are at opposite poles right now. The Warriors are picking up the slack and Klay Thompson has been hitting his mark. The Mavs have lost four in a row and are about to sign Kemba Walker to try and end their slump.

I’m not sure that Golden State can put the clamps on Doncic here. However, the Warriors have the offensive firepower to bury the Mavs. Now that Klay Thompson is starting to find his old form, the Warriors have looked nearly unstoppable. I think Golden State beats Dallas in a track meet.

Prediction: Warriors -1

Warriors vs Mavericks Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in 15 out of the last 21 games played between these two teams. The over is 9-2 in their last 11 games played in Dallas.

Golden State Warriors over/under trends:

• The over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 overall.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 road games.
• The over is 4-0-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The over is 6-0-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The over is 4-0 in the Warriors’ last 4 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The over is 7-1 in the Warriors’ last 8 vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 6 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 15-7 in the Warriors’ last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The under is 40-17 in the Warriors’ last 57 Tuesday games.

Dallas Mavericks over/under trends:

• The under is 36-16 in the Mavericks’ last 52 home games.
• The under is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 9-1 in the Mavericks’ last 10 games following a straight-up loss.
• The over is 7-2 in the Mavericks’ last 9 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The over is 13-5 in the Mavericks’ last 18 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The over is 10-4 in the Mavericks’ last 14 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

These are two of the top OVER teams in the NBA this season. The Warriors are second overall with the OVER going 12-8-1 in their 21 games played this season. Meanwhile, the Mavs are 4th with the OVER hitting in 11 of their 19 games played this year.

The Warriors lead the league in pace at 105.3 and are 9th in offensive efficiency at 111.5. The Mavs are the opposite in pace, at last in the NBA, with their 97.3. However, Dallas is 12th in offensive efficiency at 110.6.

Golden State has scored at least 124 points in four out of their last 5 games played while Dallas has conceded at least 124 points twice in their last three games played.

The Dubs’ pace will force the Mavericks to catch up and Dallas has the firepower to engage the Warriors in a scoring duel. I like the teams to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 228.5