Since the LSU Tigers were on a bye week last weekend and quarterback Joe Burrow was unable to improve his numbers, it would also hurt him a little bit in the odds. Though he’s still clearly in the hunt at +300, he would lose his top favorite status to the Oklahoma Sooners’ Jalen Hurts who is now placed at +260.
According to online sportsbook Bovada, Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama Crimson Tide) also comes in the second position in a tie with Burrow at +300, while Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin Badgers) takes the fourth spot at +700 odds. Rounding out the top five, we have Justin Fields (Ohio State Buckeyes) sitting at +750. In No. 6 comes Jake Fromm at +1600, while Justin Herbert (Oregon Ducks), Sam Ehlinger (Texas Longhorns) and D’Andre Swift (Georgia Bulldogs) are in a tie for seventh at +4000 to close out the top favorites’ list for us.
To give Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor credit, he’s making a strong case here in the early season for the Heisman Trophy, but let’s be honest here, it’s usually a quarterback who takes home this award. Also to his credit, he’s been increasing in the odds, but not only does he have to maintain his level of play, but he also has to jump over a hurdle of quarterbacks in order to be the Heisman winner — Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovaila are all ahead of Taylor in the odds.
Thus far this season, Alabama’s Jalen Hurts, in particular, has been blazing the competition, throwing for 1,295 yards and twelve touchdowns in only four games — and that’s just in the air. Running the ball, he’s added 443 yards and an additional five touchdowns. Altogether, he’s scored 17 touchdowns in four games, just incredible numbers. If Hurts wins the Heisman Trophy, he’ll be the third straight player coached by Lincoln Riley to accomplish the feat.
As far as Trevor Lawrence (Clemson Tigers) is concerned, someone who was expected to be a Heisman finalist back in preseason, he has massively dropped in the odds and is down to +5000 now after Clemson would have to squeak out a 21-20 win last weekend over the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Let’s go over the latest odds for who are the top favorites to win the Heisman Trophy entering Week 6 of the NCAA college football season, and afterwards, I’ll be giving you my prediction (and long shot pick) for who will be the winner of the award. After you read and get your advice from me, you can then place your bet(s) over at one of the top football betting sites.
We’ve already went into Jalen Hurts a little bit earlier, but we have to get into him a little bit deeper, there’s a reason(s) why he’s the favorite to win the 2019 Heisman Trophy. First off, you have to start out with his statistics, which are superb numbers. Through just four games, he would throw for a total of 1,295 passing yards and would also collect 12 touchdowns while throwing just one interception for the year. On top of that, he has completed an outstanding 77.6% of his passes. Hurts’ arm isn’t the only thing tearing up opposition though, he’s also compiled 443 rushing yards in just four games and has put up five touchdowns as well. In total, that brings him to 17 touchdowns for the season, and again, this is only in four games. It’s just been an incredible season for the former Crimson Tide, and now you see why he’s the favorite in the odds.
LSU’s Joe Burrow is a pure threat from the air, though he has added another touchdown on the ground — still, don’t expect much from him in terms of rushing, he’s only ran for 20 yards total this season. Back to lighting up competition with his arm though: He’s been lights out this season, putting up 1,520 yards while also collecting 17 touchdowns, all while just throwing for two interceptions for the year. As far as the accuracy is concerned, he actually tops Jalen Hurts in that, completing 80.6% of his passes. But speaking of Hurts, you have to continue to make him the favorite in this because of how much of a threat he is both in the air and on the ground. Burrow is a fantastic quarterback and deserves his respect, but Jalen Hurts is just putting in way too much work for the Oklahoma Sooners right now.
Like Joe Burrow, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa has been effective solely through the air, but man, he has been near-perfect this season, and is debatably the favorite over Jalen Hurts right now. And this for two reasons: 1. Tagovailoa finished second in last year’s Heisman voting. And 2. He’s the favorite to be the Miami Dolphins’ top pick in next year’s NFL Draft. And when you look at his numbers, you understand why: Completing 76.4% of his passes this season, Tagovailoa has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards already in just five games, collecting 1,718 total. To go along with those flashy digits, he also has over the 20 touchdown threshold already at 23, and with no interceptions to show for it. Say what you want about him being in Nick Saban’s system and the talent surrounding him, but it’s pretty impressive to literally have zero interceptions. I look for this kid’s odds to continue to rise to the top as the season progresses.
