Could Dak Prescott put himself in a real position to become the 2019 NFL MVP? Well, oddsmakers seem to think that’s the case.
According to online sportsbook BetOnline, Prescott’s stock has shot up from +900 to +700 within a week to take home the most prestigious individual award in the National Football League. Two games ago against the Miami Dolphins, Prescott actually wasn’t the best in the first half, but after some adjustments at halftime, Prescott would come out and do his thing throwing for 246 yards and two touchdowns off of 19-for-32 passing in a 31-6 blowout win — on top of that, he would also punch in a rushing touchdown for three altogether that day. The next week against a tough New Orleans Saints defense, he would have his worst game of the season, but the nice chunk of 223 yards that he would throw for would still help out with his MVP odds.
Dak Prescott has consistently been moving up the odds since the season has started, and now heading into Week 5, Prescott is now in the third position in a tie with the legendary Tom Brady at +700, and that comes behind second-place Lamar Jackson at +500 and the favorite to win the Most Valuable Player in Patrick Mahomes at +100. As far as the rest of the top 10 is concerned, Aaron Rodgers rounds out the top five in fifth place at +1000, while Deshaun Watson starts us off outside of that top five in sixth at +1200 odds. After that, the odds really start to drop off, going to Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson in a tie for seventh at +2800. In the ninth spot, you have Jared Goff and his +3300 odds, and Jimmy Garoppolo takes us to the end of the list at +4000.
Going to the favorite Patrick Mahomes and his +100 odds, he’s getting closer and closer to hitting minus-money as the season progresses. As a matter of fact, next week may be the week where we see Mahomes hit that territory. Before we even arrived into Week 3, Mahomes was listed as high as +200, and with four weeks out of the way now, Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense is just as potent as ever. Hell, they even have their receiver Tyreek Hill out with an injury and they’re still lighting up opposition — that’s bound to happen when you’re still loaded with talent though. Patrick Mahomes, his talent and the talent that surrounds him has Mahomes in a perfect position to repeat as the Most Valuable Player of the NFL.
Just last weekend, Tom Brady was placed at +300 odds to win the MVP, but after a 16-10 New England Patriots struggle win over the Buffalo Bills, Brady has shot down 400 points at +700 — a bit unfair considering the Patriots have gotten out to a dominating 4-0 start. With that being said though, the unfairness is creating a lot of profitability for people who decide to take advantage of his odds. I don’t think I have to remind you, but this is a guy who has six Super Bowls on his resume, still has a massive chip on his shoulder and has lit up competition this season other than the game against the Buffalo Bills — hey, bad games happen. The point is: He’s having an MVP-caliber season, and there’s a crap load of value with him at +700.
Let’s go over the top favorites and their betting odds to win the 2019 NFL Most Valuable Player award, and then afterwards, I’ll be giving you my personal prediction (and long shot pick) for who I have as my MVP heading into Week 5 of the NFL regular season. After you read and get your advice from me, you can then place your bet(s) over at one of the top football betting sites.
Patrick Mahomes picked up where he left on in 2018, playing incredible football in the first four weeks of the season. Already, Mahomes has tallied a total of 1,510 passing yards and 10 touchdowns, and the best part, he’s perfect with no interceptions thus far. As far as his yardage is concerned, that’s a potent average of 377.5 yards-per-game. When you break down the numbers even more, nearly every pass that Mahomes throws is a first down, averaging 9.7 yards-per-pass. It’s been some pretty impressive stuff as we’ve gotten accustomed to seeing from last year’s MVP. Another number that I could throw at you is his 67.9 completion percentage, and it’s how he does it that is so crazy, throwing a lot of passes sideways to confuse the opposition. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see this kid repeat as MVP.
He hasn’t put up Patrick Mahomes numbers or anything, but the second-year quarterback out of Louisville has been fantastic this season. For the year, Lamar Jackson has put up 1,110 passing yards and he’s also tied with the MVP-favorite Mahomes in touchdown passes at 10 this season. Here is what makes Jackson such a threat though, and why he’s the second-favorite in the odds: Not only can he throw, but he’s effective on the ground. So far this season, he’s ran for 238 rushing yards and he also punched in a touchdown as well, making that 11 which tallies over Mahomes. At least with the scoring side, Jackson certainly makes his case of why he should be this year’s MVP instead. Overall though, you still have to side with Patrick Mahomes over Lamar Jackson, and that’s because Mahomes is perfect so far this season, with Jackson having two interceptions thus far. Great season from Lamar Jackson though.
