The Golden State Warriors hit the road for the third time in their first four games as they head to the Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Golden State is off to a 3-0 start this season, opening their campaign with back-to-back wins at Staples Center against the Lakers and Clippers. In their last game, the Dubs cruised past their Pacific Division rivals Sacramento Kings to take the early division lead. Steph Curry and Jordan Poole have been terrific in the backcourt and they have combined to score nearly 50 points per game.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are on the opposite pole with a 0-3 record with all their losses coming via double-digit margin. The Thunder are on a rebuild mode with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the only legitimate scorer on the club. Aside from SGA, only Mike Muscala is scoring in double figures at 11.0 points per game. The Thunder have scored just an average of 93.33 points per game after three games played. If they want to win games, they need to score more points.
After a triple-double on opening night and 45 points in Game 2, Steph Curry became the first Warriors player to reach 5,000 assists as he led the Warriors to a comfortable win over the Sacramento Kings. Curry had a double-double with 27 points and 10 assists against the Kings and is off to an MVP start to the season.
Jordan Poole, who is starting in the absence of Klay Thompson, is averaging 17 points per game and scored 22 points in their last game. Draymond Green delivered an all-around performance with 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists. Golden State looks in mid-season shape already and we have played just three games.
The OKC backcourt had a big game in the Thunder’s last game against the Sixers with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scoring 29 points and Josh Giddey adding 19 points with 7 assists but their production wasn’t enough to prevent the Philadelphia 76ers from winning the game. The loss was OKC’s third straight to start the year and they look forward to catching the Warriors sleeping after a day off.
Lu Dort was the only other Thunder to score in double digits with 13 points against the Sixers. OKC made only 8 out of 31 three-pointers or 25.8% and scored a season-high 103 points against Philly. The main difference was points in the paint as the Thunder were outscored by the Sixers 54-38 in that department.
Golden State is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played. The Warriors are 2-0 SU in two road games played this season, 4-1 SU in their last five October games, and 7-1 SU in their last eight games against the Northwest Division. Oklahoma City is 1-12 SU in their last 13 games played. The Thunder are 1-16 SU in their last 17 games against an opponent from the Western Conference.
Head to head, The Warriors ae 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against The Thunder, including 3-0 in their last three meetings. Golden State is also 4-1 SU in their last five games played in Oklahoma City.
Steph Curry is picking up where he left off last season. He had a triple-double against the Lakers, then scored 45 points against the Clippers, and then fell three rebounds short of another triple-double the last time out against the Kings. At 31 PPG, Curry ranks 4th in the league in scoring while his current backcourt partner Jordan Poole is contributing 17 points per game.
The Thunder are 0-3 as expected and have lost by margins of 21, 33, and 12 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 20 points per game but only Mike Muscala is the other player scoring in double digits. Defensively, the Thunder have conceded an average of 115 points per game and they are going to have their hands full against Curry and the Warriors.
OKC doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Golden State. The Warriors are going to beat the Thunder with their explosive offense.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played. Golden State is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against the Western Conference, 8-1 ATS in their last nine games when scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS win, 5-1 ATS in their last six games as betting favorites, 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.
The Thunder are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against an opponent with a winning record. OKC is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games after an ATS loss, 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games as betting underdogs, 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against an opponent with a winning road record, 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, and 8-24 in their last 32 games played overall.
Head to head, the Warriors have covered the spread in each of the last five meetings between these two teams. Golden State is also 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in Oklahoma City.
Steph Curry and Jordan Poole are a menace to opposing backcourts as they are averaging a combined 48 points per game. Meanwhile, Josh Giddey is still adjusting to the NBA game and is scoring just under 10 points per game, which puts a lot of pressure on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to deliver.
OKC has six players averaging at least 9 points per game this season. That shows a balanced scoring team but also reveals that they don’t really have good scoring options outside SGA.
Golden State ranks 6th in the league in scoring and the Thunder don’t have the weapons to keep up with them. OKC’s three losses have been by double digits. This one should be no different.
Prediction: Warriors -9
The total has gone under in four out of the last six games played by the Warriors. The under is 5-1 in their last six games played on the road. The under is also 8-2 in Golden State’s last 10 games as road favorites, 6-2 after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, 38-15 in their last 53 Tuesday games, 5-2 in their last seven games when playing on one-day rest, and 20-8 in their last 28 games played on the road.
The total has gone under in the Thunder’s last five games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. The under is 19-7 in their last 26 games against an opponent with a winning SU record, 5-2 in their last seven games when they allow more than 100 points in their previous game, 6-2 in their last eight October games, and 4-2 in their last six Tuesday games.
Head to head, the total has gone under in 20 out of the last 27 meetings between these two teams. The under is also 5-2 in their last seven games played in Oklahoma City.
Although the Warriors are a very good scoring team, the Thunder are not and that could very well lead this game to the UNDER. OKC has not scored more than 103 points in three games played and they went below the 100 mark in their first two assignments at 86 and 91 points against the Jazz and Rockets, respectively.
The Warriors are hitting 118 points per game this season but with OKC barely hitting the 100-point barrier, Golden State will have a hard time carrying the total to 224 points. Moreso, the Dubs could pull out Curry and the starting unit if they blow the game wide open early, which should lead to a low-scoring game. I think this one falls short of the total.
Prediction: Under 224
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