Jonathan Taylor has been doing his thing this year, but he has two issues as far as his Heisman candidacy is concerned: First, he’s a running back, and like I’ve already mentioned, most of the time it’s a quarterback who takes home the award. Second, he’s on the Wisconsin Badgers, a team who doesn’t get the national spot light like the Alabama Crimson Tide or Oklahoma Sooners. Still, Taylor has had a solid season in 2019. In four games this year, he’s put up 559 rushing yards and has also punched in eight touchdowns — obviously an average of two TD’s per game, not bad. As far as yardage is concerned, he hasn’t been the most effective in the receiving department, but he does have three touchdowns catching the ball for 11 altogether. If Taylor can keep up this level of play, he’ll have a great chance of putting himself in New York City as a finalist, but winning the Heisman is a bit of a stretch. Remember what I said: Positions outside of quarterback have a hard time winning the award.
Though not as great as Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, the numbers are similar from Justin Fields as far as perfection is concerned, but again, don’t expect the same elite numbers from Fields as Tagovailoa. With that being said, Fields is also being productive on the ground as well. In the air this season, Fields has thrown for 1,092 yards and 16 touchdowns, and here’s the perfection for you: Zero interceptions, and all of this through five games. As far as his completion percentage is concerned, that’s been solid too at 69.8%. On the ground, he’s added a total of 222 yards and put up seven scores as well. Altogether, Fields has scored 23 touchdowns this season, another amount similar to Tagovailoa. Now I’m not saying put Justin Fields up there with Tua Tagovailoa or anything, but watch this kid a little bit this year, he’s got some tools to work with up there at Ohio State, and this is coming from a Michigan guy.
And now the statistics start to drop off, and as a result, we’ve also dropped off in the betting odds. I love Jake Fromm and the Georgia Bulldogs, but there’s definitely some room for improvement, especially if Fromm wants to be taken seriously as far as a real Heisman contender is concerned. In four games this season, he’s thrown for just 788 passing yards (75.6 completion percentage) and only has six touchdowns to go along with that stat line. See what I mean? There’s plenty of room for improvement here. It’s even worse when you consider the level of competition that Georgia has been playing to start out the season as well: at Vanderbilt Commodores, vs. Murray State Racers, vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves — Fromm should have huge games in those three. With that being said, I’m not expecting Jake Fromm to turn into Jake Heisman anytime soon.
Again, I love the Georgia Bulldogs, but D’Andre Swift is another one to keep your money away from, especially considering Swift is another non-quarterback that I’ve already warned you about. But it’s not just that, his numbers aren’t exactly screaming Heisman or anything. For the year in four games, he’s racked up 388 rushing yards and three touchdowns. As far as the yardage is concerned, it isn’t that bad, but again, this piece is about who is going to win the Heisman Trophy — Swift’s numbers aren’t capable of that, and like Framm, there’s plenty of room for improvement. It’s not surprising that the Bulldogs would hammer Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State, but now you see a little bit of why Georgia wasn’t exactly the most dominant against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish like a lot of pundits thought would happen. It’ll be interesting to see how this team progresses through the SEC schedule.
I’m honestly a bit surprised that Sam Ehlinger is so low in the odds at +4000, because his numbers have been great from the passing end this season, and he also has a little effectiveness running the ball as well. In the throwing attack, he averages 300 yards-per-game collecting a total of 1,237 passing yards. On top of that, he’s also been putting up points on the scoreboard with 15 touchdown and he’s only thrown one interception — his completion percentage has been solid as well at 72.9%. Ehlinger has done a little bit of work for the Longhorns in the rushing attack as well, racking up 191 yards and he’s also punched in a touchdown to go along with it. It’s been a pretty great season for Sam Ehlinger, and at +4000, those are some pretty profitable odds to place a excellent long shot bet on.
Justin Herbert has been pretty solid for the Oregon Ducks this season, also being one of the quarterbacks with no interceptions through four games. I don’t have Herbert as my Heisman winner right now or anything, but I do expect this kid to rise from the low +4000 market. For the year, he nearly averages 300 passing yards-per-game with a total of 1,127 yards altogether. He’s also thrown for 14 touchdowns and has a perfect zero interceptions to go along with it. It’s been a pretty good year for the Oregon quarterback, but I think that’s the problem, he’s not getting much shine due to him playing on the west coast. But obviously, the numbers also aren’t worthy of winning the Heisman Trophy compared to his opposition — and the loss to Auburn in Week 1 didn’t help either. You can look forward to Herbert’s odds to rise, but don’t expect a Heisman here.
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