Getting back to Dak Prescott, he’s been solid for the Dallas Cowboys this season, compiling a total of 1,143 passing yards and nine touchdowns. It’s not bad, especially considering his yards-per-game average is 285.8, but I’m not a fan of his three interceptions in four games. I fully understand why he’s getting his respect with the oddsmakers and the rest of the gambling community, but with me personally, he needs to clean up the turnover rate — especially if you want the MVP over Patrick Mahomes, come on now. Like Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, Prescott has also managed to hit double touchdowns, having 10 altogether with a rushing touchdown. There’s not much in yardage though, so don’t expect much there, but he is a nice end-zone threat. Good pick, for sure, I get why he’s on the rise, you’ve got to love his scoring.
Other than the game against the Buffalo Bills, the 42-year-old Tom Brady has been playing some dominant football this season. For the year, he’s collected 1,061 passing yards, an average of 265.2 yards-per-game, and has thrown for seven touchdowns. You understand his drop in the odds now, don’t you? Let’s break it down game-by-game though, and I don’t think you’ll see the same profitability that I do other than the obvious of him being a legend: Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (341 YDS, 3 TDS), Week 2 at Miami Dolphins (264 YDS, 2 TDS), Week 3 vs. New York Jets (306 YDS, 2 TDS) and Week 4 at Buffalo Bills (150 YDS, 0 TDS) — do you see what I mean? The latest drop in odds has been because of that Buffalo game. You place a bet on Tom Brady now at +700, and there’s a very good shot of that paying off nicely.
Aaron Rodgers would be a solid long shot pick to make with his +1000 odds, because even though his numbers haven’t been the most flashy, this is still Aaron Rodgers that we’re talking about here. For the season thus far, Rodgers has tallied a total of 1,069 passing yards and has six scores with that number, this to go along with just one interception in his defense. Overall, it’s not that bad with an average of 267.2 yards-per-game, but it’s certainly not worth being named the Most Valuable Player. But here’s the thing about Rodgers’ numbers: Here in the early season, he’s faced off against some tough teams in the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles. In his defense, it’s been some stiff competition, and you have to look for him to get better as the season goes along. Take him now while he’s still at four-digits, there’s certainly a lot of profitability here.
We’ve already seen the statistic drop off a little bit, and now you’re about to witness the name-value slightly drop starting with Deshaun Watson and his +2000 odds. For the season, he’s been pretty solid with 938 passing yards (234.5 yards-per-game) and six touchdowns, but as you see, that’s no where good enough to become the NFL MVP. But that’s not to take anything away from Watson, like I said, he’s been having a pretty successful season. His other numbers include a 65.1 completion percentage and he’s also thrown for just one interception this year. Watson also has some effectiveness on the ground, especially with scoring touchdowns, adding three to his resume for 12 combined so far. Not a bad season, not bad at all.
Now the odds really start to drop off, with Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz having a mediocre year at best averaging 240.8 passing yards-per-game. In total, Wentz has calculated 963 yards for the season and has thrown for nine touchdowns. He also has two interceptions to go along with the stat line to taint it a bit. He’s effective a bit on the ground, but don’t expect much throughout the season, but he does have a score while running the ball thus far. As you see though, there isn’t much flash here, which explains the hefty +2800 odds. Nothing against Carson Wentz, he isn’t a bad quarterback, but keep your money away from him in this bet.
I absolutely love Russell Wilson as a long shot pick this season. In the past, Wilson has been more of a leader on the team and directing things like a Hollywood producer, being productive enough to get wins. This season though, Wilson is on pace to have the best season of his career, and if he can get them a bit higher, he’ll surely be competing for the MVP. With that being said, his +2800 betting odds are very, very juicy. For the season, he’s thrown for 1,141 yards and also has eight scores to go along with the yardage. And here’s the best part about his stat line: He has no interceptions, playing near-perfect football like MVP-frontrunner Patrick Mahomes. The flash doesn’t stop there either, look at his other numbers: A 72.9 competition percentage, two rushing touchdowns (10 altogether) and he averages 285.2 yards-per-game. I’m loving Russell Wilson with this bet, he can take you to the bank if he steps it up just a little bit.
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